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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›MIZ @ MSST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DAVIS WADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#23AP
26FPI
MIZSECMISSOURI
2-0
87
82
99
42%
84
94
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
27FPI
MSSTSECMISSISSIPPI STATE
2-0
86
79
63
34%
89
99
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MIZ53CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
51
PROE
23
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE51p
51
PROE23p
23
TEMPO84p
84
MSST58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
62
PROE
24
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE62p
62
PROE24p
24
TEMPO89p
89
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MIZRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
MISSOURI won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSOURIMISSISSIPPI STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB81%Marvin Burks Jr.PORTAL · WISCONSIN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONToriano Pride Jr.DRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaylan CarnellS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB76%Beau PribulaPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB70%Josiah TrotterDRAFTED · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil JacobsLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTriston NewsonLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL54%Zion YoungDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris McClellanDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamon Wilson IIPORTAL · MIAMI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE50%Kevin Coleman Jr.DRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh ManningPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis JohnsonPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL44%Keagen TrostDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor TollisonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB9%Marquise DavisPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBElijah Dotson · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANSione Laulea · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONChris Graves Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBAustin Simmons · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSGavin Sidwar · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBRobert Woodyard Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJJ Bush · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLKamauryn Morgan · PORTAL ★4 · BAYLORTajh Overton · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TECayden Lee · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSJabari Brady · SIGNEE ★3Devyon Hill-Lomax · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLLuke Work · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDJ Jones · SIGNEE ★4Braylon Ellison · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSOURI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.557 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.489 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.622 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3939943953 OF 5 GRADED
RB7272575686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE535380602011 OF 20 GRADED
OL666668391910 OF 19 GRADED
DL787871532117 OF 21 GRADED
LB74748478117 OF 11 GRADED
DB616183422116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE87th87
BLUE-CHIP RATIO36%85
RECRUITING CLASS#34 · 4/23 BC75
CLASS RANK TREND-14 · 3 CYCLES22
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 30 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSSTJEFF LEBBY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
6161
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
33
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIZELI DRINKWITZ7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
2323
EXPLOSIVENESS
3232
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HAVOC
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIZ OFFENSEMSST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
114OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
39
RET
39
NATIONAL
57OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSEMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
MIZ QUARTERBACKSn=561% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AUSTIN SIMMONSQBPORTAL · OLE MISS
484TH YR4898★4+33
NICK EVERSQBPORTAL · UCONN
434TH YR6145★3-54
MATT ZOLLERSQBRET
412ND YR4596★4-50
GAVIN SIDWARQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—82★3—
BRETT BROWNQBRET
324TH YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4155%37%
LINEBACKERSLB
36100%27%
SECONDARYDB
5827%29%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
66
RET
39
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
55
LB
112OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
MIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1961% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAYDEN GREENOLRET
724TH YR—100★4+9 2025
DOMINICK GIUDICEOLRET
684TH YR—78★3+43 2025
JOSH ATKINSOLPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
604TH YR—78★3-31 2025
CURTIS PEAGLEROLRET
584TH YR—45★3+19 2025
JACK LANGEOLRET
522ND YR—95★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS27% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WILL WHITSONDLRET
734TH YR5471★3—
KALVIN DINKINSDLRET
554TH YR6765★3-37
TREVION WILLIAMSDLRET
543RD YR8393★4-27
DEALYN EVANSDLPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
522ND YR4992★4—
LAKENDRICK JAMESLBRET
523RD YR26—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
72
RET
56
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
55
LB
112OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
MIZ RUNNING BACKSn=844% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMAL ROBERTSRBRET
784TH YR8178★3+25
PRESTON HATFIELDRBTRUE FR
521ST YR—66★3—
ANTHONY FAVROWRBRET
504TH YR1—UNR—
XAI'SHAUN EDWARDSRBPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
503RD YR—28★3—
MALAE FONOTIRBPORTAL · MONTANA
493RD YR—28★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554155%37%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4536100%27%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
51OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
53
RET
60
DB
39OF 138
DB RET
27
SECONDARYMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
MIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2040% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAYDEN LEEWRPORTAL · OLE MISS
584TH YR9892★4+23
SHAUN TERRY IIWRRET
522ND YR389★4—
DONOVAN OLUGBODEWRRET
522ND YR—96★4+21
DAMARION FOWLKESWRRET
512ND YR182★3—
BRETT NORFLEETTERET
504TH YR9191★4+1
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM73% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAAC SMITHSRET
954TH YR9395★4+47
KENDEL DOLBYSPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
914TH YR7864★3+8
KELLEY JONESCBRET
704TH YR9386★4+16
JARDIN GILBERTSPORTAL · LSU
614TH YR—64★3+11 2025
BRALAN WOMACKSTRUE FR
521ST YR1298★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.4
51.9
— OFFENSE
45.6
67.7
— DEFENSE
43.3
36.0
SP+ OVERALL
15.1
10.0
FPI
12.3
12.2
ELO
1691
1642
TALENT
808
805
PRODUCTION
87
63
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+14
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.36
0.38
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
OFF EFFICIENCY
75
46
DEF EFFICIENCY
95
32
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
68
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
47
FINISHING DRIVES
68
81
FIELD POSITION
74
52
TURNOVER MARGIN
36
49
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
PASS RATE
43.8%
43.8%
PACE
25.0s
24.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.7%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.2%
34.4%
PLAYS / GAME
72.0
73.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.2%
4.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIZ, ORANGE = MSST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE