SAT 12:00 ET|BEAVER STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP69|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
1-2
13
6
32
-1%
67
9
4.5
—
+39.5
HOME
55
3-0
82
78
79
8%
64
58
44.0
—
-39.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBUF13—PSU55
CLOSED PSU -39.5TOTAL 48.5PSU COVERED · 68 POINTS · OVER
BUF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
PSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADPSU -39.5
IMPLIED — BUF4.5
IMPLIED — PSU44.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
BUFFALO won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PSURECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.3
PENN STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBUFFALOPENN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Ta'Quan RobersonQB · 88% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGunnar GrayQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL96%Henry TabansiOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor BrockOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler DotyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL87%Malin WhiteDE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobe StewartDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge WoloDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB73%Red MurdockDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion CrawfordPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitchell GonserLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%Victor SnowPORTAL · NC STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNik McMillanPORTAL · KANSAS · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus VelezTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Al-Jay HendersonRB · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLamar SperlingPORTAL · UTEP · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB49%Solomon BrownCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McNairPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis CooperPORTAL · TOWSON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBElijah Holmes · PORTAL ★3 · WINGATEQur'an McNeill · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJoe Crocker · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORNathan Natoli · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLNino Francavilla · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLStantavious Smith · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MLogan Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA-PENNSYLVANIALogan Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · IU PENNSYLVANIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJoey Cheshire · PORTAL ★3 · CORNELLStevie Bracey · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAZach Bergmann · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEAaron Clark · SIGNEE ★3Aiden Howard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChase Enlow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBSayre Smothers · PORTAL ★3 · THE CITADELBryce Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BUFFALO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.214 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
14.811 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.123 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB232317051 OF 5 GRADED
RB34344210063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE36364147229 OF 22 GRADED
OL5555440196 OF 19 GRADED
DL49493067219 OF 21 GRADED
LB46463250157 OF 15 GRADED
DB50503696227 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE13th13
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#101 · 0/19 BC25
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PSUMATT CAMPBELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BUFPETE LEMBO3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBUF OFFENSEPSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBUFFALO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEPENN STATE DEFENSE BUF QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBUFFALO OFFENSEFRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE BUF OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBUFFALO OFFENSEFRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE BUF RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556340%40%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456140%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBUFFALO OFFENSESECONDARYPENN STATE DEFENSE BUF PASS CATCHERSn=2253% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−8
+7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.3%
67.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS71.6%
72.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
7.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BUF, ORANGE = PSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE