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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 3›MSST @ SC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
NCSU @ VAN83
JMU @ SDSU81
UNT @ TXST75
HOU @ TTU73
FLA @ AUB71
WKU @ IU68
MIA @ WAKE67
LSU @ MISS66
TROY @ MIZ65
WYO @ CMU65
USC @ RUTG65
KENT @ OSU64
BYU @ CSU64
UNC @ CLEM63
SMU @ LOU63
M-OH @ CIN62
UK @ TA&M61
SYR @ PITT60
BUF @ PSU60
UTEP @ MICH60
MSST @ SC60
MSU @ ND60
ARST @ TCU60
NIU @ ARIZ60
TEM @ TOL59
LT @ BAY59
GAST @ UCF58
VT @ MD58
WVU @ UVA58
ASU @ KU57
ECU @ ODU57
CONN @ USM57
UGA @ ARK56
BGSU @ ISU55
COLO @ NU55
FSU @ ALA54
OHIO @ USA54
KENN @ TENN54
USU @ UTAH53
WMU @ RICE52
UNM @ OU52
UTSA @ TEX51
GASO @ JXST49
UAB @ UL49
CCU @ DEL48
TULN @ KSU48
EMU @ WIS48
STAN @ DUKE47
PUR @ UCLA45
AKR @ MINN44
FIU @ FAU42
NEV @ MTSU42
FRES @ SJSU42
MRSH @ MOST40
CLT @ APP26
BALL @ LIB24
NDSU @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MISSISSIPPI STATE
SOUTH CAROLINA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 16:15 ET|WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U58.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
27FPI
MSSTSECMISSISSIPPI STATE
2-0
86
79
63
34%
89
100
27.3
+150
+4.0
HOME
—AP
21FPI
SCSECSOUTH CAROLINA
2-0
90
36
79
69%
61
94
31.3
-180
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL58.5
SPREADSC -4.0
IMPLIED — MSST27.3
IMPLIED — SC31.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
7 / 57
BY ENVIRONMENT
35 / 56
DISAGREEMENT28 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 28 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
MSST PACE24.7s
89
SC PACE26.7s
61
SHARED PACE25.7s
75
PLAY VOLUME141
75
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MSST58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
62
PROE
24
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE62p
62
PROE24p
24
TEMPO89p
89
SC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
48
PROE
47
TEMPO
61
EXPLOSIVE48p
48
PROE47p
47
TEMPO61p
61
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SCRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.6
SOUTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSISSIPPI STATESOUTH CAROLINA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB78%Blake ShapenQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB68%Brylan LanierS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahron ManningS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAgo BrumfieldCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB59%Nic MitchellLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranden JenningsLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalick SyllaLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL59%Jacoby JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayvin JamesOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlbert Reese IVOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Seydou TraoreDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenen ThompsonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan MosleyWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Davon BoothRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Kedrick Bingley-JonesPORTAL · ALABAMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRed HibblerDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeonte AndersonDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrodie McWhorter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBralan Womack · SIGNEE ★4Terrell Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Camron Brown · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLTyler Miller · PORTAL ★3 · LSUDalton Toothman · SIGNEE ★3Leon Noil Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEMarquis Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIZayion Cotton · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Cration · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCooper Crosby · SIGNEE ★3Jaeden Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDealyn Evans · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MAmaree Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJayson Jenkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSISSIPPI STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.950 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.250 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.555 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252958052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757807865 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626262522111 OF 21 GRADED
OL585865252213 OF 22 GRADED
DL414177551912 OF 19 GRADED
LB363682100117 OF 11 GRADED
DB585864272413 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE86th86
BLUE-CHIP RATIO38%87
RECRUITING CLASS#23 · 4/28 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 27 IN / 40 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SCSHANE BEAMER6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSSTJEFF LEBBY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
6161
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
33
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSST OFFENSESC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
95
PERF
52
RET
80
NATIONAL
12OF 136
RET
41
FULL DEFENSESOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
MSST QUARTERBACKSn=520% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAMARIO TAYLORQBRET
682ND YR5395★4+21
PARKER PUCKETTQBRET
501ST YR17—UNR—
AJ SWANNQBPORTAL · APP STATE
454TH YR—64★3-19 2025
JADEN RASHADAQBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
403RD YR—45★3-41 2025
BRODIE MCWHORTERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6032%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
4888%44%
SECONDARYDB
6366%35%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
58
RET
25
DL
32OF 138
DL RET
32
LB
67OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
MSST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2275% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CANON BOONEOLRET
544TH YR—61★3+36 2025
JAKHEEM SHUMPERT-PERKINSOLRET
523RD YR——UNR—
SAQUON MILESOLRET
523RD YR——UNR—
TJ LOCKHARTOLRET
522ND YR—72★3—
BLAKE STEENOLRET
503RD YR—78★3-27 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KELBY COLLINSDLPORTAL · ALABAMA
604TH YR7185★3+8
TROY PIKESDTRET
563RD YR7445★3-12
GABRIEL BROWNLOW-DINDYDLRET
544TH YR6489★3-42
TOMIWA DUROJAIYEDLPORTAL · ILLINOIS
534TH YR8298★4-3
NOAH CLARKDLTRUE FR
521ST YR289★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
57
RET
78
DL
32OF 138
DL RET
32
LB
67OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
MSST RUNNING BACKSn=622% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FLUFF BOTHWELLRBRET
573RD YR9295★4+26
XAVIER GAYTENRBRET
543RD YR4684★4+34
J.J. HILLRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1874★3—
KOLIN WILSONRBRET
511ST YR2259★3+35
COOPER CROSBYRBTRUE FR
471ST YR1179★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556032%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454888%44%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
62
RET
52
DB
18OF 138
DB RET
66
SECONDARYSOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
MSST PASS CATCHERSn=2148% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY EVANS IIIWRRET
584TH YR9364★3+3
MATT MAYFIELDWRTRUE FR
523RD YR—74★3—
SANFRISCO MAGEEWRRET
512ND YR3374★3—
RILEY WILLIAMSTEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
503RD YR5545★3+6
SAM WESTTERET
503RD YR3828★3+9
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VICARI SWAINDBRET
823RD YR8693★4-9
PEYTON WILLIAMSDBRET
634TH YR8481★3+47
JUDGE COLLIERDBRET
514TH YR9463★3-20
J'ZAVIEN CURRENCEDBTRUE FR
501ST YR698★4—
KOSCI BARNESDBTRUE FR
491ST YR291★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.9
54.0
— OFFENSE
67.7
65.0
— DEFENSE
36.0
43.0
SP+ OVERALL
10.0
16.9
FPI
12.2
14.7
ELO
1642
1763
TALENT
805
863
PRODUCTION
63
83
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+14
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.38
0.53
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
OFF EFFICIENCY
46
16
DEF EFFICIENCY
32
48
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
80
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
47
83
FINISHING DRIVES
81
5
FIELD POSITION
52
94
TURNOVER MARGIN
49
63
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
PASS RATE
43.8%
44.4%
PACE
24.7s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.5%
59.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
34.4%
61.5%
PLAYS / GAME
73.0
67.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.8%
5.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSST, ORANGE = SC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE