SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›MSST @ LSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MISSISSIPPI STATE
LSU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|TIGER STADIUM (LA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
27FPI
MSSTSECMISSISSIPPI STATE
2-0
86
79
63
34%
89
96
0.0
—
—
HOME
#8AP
9FPI
LSUSECLSU
2-0
95
44
93
21%
99
91
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MSST58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
62
PROE
24
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE62p
62
PROE24p
24
TEMPO89p
89
LSU85CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
90
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE90p
90
TEMPO99p
99
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
LSU won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSISSIPPI STATELSU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB78%Blake ShapenQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB68%Brylan LanierS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahron ManningS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAgo BrumfieldCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB59%Nic MitchellLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranden JenningsLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalick SyllaLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL59%Jacoby JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayvin JamesOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlbert Reese IVOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Seydou TraoreDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenen ThompsonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan MosleyWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Davon BoothRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Kedrick Bingley-JonesPORTAL · ALABAMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRed HibblerDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeonte AndersonDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrodie McWhorter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBralan Womack · SIGNEE ★4Terrell Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Camron Brown · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLTyler Miller · PORTAL ★3 · LSUDalton Toothman · SIGNEE ★3Leon Noil Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEMarquis Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIZayion Cotton · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Cration · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCooper Crosby · SIGNEE ★3Jaeden Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDealyn Evans · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MAmaree Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJayson Jenkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSISSIPPI STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.950 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.250 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.555 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252958052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757807865 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626262522111 OF 21 GRADED
OL585865252213 OF 22 GRADED
DL414177551912 OF 19 GRADED
LB363682100117 OF 11 GRADED
DB585864272413 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE86th86
BLUE-CHIP RATIO38%87
RECRUITING CLASS#23 · 4/28 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 27 IN / 40 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LSULANE KIFFINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
PACE
9797
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSSTJEFF LEBBY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
6161
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
33
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSST OFFENSELSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
95
PERF
52
RET
80
NATIONAL
11OF 136
RET
46
FULL DEFENSELSU DEFENSE
MSST QUARTERBACKSn=520% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAMARIO TAYLORQBRET
682ND YR5395★4+21
PARKER PUCKETTQBRET
501ST YR17—UNR—
AJ SWANNQBPORTAL · APP STATE
454TH YR—64★3-19 2025
JADEN RASHADAQBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
403RD YR—45★3-41 2025
BRODIE MCWHORTERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6525%79%
LINEBACKERSLB
6671%82%
SECONDARYDB
7274%45%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
58
RET
25
DL
19OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
16OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7LSU DEFENSE
MSST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2275% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CANON BOONEOLRET
544TH YR—61★3+36 2025
JAKHEEM SHUMPERT-PERKINSOLRET
523RD YR——UNR—
SAQUON MILESOLRET
523RD YR——UNR—
TJ LOCKHARTOLRET
522ND YR—72★3—
BLAKE STEENOLRET
503RD YR—78★3-27 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WHIT WEEKSLBRET
704TH YR9694★4+32
STEPHIYLAN GREENDTPORTAL · CLEMSON
553RD YR7795★4-30
DYLAN CARPENTERDERET
553RD YR5080★3—
TJ DOTTERYLBPORTAL · OLE MISS
544TH YR9895★4+27
DAVHON KEYSLBRET
543RD YR8686★4-18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
57
RET
78
DL
19OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
16OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7LSU DEFENSE
MSST RUNNING BACKSn=622% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FLUFF BOTHWELLRBRET
573RD YR9295★4+26
XAVIER GAYTENRBRET
543RD YR4684★4+34
J.J. HILLRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1874★3—
KOLIN WILSONRBRET
511ST YR2259★3+35
COOPER CROSBYRBTRUE FR
471ST YR1179★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556525%79%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456671%82%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
62
RET
52
DB
4OF 138
DB RET
74
SECONDARYLSU DEFENSE
MSST PASS CATCHERSn=2148% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY EVANS IIIWRRET
584TH YR9364★3+3
MATT MAYFIELDWRTRUE FR
523RD YR—74★3—
SANFRISCO MAGEEWRRET
512ND YR3374★3—
RILEY WILLIAMSTEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
503RD YR5545★3+6
SAM WESTTERET
503RD YR3828★3+9
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DASHAWN SPEARSSRET
703RD YR7096★4+47
DJ PICKETTCBRET
692ND YR73100★5+17
PJ WOODLANDCBRET
553RD YR8583★3-16
TY BENEFIELDSPORTAL · BOISE STATE
534TH YR10099★4+5
JHASE THOMASSRET
501ST YR287★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.9
60.6
— OFFENSE
67.7
64.9
— DEFENSE
36.0
56.2
SP+ OVERALL
10.0
24.1
FPI
12.2
22.6
ELO
1642
1794
TALENT
805
932
PRODUCTION
63
93
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+14
+3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.38
0.70
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
46
25
DEF EFFICIENCY
32
75
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
45
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
47
50
FINISHING DRIVES
81
13
FIELD POSITION
52
38
TURNOVER MARGIN
49
92
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
PASS RATE
43.8%
44.0%
PACE
24.7s
20.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.5%
61.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
34.4%
58.3%
PLAYS / GAME
73.0
87.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.8%
4.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSST, ORANGE = LSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE