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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›WIS @ IOWA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WISCONSIN
IOWA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KINNICK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
53FPI
WISB1GWISCONSIN
2-1
79
29
81
31%
15
51
0.0
—
—
HOME
#18AP
28FPI
IOWAB1GIOWA
3-0
69
48
93
34%
64
59
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WIS36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
81
PROE
12
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE81p
81
PROE12p
12
TEMPO15p
15
IOWA40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
16
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE16p
16
TEMPO64p
64
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WISRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
WISCONSIN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWISCONSINIOWA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL88%Ben BartenDL · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJay'viar SuggsDL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon LaneDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB77%Ricardo HallmanCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin BrownS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeimere Latimer IIPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE75%Lance MasonTE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVinny Anthony IIWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrech KekahunaPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL66%Riley MahlmanOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe BrunnerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavis HeinzenOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB63%Dilin JonesPORTAL · LSU · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGideon ItukaRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade YacamelliPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB56%Mason ReigerLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian AlliegroPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarryl PetersonLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB45%Hunter SimmonsQB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBilly Edwards Jr.PORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLJustus Boone · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASJunior Poyser · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALOLiam Danitz · PORTAL ★3 · HOPE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMarvin Burks Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIEric Fletcher · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECarsen Eloms · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEShamar Rigby · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJacob Harris · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENZion Kearney · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLAustin Kawecki · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEStylz Blackmon · PORTAL ★3 · AUGUSTANABrady Bekkenhuis · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBAbu Sama III · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEREFILLED
LBBen Wenzel · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBColton Joseph · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONRyan Hopkins · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WISCONSIN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
29.822 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
30.333 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
29.620 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB383878051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5858852182 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4646742424CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL525281019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL73737350124 OF 12 GRADED
LB75758389228 OF 22 GRADED
DB48486540195 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE79th79
BLUE-CHIP RATIO29%79
RECRUITING CLASS#78 · 1/14 BC42
CLASS RANK TREND-55 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
44
PASS RATE
1111
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
22
HAVOC
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WISLUKE FICKELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
5353
EXPLOSIVENESS
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HAVOC
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWIS OFFENSEIOWA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWISCONSIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
38
RET
0
NATIONAL
15OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSEIOWA DEFENSE
WIS QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLTON JOSEPHQBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
613RD YR8378★3+16
RYAN HOPKINSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—79★3—
DEUCE ADAMSQBPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
492ND YR—45★3—
CARTER SMITHQBRET
461ST YR—90★4-35 2025
DANNY O'NEILQBRET
453RD YR—64★3+20 2025
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5474%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
5173%46%
SECONDARYDB
5052%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWISCONSIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
52
RET
0
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE
WIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMERSON MANDELLOLRET
672ND YR—93★4-12 2025
PJ WILKINSOLPORTAL · OLE MISS
533RD YR—64★3+13 2025
BARRETT NELSONOLRET
524TH YR—80★3—
LUCAS SIMMONS-JOHANSSONOLTRUE FR
523RD YR—45★3—
BLAKE CHERRYOLPORTAL · ARKANSAS
492ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE HAWTHORNEDLRET
584TH YR5992★4-28
DEVAN KENNEDYDLRET
523RD YR1966★3—
EMMANUEL OLAGBAJUDLPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA
524TH YR678★3—
BRICE STEVENSONDLPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
524TH YR617★3—
LUKE GAFFNEYDLRET
514TH YR33—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWISCONSIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
58
RET
21
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE
WIS RUNNING BACKSn=879% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ABU SAMA IIIRBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
584TH YR9785★3+8
NATE PALMERRBPORTAL · TCU
522ND YR—45★3-8 2025
BRYAN JACKSON IIRBTRUE FR
483RD YR—64★3-14 2025
DARRION DUPREERBRET
453RD YR7987★4-16
MASON LANERBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555474%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455173%46%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWISCONSIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
85OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
46
RET
24
DB
73OF 138
DB RET
52
SECONDARYIOWA DEFENSE
WIS PASS CATCHERSn=2476% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRANT STECTERET
542ND YR3590★4—
EUGENE HILTON JR.WRRET
492ND YR4183★3-13
JACOB HARRISTEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
483RD YR5678★30
CHRIS BROOKS JR.WRRET
464TH YR5339★3+19
TYRELL HENRYWRRET
464TH YR6985★3-33
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM48% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH LUTMERDBRET
854TH YR8858★3-9
TYLER BROWNDBTRUE FR
633RD YR—64★3+49 2025
JAYLEN WATSONDBRET
543RD YR—67★3-19 2025
DESHAUN LEEDBRET
524TH YR9863★3-31
RASHAD GODFREY JR.DBRET
513RD YR4169★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.8
54.5
— OFFENSE
39.9
59.6
— DEFENSE
41.6
49.4
SP+ OVERALL
1.9
13.8
FPI
4.8
12.1
ELO
1580
1841
TALENT
768
723
PRODUCTION
61
85
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+20
−11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.29
0.20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
OFF EFFICIENCY
11
67
DEF EFFICIENCY
16
75
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
25
2
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
93
98
FINISHING DRIVES
1
80
FIELD POSITION
66
4
TURNOVER MARGIN
2
75
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
PASS RATE
49.1%
47.0%
PACE
30.9s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
55.6%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.8%
60.7%
PLAYS / GAME
58.3
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.6%
4.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WIS, ORANGE = IOWA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE