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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›PUR @ ILL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
PURDUE
ILLINOIS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
70FPI
PURB1GPURDUE
1-1
61
70
56
48%
94
82
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
49FPI
ILLB1GILLINOIS
1-1
64
71
60
21%
13
80
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
PUR59CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
26
PROE
56
TEMPO
94
EXPLOSIVE26p
26
PROE56p
56
TEMPO94p
94
ILL39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
59
TEMPO
13
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE59p
59
TEMPO13p
13
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
PURRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-13.1
PURDUE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPURDUEILLINOIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Nitro TugglePORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Jackson IIIWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ Horton Jr.WR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB72%Devin MockobeeRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi ThomasRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB64%Tahj Ra-ElDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTony GrimesDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles SlusherDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Mani PowellLB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex Sanford Jr.PORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL52%CJ Nunnally IVDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemeco KennedyDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamarrion HarklessDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL47%Bakyne ColyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen St. JohnOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHank PurvisOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB16%Malachi SingletonPORTAL · APP STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEAsaad Waseem · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICAr'Mari Towns · SIGNEE ★3Cooper McCutchan · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJerrick Gibson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASTravis Terrell Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEIzaiah Wright · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJaden Mangham · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANDon Saunders · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHRaderrion Daniels · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJojo Hayden · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISPARTIAL
DLElo Modozie · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIACurt Neal · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISRodney Lora · PORTAL ★3 · UCF3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLBoaz Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAJatavius Shivers · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINABrock Brownfield · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBCorin Berry · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PURDUE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.240 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.328 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.053 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464618252 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545601264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE474767422414 OF 24 GRADED
OL626256262010 OF 20 GRADED
DL595962402311 OF 23 GRADED
LB72724945106 OF 10 GRADED
DB55555419258 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%60
RECRUITING CLASS#55 · 0/21 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND-26 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 29 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PURBARRY ODOM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
PACE
4646
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPUR OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
64
RET
82
NATIONAL
60OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE
PUR QUARTERBACKSn=518% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYAN BROWNEQBRET
533RD YR7964★3-23
EVANS CHUBAQBRET
472ND YR—45★3—
BENNETT MEREDITHQBRET
484TH YR—64★3—
GARYT ODOMQBRET
351ST YR—37★3—
CORIN BERRYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4948%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4973%7%
SECONDARYDB
6164%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
62
RET
26
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
63OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE
PUR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2074% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOEY TANONAOLRET
654TH YR—85★3-3 2025
ETHAN TRENTOLRET
563RD YR—2★2+39 2025
RICO SCHRIEBEROLTRUE FR
521ST YR—55★3—
MASON VICARIOLRET
513RD YR—28★3—
JUDE MCCOSKEYOLRET
514TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS42% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EAN RHEADLPORTAL · EMORY & HENRY
524TH YR3128★3—
CARTER JANKIDLPORTAL · PENNSYLVANIA
524TH YR2817★3—
ISMAEL KANTELBRET
524TH YR45—UNR—
DEMETRIUS JOHNDLRET
512ND YR3174★3—
GRANT BEERMANLBRET
492ND YR3185★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
105OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
45
RET
12
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
63OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE
PUR RUNNING BACKSn=688% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JERRICK GIBSONRBPORTAL · TEXAS
512ND YR6785★3-7
FAME IJEBOIRBPORTAL · MINNESOTA
482ND YR6445★3-13
TRAVIS TERRELL JR.RBPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
463RD YR—64★3-58
ANTONIO HARRISRBRET
433RD YR55—UNR+18
IZAIAH WRIGHTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—79★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554948%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454973%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
82OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
47
RET
42
DB
25OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE
PUR PASS CATCHERSn=2458% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASAAD WASEEMWRPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
573RD YR8164★3+16
LUCA PUCCINELLITERET
522ND YR—64★3—
TRA'MAR HARRISWRRET
502ND YR1478★3—
GEORGE BURHENNTERET
493RD YR5172★3+16
AR'MARI TOWNSTETRUE FR
491ST YR—77★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TANNER HECKELDBRET
763RD YR—53★3-8 2025
MATTHEW BAILEYDBRET
714TH YR10035★3+23
XAVIER SCOTTDBRET
604TH YR10048★3-16
JUICE CLARKEDBRET
584TH YR9054★3-15
MAC RESETICHDBRET
544TH YR7464★3+60
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.1
42.3
— OFFENSE
54.5
48.8
— DEFENSE
41.7
35.9
SP+ OVERALL
-1.2
7.2
FPI
-0.4
4.5
ELO
1326
1589
TALENT
698
704
PRODUCTION
44
80
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+22
−28
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
OFF EFFICIENCY
47
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
6
11
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
14
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
55
81
FINISHING DRIVES
17
89
FIELD POSITION
83
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
15
41
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
PASS RATE
52.3%
47.3%
PACE
23.2s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.8%
59.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.2%
70.8%
PLAYS / GAME
77.5
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PUR, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE