SAT 15:30 ET|HUNTINGTON BANK STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
2-0
86
79
63
34%
89
100
26.5
-110
+1.5
HOME
13
1-1
71
39
57
65%
54
67
28.0
-110
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMSST38—MINN13
CLOSED MINN -1.5TOTAL 54.5MSST COVERED · 51 POINTS · UNDER
MSST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MINN
MSST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MINN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADMINN -1.5
IMPLIED — MSST26.5
IMPLIED — MINN28.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MINNRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
MINNESOTA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSISSIPPI STATEMINNESOTA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB78%Blake ShapenQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB68%Brylan LanierS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahron ManningS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAgo BrumfieldCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB59%Nic MitchellLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranden JenningsLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalick SyllaLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL59%Jacoby JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayvin JamesOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlbert Reese IVOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Seydou TraoreDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenen ThompsonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan MosleyWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Davon BoothRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Kedrick Bingley-JonesPORTAL · ALABAMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRed HibblerDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeonte AndersonDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrodie McWhorter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBralan Womack · SIGNEE ★4Terrell Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Camron Brown · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLTyler Miller · PORTAL ★3 · LSUDalton Toothman · SIGNEE ★3Leon Noil Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEMarquis Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIZayion Cotton · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Cration · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCooper Crosby · SIGNEE ★3Jaeden Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDealyn Evans · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MAmaree Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJayson Jenkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSISSIPPI STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.950 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.250 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.555 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252958052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757807865 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626262522111 OF 21 GRADED
OL585865252213 OF 22 GRADED
DL414177551912 OF 19 GRADED
LB363682100117 OF 11 GRADED
DB585864272413 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE86th86
BLUE-CHIP RATIO38%87
RECRUITING CLASS#23 · 4/28 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 27 IN / 40 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MINNP.J. FLECK10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSSTJEFF LEBBY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSST OFFENSEMINN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMINNESOTA DEFENSE MSST QUARTERBACKSn=520% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE MSST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2275% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE MSST RUNNING BACKSn=622% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556751%22%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456993%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMINNESOTA DEFENSE MSST PASS CATCHERSn=2148% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+14
−10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.5%
44.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS34.4%
78.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE4.8%
6.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSST, ORANGE = MINN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE