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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›WMU @ BUF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WESTERN MICHIGAN
BUFFALO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|UB STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
65FPI
WMUMACWESTERN MICHIGAN
1-1
22
9
46
100%
32
5
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
122FPI
BUFMACBUFFALO
1-1
13
6
32
-1%
87
2
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WMU28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
46
PROE
4
TEMPO
32
EXPLOSIVE46p
46
PROE4p
4
TEMPO32p
32
BUF79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
79
PROE
72
TEMPO
87
EXPLOSIVE79p
79
PROE72p
72
TEMPO87p
87
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WMURECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.4
WESTERN MICHIGAN won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
BUFFALO won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWESTERN MICHIGANBUFFALO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL87%Nadame TuckerDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcel TylerDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKershawn FisherDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB79%Sefa Saipaia Jr.LB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames CamdenLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE73%Blake BosmaTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael BresciaTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMareyohn HrabowskiTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL48%Raheem Anderson IIOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam VandervestOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach VaughanOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB46%Tate HallockS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron WoffordS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn PetersCB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB31%Devin MilesRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB14%Brady JonesPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLAustin Alexander · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAMax Baker · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Westrich · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDeJuan Echoles Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATEBreck Mallory · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEHarper Hughes · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Rocheleau · SIGNEE ★3Angelo Chapman · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLGavin Beachner · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTahj Owens · PORTAL ★3 · PRINCETONWillard Ferrell · PORTAL ★3 · PRESBYTERIANKouri Crump · PORTAL ★3 · VMI3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
QBTrey Petty · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISJaxson Dosh · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WESTERN MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.849 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.772 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.233 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB43436410041 OF 4 GRADED
RB49496410073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE393921351911 OF 19 GRADED
OL43435680185 OF 18 GRADED
DL535321112010 OF 20 GRADED
LB55552321105 OF 10 GRADED
DB444421811910 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE22nd22
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%32
RECRUITING CLASS#112 · 0/18 BC17
CLASS RANK TREND-41 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 14 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BUFPETE LEMBO3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
PACE
7171
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HAVOC
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WMULANCE TAYLOR4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1010
PACE
5454
PASS RATE
1010
EXPLOSIVENESS
1414
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8686
HAVOC
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWMU OFFENSEBUF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWESTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
43
RET
100
NATIONAL
99OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSEBUFFALO DEFENSE
WMU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BROC LOWRYQBRET
563RD YR6764★3+1
TREY PETTYQBPORTAL · ILLINOIS
372ND YR—17★3—
MASON REYNOLDSQBRET
352ND YR—29★3—
JAXSON DOSHQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4967%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4750%0%
SECONDARYDB
5096%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWESTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
43
RET
80
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE
WMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1820% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HUNTER WHITENACKOLRET
764TH YR—60★3+16 2025
GAVIN DABOOLRET
552ND YR—35★3+12 2025
LIAM VAUGHANOLRET
521ST YR—49★3—
SPENCER BECKEMANOLRET
491ST YR—45★3—
BEN ROEBUCKOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN
482ND YR—82★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
REX STINCHCOMBDLRET
522ND YR—34★3—
STANTAVIOUS SMITHDTPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M
524TH YR1628★3—
JORDAN OWENSLBRET
524TH YR——UNR—
CHRISTOPHER CLIMESDLRET
522ND YR1747★3—
SEDRICK VESSAHEDGEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA (PA)
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWESTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
85OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
49
RET
100
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE
WMU RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN BUCKLEYRBRET
554TH YR100—UNR+12
COLE CABANARBRET
483RD YR2764★3-61
AJ GREEN JR.RBTRUE FR
474TH YR—93★4-18 2025
OFA MATAELERBRET
444TH YR52—UNR-35
DONOVAN TRIPLETTRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554967%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454750%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWESTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
120OF 138
TAL
21
PERF
39
RET
35
DB
80OF 138
DB RET
96
SECONDARYBUFFALO DEFENSE
WMU PASS CATCHERSn=1965% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADAM PARKSTEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
653RD YR331★2—
BAYLIN BROOKSWRRET
523RD YR869★3+15
NATE LEVICKITETRUE FR
494TH YR——UNR—
RYAN BROTHERTONTERET
492ND YR—28★3—
KEIVIN BOONE-NELSON IIWRRET
494TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM4% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MILES GREERSRET
684TH YR78—UNR+34
KEONTEZ BRADLEYCBRET
594TH YR7317★3-1
RONNELL DAVISSRET
513RD YR3545★3—
JOHN KEOUGHSRET
483RD YR3726★3—
OLIVER BRIDGESCBRET
464TH YR—17★3-29 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.1
55.0
— OFFENSE
53.5
54.2
— DEFENSE
42.7
55.9
SP+ OVERALL
-2.2
-13.9
FPI
0.7
-14.5
ELO
1534
1341
TALENT
572
549
PRODUCTION
35
19
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
OFF EFFICIENCY
50
22
DEF EFFICIENCY
83
72
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
0
17
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
58
56
FINISHING DRIVES
8
33
FIELD POSITION
9
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
84
16
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
PASS RATE
40.2%
62.1%
PACE
29.5s
24.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.9%
46.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
48.7%
75.9%
PLAYS / GAME
61.0
72.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WMU, ORANGE = BUF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE