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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›TOL @ BALL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TOLEDO
BALL STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SCHEUMANN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
77FPI
TOLMACTOLEDO
2-1
16
34
87
66%
41
1
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
134FPI
BALLMACBALL STATE
1-2
18
1
24
6%
22
12
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TOL71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
100
PROE
71
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE100p
100
PROE71p
71
TEMPO41p
41
BALL34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
9
TEMPO
22
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE9p
9
TEMPO22p
22
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TOLRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.4
TOLEDO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BALLRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.0
BALL STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTOLEDOBALL STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL97%Martez PoynterDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEsean CarterPORTAL · UCONN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi DavisPORTAL · RUTGERS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB94%Tucker GleasonQB · 77% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKalieb OsbornePORTAL · UCONN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB90%Avery SmithCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndre FullerDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmmanuel McNeil-WarrenDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB86%Chip TrayanumRB · 52% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenji ChristianPORTAL · UCONN · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE86%Jacob PetersenTE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJunior Vandeross IIIWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrayvon RudolphWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB81%K'Von ShermanPORTAL · UCONN · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris D'AppoloniaPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah PetersLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL67%Anthony BoswellPORTAL · HOUSTON · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan SpothOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole RhettOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLAndrew Zock · PORTAL ★3 · MERCEREzra Odinjor · PORTAL ★3 · UABTyrell O'Neal · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBKhamoni Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · LENOIR-RHYNEREFILLED
DBArmorion Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATELaDavion Osborn · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN COLORADOKJ Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · MERCER2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCorey Smith · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATECJ Miller · PORTAL ★3 · MERCERREFILLED
WR/TERico Bond · PORTAL ★3 · LINDENWOODJake Newell · PORTAL ★3 · AKRONTucker Kelleher · PORTAL ★3 · BYU2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKari Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEBrian Stovall Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Nathan Gersh · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLAhmad Carwise · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBNick Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · RHODE ISLANDJake Palucki · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TOLEDO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
11.13 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
13.38 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
9.75 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB70702210041 OF 4 GRADED
RB4343345283 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE46464357178 OF 17 GRADED
OL51514353176 OF 17 GRADED
DL64643041228 OF 22 GRADED
LB59592845114 OF 11 GRADED
DB5050330197 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE16th16
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%12
RECRUITING CLASS#121 · 0/15 BC10
CLASS RANK TREND-55 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BALLMIKE UREMOVICH2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
66
PACE
44
PASS RATE
1818
EXPLOSIVENESS
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
99
HAVOC
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TOLMIKE JACOBSFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTOL OFFENSEBALL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTOLEDO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
17OF 138
TAL
22
PERF
70
RET
100
NATIONAL
109OF 136
RET
26
FULL DEFENSEBALL STATE DEFENSE
TOL QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHN ALAN RICHTERQBRET
493RD YR5222★3+5
KHAMONI ROBINSONQBTRUE FR
373RD YR—64★3—
WALTER MOSESQBRET
351ST YR—39★3—
JAKE DEHAANQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS66% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4245%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
4228%0%
SECONDARYDB
3931%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTOLEDO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
77OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
51
RET
53
DL
101OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
91OF 138
LB RET
28
FRONT-7BALL STATE DEFENSE
TOL OFFENSIVE LINEn=1747% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRANT ZIMMERLYOLRET
602ND YR—22★3+29 2024
AHMAD CARWISEOLTRUE FR
492ND YR—45★3—
DYLAN SENDAOLPORTAL · AUBURN
493RD YR—82★3—
MATT HOFEROLRET
492ND YR—44★3—
JONATHAN HARDEROLRET
494TH YR—9★3-4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS62% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENDRICK GILBERTDTPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
523RD YR3745★3—
KEILAN SMITHDTPORTAL · CINCINNATI
523RD YR2028★3—
LUCAS SZYMBORSKILBRET
521ST YR1440★3—
KALEB STEWARTLBTRUE FR
522ND YR1137★3—
MAVERICK GRACIODEPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
503RD YR3728★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTOLEDO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
112OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
43
RET
52
DL
101OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
91OF 138
LB RET
28
FRONT-7BALL STATE DEFENSE
TOL RUNNING BACKSn=848% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DANE NAUMANRBRET
502ND YR——UNR-52 2025
COREY SMITHRBPORTAL · PENN STATE
492ND YR—45★3+17 2025
CJ MILLERRBPORTAL · MERCER
463RD YR2045★3—
AUTAVIUS ISONRBPORTAL · MERCER
433RD YR128★3—
CONNOR WALENDZAKRBRET
424TH YR8226★3-51
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554245%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454228%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETOLEDO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
84OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
46
RET
57
DB
128OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYBALL STATE DEFENSE
TOL PASS CATCHERSn=1743% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY SIMPSONWRPORTAL · MICHIGAN
574TH YR—17★3+25 2025
ADJATAY DABBSWRPORTAL · MERCER
523RD YR—45★3—
DARYL BARNETT JR.WRRET
522ND YR842★3—
TASHI BRACEFULWRRET
522ND YR—72★3—
BRYSON HAMMERWRRET
513RD YR31—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY PINNACEDBTRUE FR
524TH YR2064★3—
KAMRON CHAMBLEDBRET
521ST YR6—UNR—
STONE PERKINSDBTRUE FR
521ST YR258★3—
CHRIS JACKSONDBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
524TH YR3578★3—
QUENTAVIUS SCANDRETTDBTRUE FR
484TH YR9928★3+35
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.0
45.4
— OFFENSE
45.5
59.8
— DEFENSE
44.4
31.0
SP+ OVERALL
-4.9
-21.3
FPI
-1.8
-21.6
ELO
1561
1081
TALENT
556
564
PRODUCTION
27
4
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+9
−2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.02
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
OFF EFFICIENCY
69
0
DEF EFFICIENCY
97
17
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
79
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
92
45
FINISHING DRIVES
33
3
FIELD POSITION
17
78
TURNOVER MARGIN
62
30
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
PASS RATE
54.4%
53.0%
PACE
28.3s
29.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.7%
50.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
59.0%
58.7%
PLAYS / GAME
63.7
60.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.1%
7.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TOL, ORANGE = BALL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE