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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›TTU @ CIN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS TECH
CINCINNATI
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|NIPPERT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP35|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#13AP
16FPI
TTUB12TEXAS TECH
2-0
80
60
95
53%
87
63
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
34FPI
CINB12CINCINNATI
2-0
45
98
52
8%
73
74
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TTU65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
25
PROE
83
TEMPO
87
EXPLOSIVE25p
25
PROE83p
83
TEMPO87p
87
CIN66CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
52
PROE
73
TEMPO
73
EXPLOSIVE52p
52
PROE73p
73
TEMPO73p
73
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TTURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.5
TEXAS TECH won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CINRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
CINCINNATI won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS TECHCINCINNATI2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB76%Behren MortonDRAFTED · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitch GriffisPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB59%Jacob RodriguezDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid BaileyDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRomello HeightDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL58%Lee HunterDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE'Maurion BanksDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSkyler Gill-HowardDRAFTED · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE58%Reggie VirgilDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb DouglasDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohncarlos Miller IITE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB37%Cole WisniewskiDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDontae BalfourDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.J. McCartyDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL37%Davion CarterOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill JadosOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrendan Sorsby · PORTAL ★5 · CINCINNATIStephen Cannon · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBCorey Platt Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONAustin Romaine · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATECord Nolan · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLMateen Ibirogba · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTAdam Trick · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMI (OH)LaDamion Guyton · SIGNEE ★53 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMalcolm Simmons · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNChase Campbell · SIGNEE ★4Matt Ludwig · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBDavin Martin · PORTAL ★3 · UTSAS'Vioarean Martin · SIGNEE ★4Donovan Webb · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLJordan Church · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLEFelix Ojo · SIGNEE ★4Bryce Gilmore · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.773 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.964 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.570 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5151899762 OF 6 GRADED
RB6565848173 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE63636252199 OF 19 GRADED
OL66668580215 OF 21 GRADED
DL7777744795 OF 9 GRADED
LB75756757219 OF 21 GRADED
DB68687092229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%77
RECRUITING CLASS#18 · 9/22 BC87
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+5 · 21 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
PACE
5151
PASS RATE
3737
EXPLOSIVENESS
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TTUJOEY MCGUIRE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
PACE
9999
PASS RATE
7373
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTTU OFFENSECIN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
85OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
51
RET
97
NATIONAL
62OF 136
RET
19
FULL DEFENSECINCINNATI DEFENSE
TTU QUARTERBACKSn=63% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TOMMY CASTELLANOSQBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
654TH YR——★3+23 2025
WILL HAMMONDQBRET
543RD YR5692★4+11
KIRK FRANCISQBPORTAL · TULSA
474TH YR7817★3-25
LLOYD JONES IIIQBRET
512ND YR—84★4—
STEPHEN CANNONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS76% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4042%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
4661%0%
SECONDARYDB
553%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
66
RET
80
DL
108OF 138
DL RET
42
LB
78OF 138
LB RET
61
FRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE
TTU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2120% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHERIDAN WILSONOLRET
844TH YR—56★3+47 2025
HOWARD SAMPSONOLRET
844TH YR—89★3-12 2025
CONNOR CARTYOLRET
522ND YR—84★4—
D'ANTHIS UPSHAW JR.OLRET
503RD YR——UNR—
JACOB PONTONOLRET
503RD YR—87★4-24 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTWAN PEEK JR.LBRET
834TH YR87—UNR+58
FILIP MACIOROWSKILBPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
584TH YR7945★3+19
JONATHAN THOMPSONLBRET
564TH YR9555★3-1
CHIDERA OTUTUDLPORTAL · UTSA
553RD YR7064★3-28
DREW LOGANEDGERET
504TH YR3327★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
17OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
65
RET
81
DL
108OF 138
DL RET
42
LB
78OF 138
LB RET
61
FRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE
TTU RUNNING BACKSn=719% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
J'KOBY WILLIAMSRBRET
863RD YR8483★3+34
CAMERON DICKEYRBRET
623RD YR9181★3+9
QUINTEN JOYNERRBRET
494TH YR5892★4+32
ASHTON ROWDENRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—86★4—
MICHAEL HENDERSON IIIRBRET
382ND YR—63★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554042%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454661%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
63
RET
52
DB
50OF 138
DB RET
3
SECONDARYCINCINNATI DEFENSE
TTU PASS CATCHERSn=1948% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM SIMMONSWRPORTAL · AUBURN
623RD YR8595★4+18
TERRANCE CARTER JR.TERET
624TH YR9642★3+48
JETT CARPENTERTEPORTAL · NEVADA
584TH YR6645★3+27
DONTE LEE JR.WRPORTAL · LIBERTY
574TH YR—64★3+31 2025
KENNY JOHNSONWRPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
524TH YR9964★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM97% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KK MEIERCBPORTAL · UTSA
684TH YR9145★3-22
MJ CANNONSPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
574TH YR8378★3+22
JASPER BEELERSPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
524TH YR8464★3+40
D'ANGELO HUTCHINSONSPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
514TH YR——★3+1 2025
JACOB FINLEYCBPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
484TH YR9964★3-16
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
59.2
54.7
— OFFENSE
69.8
60.6
— DEFENSE
48.6
48.8
SP+ OVERALL
19.1
7.6
FPI
16.1
8.6
ELO
1845
1516
TALENT
768
634
PRODUCTION
95
57
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−19
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.27
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
OFF EFFICIENCY
64
85
DEF EFFICIENCY
98
26
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
77
77
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
85
88
FINISHING DRIVES
52
94
FIELD POSITION
0
48
TURNOVER MARGIN
99
13
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
PASS RATE
45.5%
33.8%
PACE
24.8s
25.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.0%
67.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.2%
37.8%
PLAYS / GAME
72.5
69.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.7%
7.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TTU, ORANGE = CIN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE