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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›MSST @ TEX›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MISSISSIPPI STATE
TEXAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
22FPI
MSSTSECMISSISSIPPI STATE
3-0
86
79
63
34%
72
88
0.0
—
—
HOME
#1AP
2FPI
TEXSECTEXAS
3-0
99
62
81
72%
96
91
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MSST58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
78
PROE
24
TEMPO
72
EXPLOSIVE78p
78
PROE24p
24
TEMPO72p
72
TEX65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
74
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE74p
74
TEMPO96p
96
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSISSIPPI STATETEXAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB78%Blake ShapenQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB68%Brylan LanierS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahron ManningS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAgo BrumfieldCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB59%Nic MitchellLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranden JenningsLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalick SyllaLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL59%Jacoby JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayvin JamesOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlbert Reese IVOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Seydou TraoreDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenen ThompsonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan MosleyWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Davon BoothRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Kedrick Bingley-JonesPORTAL · ALABAMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRed HibblerDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeonte AndersonDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrodie McWhorter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBralan Womack · SIGNEE ★4Terrell Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Camron Brown · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLTyler Miller · PORTAL ★3 · LSUDalton Toothman · SIGNEE ★3Leon Noil Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEMarquis Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIZayion Cotton · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Cration · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCooper Crosby · SIGNEE ★3Jaeden Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDealyn Evans · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MAmaree Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJayson Jenkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSISSIPPI STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.950 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.250 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.555 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252958052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757807865 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626262522111 OF 21 GRADED
OL555565252213 OF 22 GRADED
DL434377551912 OF 19 GRADED
LB373782100117 OF 11 GRADED
DB585864272513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE86th86
BLUE-CHIP RATIO38%87
RECRUITING CLASS#23 · 4/28 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 27 IN / 40 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
5656
EXPLOSIVENESS
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HAVOC
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSSTJEFF LEBBY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
6161
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
33
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSST OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
95
PERF
52
RET
80
NATIONAL
27OF 136
RET
55
FULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE
MSST QUARTERBACKSn=520% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAMARIO TAYLORQBRET
682ND YR5395★4+21
PARKER PUCKETTQBRET
501ST YR17—UNR—
AJ SWANNQBPORTAL · APP STATE
454TH YR—64★3-19 2025
JADEN RASHADAQBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
403RD YR—45★3-41 2025
BRODIE MCWHORTERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6283%68%
LINEBACKERSLB
7326%27%
SECONDARYDB
6482%71%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
54OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
55
RET
25
DL
30OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
10OF 138
LB RET
26
FRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE
MSST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2275% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CANON BOONEOLRET
544TH YR—61★3+36 2025
JAKHEEM SHUMPERT-PERKINSOLRET
523RD YR——UNR—
SAQUON MILESOLRET
523RD YR——UNR—
TJ LOCKHARTOLRET
522ND YR—72★3—
BLAKE STEENOLRET
503RD YR—78★3-27 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RASHEEM BILESLBPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
924TH YR9598★4+16
COLIN SIMMONSEDGERET
863RD YR93100★5+43
ALEX JANUARYDLRET
683RD YR6983★3-22
HERO KANUDLRET
604TH YR8289★3-1
IAN GEFFRARDDLPORTAL · ARKANSAS
584TH YR8197★4-34
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
57
RET
78
DL
30OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
10OF 138
LB RET
26
FRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE
MSST RUNNING BACKSn=622% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FLUFF BOTHWELLRBRET
573RD YR9295★4+26
XAVIER GAYTENRBRET
543RD YR4684★4+34
J.J. HILLRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1874★3—
KOLIN WILSONRBRET
511ST YR2259★3+35
COOPER CROSBYRBTRUE FR
471ST YR1179★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556283%68%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457326%27%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
62
RET
52
DB
12OF 138
DB RET
82
SECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE
MSST PASS CATCHERSn=2148% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY EVANS IIIWRRET
584TH YR9364★3+3
MATT MAYFIELDWRTRUE FR
523RD YR—74★3—
SANFRISCO MAGEEWRRET
512ND YR3374★3—
RILEY WILLIAMSTEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
503RD YR5545★3+6
SAM WESTTERET
503RD YR3828★3+9
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BO MASCOEDBPORTAL · RUTGERS
884TH YR9495★4+6
JELANI MCDONALDDBRET
714TH YR9597★4+15
WARREN ROBERSONDBRET
523RD YR5391★4+43
DEREK WILLIAMS JR.DBRET
503RD YR8164★3+16
KADE PHILLIPSDBRET
492ND YR5699★5+11
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.9
46.6
— OFFENSE
67.7
54.6
— DEFENSE
36.0
38.6
SP+ OVERALL
10.0
25.0
FPI
14.1
28.1
ELO
1663
1935
TALENT
805
985
PRODUCTION
63
96
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+14
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.38
0.61
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
OFF EFFICIENCY
46
31
DEF EFFICIENCY
32
69
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
91
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
47
81
FINISHING DRIVES
81
28
FIELD POSITION
52
15
TURNOVER MARGIN
49
73
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
PASS RATE
45.6%
47.6%
PACE
26.2s
23.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.5%
60.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
46.0%
65.8%
PLAYS / GAME
68.7
76.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.4%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSST, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE