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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›ORE @ ILL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OREGON
ILLINOIS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP35|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#6AP
13FPI
OREB1GOREGON
1-1
99
90
94
75%
35
82
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
49FPI
ILLB1GILLINOIS
1-1
64
71
60
21%
13
79
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ORE65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
62
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE62p
62
TEMPO35p
35
ILL39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
59
TEMPO
13
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE59p
59
TEMPO13p
13
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGONILLINOIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE59%Kenyon SadiqDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik BensonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGary Bryant Jr.WR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Noah WhittingtonRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden LimarPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJay HarrisPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL56%Emmanuel PregnonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex HarkeyDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WorldOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Dillon ThienemanDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJadon CanadyDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTheran JohnsonDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Blake PurchasePORTAL · OLE MISS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrance GreenPORTAL · ALABAMA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshton PorterPORTAL · HOUSTON · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB24%Bryce BoettcherDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Luke MogaPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEIverson Hooks · PORTAL ★3 · UABJalen Lott · SIGNEE ★5Kendre Harrison · SIGNEE ★51 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBSimeon Price · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOTradarian Ball · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Smith · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLImmanuel Iheanacho · SIGNEE ★5Tommy Tofi · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBKoi Perich · PORTAL ★4 · MINNESOTAAaron Scott Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEJett Washington · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLD'Antre Robinson · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH CAROLINAAnthony Jones Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Tony Cumberland · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBraylon Hodge · SIGNEE ★4Tristan Phillips · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBDylan Raiola · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKABryson Beaver · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.294 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.184 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.591 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB727210010061 OF 6 GRADED
RB68689410082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE77779774226 OF 22 GRADED
OL77778585208 OF 20 GRADED
DL5656939695 OF 9 GRADED
LB545490100197 OF 19 GRADED
DB68689664228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO62%95
RECRUITING CLASS#3 · 18/25 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 13 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORE OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
72
RET
100
NATIONAL
60OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE
ORE QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DANTE MOOREQBRET
683RD YR87100★4+27
BROCK THOMASQBRET
503RD YR—34★3—
DYLAN RAIOLAQBPORTAL · NEBRASKA
493RD YR—99★4+24 2025
AKILI SMITH JR.QBRET
471ST YR—93★4—
RYDER HAYESQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4948%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4973%7%
SECONDARYDB
6164%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
77
RET
85
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
63OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE
ORE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2015% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SOLOMON KROEKEROLTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
IAPANI LALOULUOLRET
874TH YR—87★4+40 2025
DAVE IULIOLRET
784TH YR—93★4+43 2025
GERNORRIS WILSONOLRET
533RD YR—86★4—
ZIYARE ADDISONOLRET
521ST YR—95★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS42% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EAN RHEADLPORTAL · EMORY & HENRY
524TH YR3128★3—
CARTER JANKIDLPORTAL · PENNSYLVANIA
524TH YR2817★3—
ISMAEL KANTELBRET
524TH YR45—UNR—
DEMETRIUS JOHNDLRET
512ND YR3174★3—
GRANT BEERMANLBRET
492ND YR3185★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
68
RET
100
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
63OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE
ORE RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDON DAVISONRBRET
882ND YR7193★4+35
DIERRE HILL JR.RBRET
682ND YR5994★4+37
DA'JAUN RIGGSRBRET
502ND YR—77★3+25 2025
SIMEON PRICERBPORTAL · COLORADO
494TH YR—85★3-18 2025
TRADARIAN BALLRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554948%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454973%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
2OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
77
RET
74
DB
25OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE
ORE PASS CATCHERSn=2226% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH MCCLELLANWRRET
632ND YR7197★4+24
JAMARI JOHNSONTERET
583RD YR7692★4+46
DAKORIEN MOOREWRRET
582ND YR66100★5+10
EVAN STEWARTWRRET
544TH YR100100★5-7
ANDREW OLESHTEPORTAL · PENN STATE
411ST YR—78★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TANNER HECKELDBRET
763RD YR—53★3-8 2025
MATTHEW BAILEYDBRET
714TH YR10035★3+23
XAVIER SCOTTDBRET
604TH YR10048★3-16
JUICE CLARKEDBRET
584TH YR9054★3-15
MAC RESETICHDBRET
544TH YR7464★3+60
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.3
42.3
— OFFENSE
62.9
48.8
— DEFENSE
51.6
35.9
SP+ OVERALL
22.9
7.2
FPI
17.1
4.5
ELO
1811
1589
TALENT
984
704
PRODUCTION
99
80
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−6
−28
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.62
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
OFF EFFICIENCY
89
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
89
11
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
14
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
58
81
FINISHING DRIVES
90
89
FIELD POSITION
18
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
88
41
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
PASS RATE
59.7%
47.3%
PACE
29.0s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
49.4%
59.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
76.7%
70.8%
PLAYS / GAME
62.0
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORE, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE