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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›ILL @ MSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ILLINOIS
MICHIGAN STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
49FPI
ILLB1GILLINOIS
1-1
64
71
60
21%
13
87
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
53FPI
MSUB1GMICHIGAN STATE
2-0
56
64
49
21%
92
75
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ILL39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
59
TEMPO
13
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE59p
59
TEMPO13p
13
MSU63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
68
TEMPO
92
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE68p
68
TEMPO92p
92
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERILLINOISMICHIGAN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Luke AltmyerQB · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB82%Gabe JacasDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan RosiekLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlec BryantLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL77%James Thompson Jr.DL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTomiwa DurojaiyePORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAngelo McCullomDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL75%Josh GeskyOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelvin PriestlyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh KreutzOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE56%Tanner ArkinTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHank BeattyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin BowickPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Miles ScottDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTorrie Cox Jr.DB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleb PattersonPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKatin Houser · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAREFILLED
LBRobert Edmonson · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEJacob Eberhart · SIGNEE ★4Cameron Thomas · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLParker Crim · SIGNEE ★3Tony Balanganayi · SIGNEE ★3Jaylen Stewart · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLChamp Smith · SIGNEE ★4Kai Pritchard · SIGNEE ★4Casey Thomann · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEKenyon Alston · SIGNEE ★3Davon Grant · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJames Finley · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHERN ILLINOISJames Finley IV · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHERN ILLINOISNick Hankins Jr. · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.939 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.755 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.229 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545485041 OF 4 GRADED
RB38387810093 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE63636484247 OF 24 GRADED
OL53535540216 OF 21 GRADED
DL494951481710 OF 17 GRADED
LB49495673157 OF 15 GRADED
DB616150642111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%52
RECRUITING CLASS#24 · 5/31 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+25 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUPAT FITZGERALDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
4848
EXPLOSIVENESS
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ILLBRET BIELEMA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESILL OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
72OF 136
RET
3
FULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
ILL QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KATIN HOUSERQBPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
574TH YR9485★3-2
CARSON BOYDQBRET
351ST YR—74★3—
MICHAEL CLAYTON IIQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—66★3—
DANE EISENMENGERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
4475%22%
SECONDARYDB
6020%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
53
RET
40
DL
76OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
83OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
ILL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2160% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON HENDERSONOLRET
684TH YR8568★3-11
MAIKA MATELAUOLTRUE FR
522ND YR2854★3—
TJ MCMILLENOLRET
523RD YR5162★3—
NATHAN KNAPIKOLRET
502ND YR5245★3—
JAKE RENFROOLPORTAL · WISCONSIN
504TH YR8364★3+43
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS44% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DION CRAWFORDLBPORTAL · BUFFALO
644TH YR—45★3-8 2025
JORDAN HALLLBRET
624TH YR9794★4-1
KENNY SOARES JR.EDGEPORTAL · NC STATE
614TH YR9564★3+49
BEN ROBERTSDLRET
544TH YR6528★3-36
ANELU LAFAELEEDGERET
532ND YR3885★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
38
RET
100
DL
76OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
83OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
ILL RUNNING BACKSn=90% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN LAUGHERYRBRET
534TH YR8576★3+9
JORDAN ANDERSONRBRET
524TH YR3355★3+33
CA'LIL VALENTINERBRET
443RD YR8486★4-25
MURPHY CLEMENTRBRET
372ND YR—9★3—
JAVARI BARNETTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—78★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454475%22%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
24OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
63
RET
84
DB
27OF 138
DB RET
20
SECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
ILL PASS CATCHERSn=2416% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVIN STOFFELTERET
613RD YR2945★3—
HUDSON CLEMENTWRRET
584TH YR9864★3+31
COLLIN DIXONWRRET
563RD YR9172★3+12
KADEN FEAGINTERET
514TH YR6586★4+17
BRAYDEN TRIMBLEWRRET
481ST YR2083★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM80% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHARLES BRANTLEYCBPORTAL · MIAMI
664TH YR9678★3-15
KHALIL MAJEEDSRET
534TH YR56—UNR+13
DEVIN VAUGHTSPORTAL · MAINE
523RD YR1628★3—
TYRAN CHAPPELLCBPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
522ND YR928★3—
TRE BELLCBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
504TH YR7978★3-4
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.3
46.4
— OFFENSE
48.8
47.1
— DEFENSE
35.9
45.6
SP+ OVERALL
7.2
3.5
FPI
4.5
3.5
ELO
1589
1528
TALENT
704
685
PRODUCTION
80
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−28
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
89
47
DEF EFFICIENCY
11
19
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
80
FINISHING DRIVES
89
35
FIELD POSITION
30
87
TURNOVER MARGIN
41
51
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
PASS RATE
47.3%
42.1%
PACE
32.7s
23.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.3%
66.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
70.8%
67.6%
PLAYS / GAME
55.0
76.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ILL, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE