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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›OSU @ IOWA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OHIO STATE
IOWA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KINNICK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#6AP
1FPI
OSUB1GOHIO STATE
2-1
97
96
99
68%
59
94
0.0
—
—
HOME
#18AP
28FPI
IOWAB1GIOWA
3-0
69
48
93
34%
64
54
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
OSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
80
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE82p
82
PROE80p
80
TEMPO59p
59
IOWA40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
16
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE16p
16
TEMPO64p
64
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
OSURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs12.6-0.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.8
OHIO STATE won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIO STATEIOWA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB76%Sonny StylesDRAFTED · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArvell ReeseDRAFTED · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE58%Will KacmarekDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax KlareDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarnell TateDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Caleb DownsDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavison IgbinosunDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLorenzo Styles Jr.DRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Caden CurryDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKayden McDonaldDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTywone Malone Jr.DT · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB47%CJ DonaldsonRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames PeoplesPORTAL · PENN STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL18%Tegra TshabolaOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB4%Lincoln KienholzPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBCincere Johnson · SIGNEE ★5Braxton Rembert · SIGNEE ★4Simeon Caldwell · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEHunter Welcing · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHWESTERNChris Henry Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Jerquaden Guilford · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBTerry Moore · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEEarl Little Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEDominick Kelly · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJames Smith · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAQua Russaw · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAKhary Wilder · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBFavour Akih · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLSam Greer · SIGNEE ★4Max Riley · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.278 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.092 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.759 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7777978463 OF 6 GRADED
RB6565885874 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE686885422316 OF 23 GRADED
OL7575921002010 OF 20 GRADED
DL727293671817 OF 18 GRADED
LB787889681411 OF 14 GRADED
DB717194432311 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE97th97
BLUE-CHIP RATIO68%97
RECRUITING CLASS#4 · 18/30 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND+1 · 3 CYCLES52
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 17 IN / 37 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
44
PASS RATE
1111
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
22
HAVOC
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OSURYAN DAY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
PACE
3131
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6565
HAVOC
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOSU OFFENSEIOWA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
6OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
77
RET
84
NATIONAL
15OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSEIOWA DEFENSE
OSU QUARTERBACKSn=616% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JULIAN SAYINQBRET
913RD YR76100★5+27 2025
TAVIEN ST. CLAIRQBRET
512ND YR17100★5—
LUKE FAHEYQBTRUE FR
451ST YR1282★3—
JUSTYN MARTINQBPORTAL · MARYLAND
504TH YR—64★3+34 2025
KOLTON STOVERQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5474%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
5173%46%
SECONDARYDB
5052%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
75
RET
100
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE
OSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=200% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AUSTIN SIEREVELDOLRET
844TH YR—89★4+7 2025
CARSON HINZMANOLRET
754TH YR—93★4+14 2025
LUKE MONTGOMERYOLRET
704TH YR—96★4+18 2025
PHILLIP DANIELSOLRET
694TH YR—95★4-18 2025
GABE VANSICKLEOLRET
563RD YR—90★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE HAWTHORNEDLRET
584TH YR5992★4-28
DEVAN KENNEDYDLRET
523RD YR1966★3—
EMMANUEL OLAGBAJUDLPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA
524TH YR678★3—
BRICE STEVENSONDLPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
524TH YR617★3—
LUKE GAFFNEYDLRET
514TH YR33—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
17OF 138
TAL
88
PERF
65
RET
58
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE
OSU RUNNING BACKSn=742% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BO JACKSONRBRET
742ND YR8394★4+25
JA'KOBI JACKSONRBPORTAL · FLORIDA
584TH YR7585★3+30
LEGEND BEYRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1695★4—
ISAIAH WESTRBRET
492ND YR5377★3-1
FAVOUR AKIHRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—89★4—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555474%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455173%46%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
15OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
68
RET
42
DB
73OF 138
DB RET
52
SECONDARYIOWA DEFENSE
OSU PASS CATCHERSn=2358% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH SMITHWRRET
953RD YR97100★3+19
DEVIN MCCUINWRPORTAL · UTSA
654TH YR9764★3+27
CHRIS HENRY JR.WRTRUE FR
521ST YR—100★5—
BROCK BOYDWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—79★3—
MASON WILLIAMSTEPORTAL · OHIO
514TH YR7945★3+25
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM48% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH LUTMERDBRET
854TH YR8858★3-9
TYLER BROWNDBTRUE FR
633RD YR—64★3+49 2025
JAYLEN WATSONDBRET
543RD YR—67★3-19 2025
DESHAUN LEEDBRET
524TH YR9863★3-31
RASHAD GODFREY JR.DBRET
513RD YR4169★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.8
54.5
— OFFENSE
58.4
59.6
— DEFENSE
43.1
49.4
SP+ OVERALL
29.2
13.8
FPI
28.1
12.1
ELO
2032
1841
TALENT
964
723
PRODUCTION
100
85
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−1
−11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.68
0.20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
OFF EFFICIENCY
100
67
DEF EFFICIENCY
92
75
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
9
2
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
100
98
FINISHING DRIVES
99
80
FIELD POSITION
52
4
TURNOVER MARGIN
76
75
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
PASS RATE
50.5%
47.0%
PACE
27.0s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.3%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
80.0%
60.7%
PLAYS / GAME
66.7
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.0%
4.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OSU, ORANGE = IOWA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE