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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›BUF @ M-OH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BUFFALO
MIAMI (OH)
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
TUE 19:00 ET|YAGER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP25|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
128FPI
BUFMACBUFFALO
1-2
13
6
32
-1%
67
0
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
104FPI
M-OHMACMIAMI (OH)
1-2
38
10
31
14%
4
17
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BUF69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
72
TEMPO
67
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE72p
72
TEMPO67p
67
M-OH41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
90
PROE
30
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE90p
90
PROE30p
30
TEMPO4p
4
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
BUFFALO won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
7-6ACTUALvs7.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.1
MIAMI (OH) won 7 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBUFFALOMIAMI (OH)2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Ta'Quan RobersonQB · 88% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGunnar GrayQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL96%Henry TabansiOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor BrockOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler DotyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL87%Malin WhiteDE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobe StewartDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge WoloDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB73%Red MurdockDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion CrawfordPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitchell GonserLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%Victor SnowPORTAL · NC STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNik McMillanPORTAL · KANSAS · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus VelezTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Al-Jay HendersonRB · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLamar SperlingPORTAL · UTEP · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB49%Solomon BrownCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McNairPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis CooperPORTAL · TOWSON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBElijah Holmes · PORTAL ★3 · WINGATEQur'an McNeill · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJoe Crocker · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORNathan Natoli · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLNino Francavilla · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLStantavious Smith · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MLogan Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA-PENNSYLVANIALogan Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · IU PENNSYLVANIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJoey Cheshire · PORTAL ★3 · CORNELLStevie Bracey · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAZach Bergmann · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEAaron Clark · SIGNEE ★3Aiden Howard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChase Enlow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBSayre Smothers · PORTAL ★3 · THE CITADELBryce Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BUFFALO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.214 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
14.811 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.123 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB232317051 OF 5 GRADED
RB34344210063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE36364147229 OF 22 GRADED
OL5555440196 OF 19 GRADED
DL49493067219 OF 21 GRADED
LB46463250157 OF 15 GRADED
DB50503696227 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE13th13
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#101 · 0/19 BC25
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
PACE
00
PASS RATE
3131
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BUFPETE LEMBO3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
PACE
7171
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HAVOC
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBUF OFFENSEM-OH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
137OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
23
RET
0
NATIONAL
74OF 136
RET
39
FULL DEFENSEMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
BUF QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JASON WRIGHTQBRET
522ND YR—47★3—
ELIJAH HOLMESQBPORTAL · WINGATE
434TH YR—17★3-40
QUR'AN MCNEILLQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—72★3—
MASON CUMBIEQBRET
324TH YR—10★2—
JAKE FORBURGERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4372%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
5770%0%
SECONDARYDB
4450%9%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
44
PERF
55
RET
0
DL
99OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
38OF 138
LB RET
70
FRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
BUF OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THOMAS BARROLRET
522ND YR—50★3—
JACKSON BELLAMYOLRET
523RD YR—21★3—
AHMAAN THOMASOLRET
523RD YR—8★2—
NINO FRANCAVILLAOLPORTAL · MIAMI
524TH YR—28★3—
GABRIEL ARENAOLRET
494TH YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ YOUNGLBTRUE FR
753RD YR8322★3-22
BLAYNE MYRICKLBPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
624TH YR9728★3+22
DEVIN BELLDLRET
572ND YR5822★3+10
JAVON HAMMONDSDLRET
552ND YR—74★3—
MALCOLM MCCAINLBRET
503RD YR8030★3+18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
42
PERF
34
RET
100
DL
99OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
38OF 138
LB RET
70
FRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
BUF RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES MCNEIL JR.RBRET
523RD YR28—UNR+37
MESSIAH BURCHRBRET
524TH YR4619★3+12
TERRANCE SHELTON JR.RBRET
453RD YR5848★3-38
NINO HILLRBRET
352ND YR—35★3—
CHASE ENLOWRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—74★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554372%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455770%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
36
RET
47
DB
114OF 138
DB RET
50
SECONDARYMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
BUF PASS CATCHERSn=2253% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLINT WALKERTETRUE FR
504TH YR——UNR—
TREVOR WILSONTEPORTAL · CAMPBELL
504TH YR—9★3—
DWAYNE EARLY JR.WRRET
492ND YR—49★3—
JAYLEN ANDREWSWRTRUE FR
483RD YR——UNR—
CHANCE MORROWWRRET
464TH YR6067★3+33
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DILLON TATUMDBPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
514TH YR8589★4-18
AMARIYUN KNIGHTENDBPORTAL · INDIANA
514TH YR8589★3-19
JACKSON PONSDBRET
502ND YR3534★3—
BEN MINICHDBPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
504TH YR4087★4—
JERMAINE AGEEDBRET
482ND YR339★2—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.0
39.3
— OFFENSE
54.2
48.4
— DEFENSE
55.9
30.3
SP+ OVERALL
-13.9
-6.6
FPI
-16.6
-8.4
ELO
1288
1263
TALENT
549
621
PRODUCTION
19
39
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−8
−21
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.07
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
OFF EFFICIENCY
22
20
DEF EFFICIENCY
72
68
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
17
32
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
72
FINISHING DRIVES
33
45
FIELD POSITION
41
14
TURNOVER MARGIN
16
52
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
PASS RATE
56.4%
50.9%
PACE
26.5s
33.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.3%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.6%
69.8%
PLAYS / GAME
68.0
54.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
7.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BUF, ORANGE = M-OH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE