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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›SDSU @ TOL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SAN DIEGO STATE
TOLEDO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|GLASS BOWLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U49.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
81FPI
SDSUPACSAN DIEGO STATE
1-2
36
18
89
99%
41
45
23.5
+114
+2.5
HOME
—AP
77FPI
TOLMACTOLEDO
2-1
16
34
87
66%
41
0
26.0
-135
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADTOL -2.5
IMPLIED — SDSU23.5
IMPLIED — TOL26.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
23FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
40 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
57 / 57
DISAGREEMENT17 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 17 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
SDSU PACE28.3s
41
TOL PACE28.3s
41
SHARED PACE28.3s
41
PLAY VOLUME127
41
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SDSU19CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
9
PROE
7
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE9p
9
PROE7p
7
TEMPO41p
41
TOL71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
100
PROE
71
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE100p
100
PROE71p
71
TEMPO41p
41
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SDSURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs10.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
SAN DIEGO STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TOLRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.4
TOLEDO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN DIEGO STATETOLEDO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB92%Owen ChamblissPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey WhitePORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMister WilliamsLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Bryce PhillipsCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDwayne McDougle IIIPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric ButlerS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Christian JonesOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBayo KannikeOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSaipale FuimaonoOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL50%Ryan HendersonPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNiles KingEDGE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam BenjaminDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE23%Seth AdamsTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB13%Byron Cardwell Jr.PORTAL · MERCYHURST · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB10%Kyle CrumQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBCameron Cooper · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN COLORADOPARTIAL
DBMike Lindsay · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHO STATECarsten Mamaril · PORTAL ★3 · PORTLAND STATEDareon Edmonds · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLEvan Lawrence · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAJarvis Williams · SIGNEE ★3Brian Borjon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDjibril Rahman · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSGavriel Lightfoot · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAlijah Lash · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJustius Lowe · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONAyo Shotomide-King · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEDerek Stevenson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJosiah Lucas · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBStone Saunders · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN DIEGO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.952 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.794 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.622 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333218342 OF 4 GRADED
RB5757725955 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE434344592317 OF 23 GRADED
OL393936481915 OF 19 GRADED
DL424244541913 OF 19 GRADED
LB54542036106 OF 10 GRADED
DB636339372217 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%13
RECRUITING CLASS#83 · 0/21 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND-11 · 3 CYCLES28
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 26 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TOLMIKE JACOBSFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SDSUSEAN LEWIS3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
PACE
7070
PASS RATE
1212
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HAVOC
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSDSU OFFENSETOL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
21
PERF
33
RET
83
NATIONAL
25OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSETOLEDO DEFENSE
SDSU QUARTERBACKSn=417% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STONE SAUNDERSQBPORTAL · KENTUCKY
441ST YR—45★3—
JAYDEN DENEGALQBRET
444TH YR6417★3-1
DRAIDEN TRUDEAUQBRET
351ST YR—32★3—
BRADY CAMPBELLQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS81% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6441%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5945%0%
SECONDARYDB
500%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
111OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
39
RET
48
DL
23OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
33OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE
SDSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1952% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EVAN LAWRENCEOLPORTAL · INDIANA
522ND YR—78★3—
CAM MAYOLRET
524TH YR—17★3—
KALAN ELLISOLRET
524TH YR—46★3+20 2025
DENNIS JONESOLPORTAL · TEXAS SOUTHERN
504TH YR——UNR—
CHARLTON LUNIEWSKIOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
502ND YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH JOHNSONDEPORTAL · UAB
582ND YR4617★3—
JULIAN FOXLBTRUE FR
523RD YR20—UNR—
ANDREW ZOCKDEPORTAL · MERCER
523RD YR1645★3—
ISAAC ZAYLBRET
512ND YR37—UNR—
WAYNE PEART IIDLRET
492ND YR651★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
57
RET
59
DL
23OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
33OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE
SDSU RUNNING BACKSn=541% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUCKY SUTTONRBRET
674TH YR9478★3+18
JORDIN THOMASRBRET
521ST YR—66★3—
CHRISTIAN WASHINGTONRBRET
494TH YR9464★3-13
JAVION KINNARDRBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
492ND YR2462★3+35
JOSIAH LUCASRBTRUE FR
401ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS57% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556441%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455945%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
44
PERF
43
RET
59
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
0
SECONDARYTOLEDO DEFENSE
SDSU PASS CATCHERSn=2341% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON FORDTERET
553RD YR—45★3-35 2025
JORDAN NAPIERWRRET
543RD YR8369★3+35
BERT EMANUEL JR.WRRET
494TH YR—9★3—
RYAN WOLFERTERET
492ND YR—46★3—
PARKER THREATTWRRET
492ND YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM100% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM JONESCBPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
523RD YR1717★3—
ISRAEL PETITECBTRUE FR
522ND YR17—★2—
MO CONTEHSTRUE FR
524TH YR1617★3—
TYRELL RUSSELLCBRET
491ST YR1457★3—
HYAJAH MILLERCBRET
492ND YR—53★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.0
45.0
— OFFENSE
52.1
45.5
— DEFENSE
29.9
44.4
SP+ OVERALL
-0.5
-4.9
FPI
-3.3
-1.8
ELO
1468
1561
TALENT
609
556
PRODUCTION
53
27
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−17
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
OFF EFFICIENCY
39
69
DEF EFFICIENCY
94
97
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
22
36
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
89
92
FINISHING DRIVES
22
33
FIELD POSITION
12
17
TURNOVER MARGIN
60
62
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
PASS RATE
38.7%
54.4%
PACE
28.3s
28.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
71.1%
47.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.7%
59.0%
PLAYS / GAME
63.7
63.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.7%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SDSU, ORANGE = TOL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE