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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›ILL @ OSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ILLINOIS
OHIO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|OHIO STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
49FPI
ILLB1GILLINOIS
1-1
64
71
60
21%
13
73
0.0
—
—
HOME
#1AP
1FPI
OSUB1GOHIO STATE
1-1
97
96
99
68%
61
93
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ILL39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
59
TEMPO
13
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE59p
59
TEMPO13p
13
OSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
80
TEMPO
61
EXPLOSIVE82p
82
PROE80p
80
TEMPO61p
61
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OSURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs12.6-0.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.8
OHIO STATE won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERILLINOISOHIO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Luke AltmyerQB · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB82%Gabe JacasDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan RosiekLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlec BryantLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL77%James Thompson Jr.DL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTomiwa DurojaiyePORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAngelo McCullomDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL75%Josh GeskyOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelvin PriestlyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh KreutzOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE56%Tanner ArkinTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHank BeattyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin BowickPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Miles ScottDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTorrie Cox Jr.DB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleb PattersonPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKatin Houser · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAREFILLED
LBRobert Edmonson · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEJacob Eberhart · SIGNEE ★4Cameron Thomas · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLParker Crim · SIGNEE ★3Tony Balanganayi · SIGNEE ★3Jaylen Stewart · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLChamp Smith · SIGNEE ★4Kai Pritchard · SIGNEE ★4Casey Thomann · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEKenyon Alston · SIGNEE ★3Davon Grant · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJames Finley · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHERN ILLINOISJames Finley IV · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHERN ILLINOISNick Hankins Jr. · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.939 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.755 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.229 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545485041 OF 4 GRADED
RB38387810093 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE63636484247 OF 24 GRADED
OL53535540216 OF 21 GRADED
DL494951481710 OF 17 GRADED
LB49495673157 OF 15 GRADED
DB616150642111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%52
RECRUITING CLASS#24 · 5/31 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+25 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OSURYAN DAY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
PACE
3131
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6565
HAVOC
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ILLBRET BIELEMA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESILL OFFENSEOSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
3OF 136
RET
46
FULL DEFENSEOHIO STATE DEFENSE
ILL QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KATIN HOUSERQBPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
574TH YR9485★3-2
CARSON BOYDQBRET
351ST YR—74★3—
MICHAEL CLAYTON IIQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—66★3—
DANE EISENMENGERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7267%72%
LINEBACKERSLB
7868%50%
SECONDARYDB
7143%57%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
53
RET
40
DL
9OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
3OF 138
LB RET
68
FRONT-7OHIO STATE DEFENSE
ILL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2160% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON HENDERSONOLRET
684TH YR8568★3-11
MAIKA MATELAUOLTRUE FR
522ND YR2854★3—
TJ MCMILLENOLRET
523RD YR5162★3—
NATHAN KNAPIKOLRET
502ND YR5245★3—
JAKE RENFROOLPORTAL · WISCONSIN
504TH YR8364★3+43
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAU ATKINSONDERET
694TH YR8695★4+38
CHRISTIAN ALLIEGROLBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
654TH YR8885★3-2
EDDRICK HOUSTONDTRET
593RD YR7099★5-24
KENYATTA JACKSON JR.DERET
564TH YR9298★4+23
JOHN WALKERDTPORTAL · UCF
564TH YR8878★3-32
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
38
RET
100
DL
9OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
3OF 138
LB RET
68
FRONT-7OHIO STATE DEFENSE
ILL RUNNING BACKSn=90% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN LAUGHERYRBRET
534TH YR8576★3+9
JORDAN ANDERSONRBRET
524TH YR3355★3+33
CA'LIL VALENTINERBRET
443RD YR8486★4-25
MURPHY CLEMENTRBRET
372ND YR—9★3—
JAVARI BARNETTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—78★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557267%72%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457868%50%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
24OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
63
RET
84
DB
5OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYOHIO STATE DEFENSE
ILL PASS CATCHERSn=2416% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVIN STOFFELTERET
613RD YR2945★3—
HUDSON CLEMENTWRRET
584TH YR9864★3+31
COLLIN DIXONWRRET
563RD YR9172★3+12
KADEN FEAGINTERET
514TH YR6586★4+17
BRAYDEN TRIMBLEWRRET
481ST YR2083★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRY MOORESPORTAL · DUKE
834TH YR9499★4+35
CAM CALHOUNCBPORTAL · ALABAMA
664TH YR6985★3-15
JAYLEN MCCLAINSRET
643RD YR8687★4+38
SIMEON CALDWELLSTRUE FR
521ST YR992★4—
EARL LITTLE JR.SPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
514TH YR8898★4+51
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.3
50.8
— OFFENSE
48.8
58.4
— DEFENSE
35.9
43.1
SP+ OVERALL
7.2
29.2
FPI
4.5
30.4
ELO
1589
1983
TALENT
704
964
PRODUCTION
80
100
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−28
−1
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.68
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
89
100
DEF EFFICIENCY
11
92
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
9
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
100
FINISHING DRIVES
89
99
FIELD POSITION
30
52
TURNOVER MARGIN
41
76
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
PASS RATE
47.3%
54.1%
PACE
32.7s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.3%
59.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
70.8%
85.0%
PLAYS / GAME
55.0
67.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ILL, ORANGE = OSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE