SAT 19:30 ET|RESER STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP35|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
35
2-0
80
60
95
53%
87
55
39.0
-3200
-25.5
HOME
24
0-2
45
54
45
58%
81
43
13.5
+1400
+25.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTTU35—ORST24
CLOSED TTU -25.5TOTAL 52.5ORST COVERED · 59 POINTS · OVER
TTU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ORST
TTU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADTTU -25.5
IMPLIED — TTU39.0
IMPLIED — ORST13.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TTURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.5
TEXAS TECH won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.3
OREGON STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS TECHOREGON STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB76%Behren MortonDRAFTED · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitch GriffisPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB59%Jacob RodriguezDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid BaileyDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRomello HeightDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL58%Lee HunterDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE'Maurion BanksDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSkyler Gill-HowardDRAFTED · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE58%Reggie VirgilDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb DouglasDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohncarlos Miller IITE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB37%Cole WisniewskiDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDontae BalfourDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.J. McCartyDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL37%Davion CarterOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill JadosOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrendan Sorsby · PORTAL ★5 · CINCINNATIStephen Cannon · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBCorey Platt Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONAustin Romaine · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATECord Nolan · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLMateen Ibirogba · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTAdam Trick · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMI (OH)LaDamion Guyton · SIGNEE ★53 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMalcolm Simmons · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNChase Campbell · SIGNEE ★4Matt Ludwig · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBDavin Martin · PORTAL ★3 · UTSAS'Vioarean Martin · SIGNEE ★4Donovan Webb · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLJordan Church · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLEFelix Ojo · SIGNEE ★4Bryce Gilmore · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.773 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.964 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.570 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5151899762 OF 6 GRADED
RB6565848173 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE63636252199 OF 19 GRADED
OL66668580215 OF 21 GRADED
DL7777744795 OF 9 GRADED
LB75756757219 OF 21 GRADED
DB68687092229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%77
RECRUITING CLASS#18 · 9/22 BC87
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+5 · 21 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ORSTJAMARCUS SHEPHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TTUJOEY MCGUIRE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTTU OFFENSEORST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS TECH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON STATE DEFENSE TTU QUARTERBACKSn=63% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE TTU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2120% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE TTU RUNNING BACKSn=719% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554753%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS TECH OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON STATE DEFENSE TTU PASS CATCHERSn=1948% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−19
+27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.0%
39.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.2%
92.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TTU, ORANGE = ORST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE