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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›M-OH @ MASS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIAMI (OH)
MASSACHUSETTS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP31|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
104FPI
M-OHMACMIAMI (OH)
1-2
38
10
31
14%
4
5
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
116FPI
MASSMACMASSACHUSETTS
3-0
7
0
1
-57%
2
7
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
M-OH41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
90
PROE
30
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE90p
90
PROE30p
30
TEMPO4p
4
MASS37CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
61
TEMPO
2
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE61p
61
TEMPO2p
2
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
7-6ACTUALvs7.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.1
MIAMI (OH) won 7 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MASSRECORD MATCHES
0-12ACTUALvs0.6-11.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-27.5
MASSACHUSETTS won 0 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 0.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMI (OH)MASSACHUSETTS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB80%Jordan BrunsonRB · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny TracyRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB76%Dequan FinnQB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHenry HessonQB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE69%Cole WeaverPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKam PerryPORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian ShaneTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB65%Jackson KuwatchDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam TrickPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorban HondruLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Eli BlakeyDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSilas WaltersDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoy BeasleyPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL30%Drew TerrillOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin UkeOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin RohrsOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL26%Nasir WashingtonDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh LukusaPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBCade Yacamelli · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINRodney Nelson · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTHTomarion Steward · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBDavid McComb · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASDrew Bellisari · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDamarion Witten · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEDevin Hyatt · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAWilliam Pressley · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBRyan Stolarski · SIGNEE ★3Brody Sink · SIGNEE ★3Isaiah Harris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMason Ellens · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATETommy Thies · SIGNEE ★3Easton Jointer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDevontae Armstrong · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEEvan Malcore · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOISDominik Kosznicki · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMikah Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATILondon Vickroy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI (OH)
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.881 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.181 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.668 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB404045052 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545424264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE414145372711 OF 27 GRADED
OL363633611810 OF 18 GRADED
DL434333722211 OF 22 GRADED
LB57573370159 OF 15 GRADED
DB444464502213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE38th38
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%34
RECRUITING CLASS#105 · 0/19 BC22
CLASS RANK TREND-23 · 3 CYCLES4
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MASSJOE HARASYMIAK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7171
PACE
4444
PASS RATE
9191
EXPLOSIVENESS
1414
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5050
HAVOC
00
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
PACE
00
PASS RATE
3131
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESM-OH OFFENSEMASS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSE
NATIONAL
110OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
40
RET
0
NATIONAL
134OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEMASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE
M-OH QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVID MCCOMBQBPORTAL · KANSAS
491ST YR3245★3-11
CALEB HEAVNERQBTRUE FR
364TH YR10—UNR—
THOMAS GOTKOWSKIQBRET
472ND YR—34★3-22 2025
DREW BELLISARIQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—64★3—
LUKE BERRYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
186%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
1869%0%
SECONDARYDB
3161%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI (OH) OFFENSE
NATIONAL
118OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
36
RET
61
DL
137OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
138OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7MASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE
M-OH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1839% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON LAWHORN MOOREOLRET
524TH YR—36★3—
MITCHELL BUTLEROLRET
503RD YR—5★3—
BRIAN BEIDATSCHOLTRUE FR
494TH YR——UNR—
KRIS MANUOLRET
482ND YR—31★3+16 2025
ANDREW LOWRYOLRET
483RD YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS68% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER MARTINLBRET
544TH YR9328★3-5
ROMANDO JOHNSONDLRET
522ND YR3028★3—
AUBREY MELVINDLPORTAL · UCONN
522ND YR2445★3—
HOLLIS DIRSTINEDLTRUE FR
524TH YR21—UNR—
ANDREW DEPAEPEDLPORTAL · INDIANA
513RD YR3895★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
42
PERF
45
RET
42
DL
137OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
138OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7MASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE
M-OH RUNNING BACKSn=658% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
D'SHAWNTAE JONESRBRET
622ND YR5445★3+18
CADE YACAMELLIRBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
494TH YR6645★3+4
RODNEY NELSONRBPORTAL · MONMOUTH
483RD YR1428★3—
LAZARO ROGERSRBTRUE FR
482ND YR4550★3+6
CHANCELLOR SPARKSRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—45★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS65% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55186%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.451869%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI (OH) OFFENSE
NATIONAL
111OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
41
RET
37
DB
135OF 138
DB RET
61
SECONDARYMASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE
M-OH PASS CATCHERSn=2763% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTIAN ROSSTETRUE FR
613RD YR6054★3-20
DAMARION WITTENWRPORTAL · OHIO STATE
523RD YR—64★3—
SCOOP SMITHWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—51★3—
BRENDAN LOFTUSTERET
501ST YR—36★3—
MALEEK HUGGINSWRTRUE FR
484TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DD SNYDERSRET
634TH YR7817★3-2
ZERAUN DANIELSRET
584TH YR76—UNR+6
ISAIAH REEDCBPORTAL · UCF
524TH YR372★3—
DAVID CHIAVEGATOSTRUE FR
521ST YR2031★3—
MICHAEL ROBINSONDBTRUE FR
524TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.3
46.5
— OFFENSE
48.4
57.1
— DEFENSE
30.3
35.9
SP+ OVERALL
-6.6
-25.2
FPI
-8.4
-11.4
ELO
1263
1049
TALENT
621
526
PRODUCTION
39
0
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−21
+24
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.08
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
OFF EFFICIENCY
20
2
DEF EFFICIENCY
68
4
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
32
21
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
92
FINISHING DRIVES
45
0
FIELD POSITION
14
96
TURNOVER MARGIN
52
29
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
PASS RATE
50.9%
39.6%
PACE
33.1s
34.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
58.2%
68.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.8%
58.7%
PLAYS / GAME
54.3
53.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
7.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = M-OH, ORANGE = MASS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE