SAT 16:15 ET|KINNICK STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP60|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
0
0-3
9
3
26
44%
30
33
6.3
+4500
+32.0
HOME
40
3-0
69
48
93
34%
64
74
38.3
-100000
-32.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALNIU0—IOWA40
CLOSED IOWA -32.0TOTAL 44.5IOWA COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
NIU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
IOWA
NIU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
IOWA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADIOWA -32.0
IMPLIED — NIU6.3
IMPLIED — IOWA38.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NIURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHERN ILLINOISIOWA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB93%Quinn UrwilerLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFilip MaciorowskiPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarc PrettoPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB89%Jasper BeelerPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob FinleyPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMuhammed JammehS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Mark HensleyPORTAL · MISSOURI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoy WilliamsDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalonnie WilliamsDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL68%Evan MalcoreOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAbiathar CurryOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan TweedyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB58%Chavon WrightRB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLazaro RogersPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB57%Josh HolstPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA STATE · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE49%Jake ApplegetPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGary Givens IIIPORTAL · NEVADA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRoss Ogden · SIGNEE ★3Jack Murray · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTyrese Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · MOREHOUSE COLLEGETyrese Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · MOREHOUSEAvery Jones · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJvon Hatcher · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Hassett · SIGNEE ★3Terry Robinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrendan Alexander · SIGNEE ★3Cian Mahoney · SIGNEE ★3Brendan Grabot · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJaiduan Cranford · SIGNEE ★3Da'sean Howard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBTaron Dickens · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINABryshawn Brown · SIGNEE ★3Asa Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEBraylon Agee · SIGNEE ★3Jermaine Green · SIGNEE ★3Zaire McKinney · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
21.78 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.857 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
11.86 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4444374672 OF 7 GRADED
RB6161267774 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE222235802210 OF 22 GRADED
OL36362440206 OF 20 GRADED
DL252527612313 OF 23 GRADED
LB4141—7105 OF 10 GRADED
DB494931281912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#82 · 0/27 BC39
CLASS RANK TREND+17 · 3 CYCLES84
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NIUROB HARLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNIU OFFENSEIOWA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEIOWA DEFENSE NIU QUARTERBACKSn=754% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE NIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE NIU RUNNING BACKSn=723% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555474%11%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455173%46%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSESECONDARYIOWA DEFENSE NIU PASS CATCHERSn=2220% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM48% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−7
−11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.7%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS78.1%
60.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE8.7%
4.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NIU, ORANGE = IOWA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE