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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›STAN @ LOU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
STANFORD
LOUISVILLE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
102FPI
STANACCSTANFORD
1-2
64
23
68
21%
45
73
0.0
—
—
HOME
#23AP
23FPI
LOUACCLOUISVILLE
2-1
74
72
84
35%
37
55
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
STAN41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
58
TEMPO
45
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE58p
58
TEMPO45p
45
LOU68CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
83
PROE
85
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE83p
83
PROE85p
85
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
STANRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
STANFORD won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.1
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSTANFORDLOUISVILLE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Ben GulbransonQB · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah BrownPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE73%Sam RoushDRAFTED · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONC.J. WilliamsDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce FarrellWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%Clay PattersonDL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony FranklinDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach BuckeyDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB32%Cole TabbPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB31%Mitch LeigberS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCollin WrightCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB26%Wilfredo AybarLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHunter BarthLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL16%Emeka UgorjiOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDavis Warren · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANMike Mitchell Jr. · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TENico Brown · PORTAL ★3 · YALEZion Robinson · SIGNEE ★4Marcus Monroe · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLMax Meier · SIGNEE ★3Keysaun Eleazer · SIGNEE ★3Lucas Shanafelt · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBLeroy Bryant · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONLasiah Jackson · SIGNEE ★4Xavier Harmon · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBWassie Lugolobi · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDara Adeyemi · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLJay Miller · SIGNEE ★4Blaise Thomassie · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · STANFORD
CARRIED COMPOSITE
59.995 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.275 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
66.796 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB393945062 OF 6 GRADED
RB5151759754 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE535366572215 OF 22 GRADED
OL37377768188 OF 18 GRADED
DL444464100126 OF 12 GRADED
LB373768100218 OF 21 GRADED
DB50505783229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%54
RECRUITING CLASS#37 · 4/23 BC73
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LOUJEFF BROHM4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
6262
PASS RATE
7575
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
STANTAVITA PRITCHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSTAN OFFENSELOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSTANFORD OFFENSE
NATIONAL
113OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
39
RET
0
NATIONAL
24OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSELOUISVILLE DEFENSE
STAN QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVIS WARRENQBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
494TH YR6745★3-2
MICHAEL MITCHELL JR.QBTRUE FR
371ST YR277★3—
DYLAN RIZKQBRET
523RD YR—64★3+14 2024
CHARLIE MIRERQBRET
434TH YR—34★3—
DEVIN MIGNERYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6358%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
5288%40%
SECONDARYDB
6827%26%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSTANFORD OFFENSE
NATIONAL
115OF 138
TAL
77
PERF
37
RET
68
DL
24OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
58OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE
STAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1832% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NIKI PRONGOSOLRET
544TH YR—64★3-25 2025
CHARLIE HOITINKOLRET
522ND YR5480★3—
HAYDEN GUNTEROLRET
492ND YR2067★3—
SIMIONE PALEOLRET
493RD YR—79★3-3 2025
JOSH WILLIAMSOTRET
492ND YR6979★3+18
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLEV LUBINDLRET
834TH YR9278★3+49
JEROD SMITH IIDLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
583RD YR—64★3-7 2025
MICAH CARTERDLRET
553RD YR4364★3—
AJ GREENDLRET
543RD YR7595★4+36
DAYLEN RUSSELLDLPORTAL · MIAMI
521ST YR2845★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSTANFORD OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
51
RET
97
DL
24OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
58OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE
STAN RUNNING BACKSn=53% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHAMP HAMPTONRBRET
503RD YR3157★3-42
MICAH FORDRBRET
503RD YR9273★3-35
TUNA ALTAHIRRBRET
484TH YR3045★3-46
SEDRICK IRVINRBRET
474TH YR6381★3-25
CHRIS DAVIS JR.RBRET
462ND YR5080★3-5
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556358%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455288%40%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESTANFORD OFFENSE
NATIONAL
54OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
53
RET
57
DB
10OF 138
DB RET
27
SECONDARYLOUISVILLE DEFENSE
STAN PASS CATCHERSn=2243% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BENJI BLACKBURNTERET
533RD YR6269★3-19
ATTICUS JOSEPHWRTRUE FR
521ST YR2765★3—
JONANTHONY HALLWRRET
521ST YR3593★4—
LIAM THORPEWRRET
512ND YR3360★3—
ZION ROBINSONWRTRUE FR
491ST YR2893★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM73% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KOEN ENTRINGERDBPORTAL · IOWA
853RD YR9189★3+28
DJ WALLER JR.CBPORTAL · KENTUCKY
523RD YR6464★3-31
TAYON HOLLOWAYDBRET
514TH YR—78★3-3 2025
JABARI MACKDBRET
494TH YR9928★3-6
ANTONIO WATTSDBRET
494TH YR9839★3+29
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.7
48.3
— OFFENSE
52.8
54.3
— DEFENSE
40.7
42.3
SP+ OVERALL
-3.9
14.1
FPI
-7.9
13.9
ELO
1311
1690
TALENT
706
740
PRODUCTION
42
81
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+27
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.12
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
OFF EFFICIENCY
10
73
DEF EFFICIENCY
39
89
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
39
29
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
25
75
FINISHING DRIVES
19
36
FIELD POSITION
99
8
TURNOVER MARGIN
39
71
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
PASS RATE
60.3%
43.2%
PACE
27.8s
28.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
49.6%
64.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
79.1%
66.0%
PLAYS / GAME
64.7
63.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.1%
3.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = STAN, ORANGE = LOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE