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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›BALL @ MASS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BALL STATE
MASSACHUSETTS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
WED 00:00 ET|WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
131FPI
BALLMACBALL STATE
1-1
18
1
24
6%
37
7
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
117FPI
MASSMACMASSACHUSETTS
2-0
7
0
1
-57%
2
11
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BALL46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
92
PROE
9
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE92p
92
PROE9p
9
TEMPO37p
37
MASS34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
38
PROE
61
TEMPO
2
EXPLOSIVE38p
38
PROE61p
61
TEMPO2p
2
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BALLRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.0
BALL STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MASSRECORD MATCHES
0-12ACTUALvs0.6-11.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-27.5
MASSACHUSETTS won 0 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 0.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBALL STATEMASSACHUSETTS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Kiael KellyQB · 100% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB82%Alfred CheaLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoey StemlerLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack BeebeLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL82%Nathan VoorhisDE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarin ConleyPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew HughesDT · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB75%Joedrick LewisDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoman PearsonPORTAL · KANSAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Gravely Jr.DB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE74%Kam AnthonyTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQian MagwoodWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric WeatherlyPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Qua AshleyPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL53%Aaron RobertsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac LucasOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOtto HessOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTyler Mizzell · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORD UNIVERSITYTyler Mizzell · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORDMason Atkins · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLJared Badie · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEKendrick Gilbert · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEKeilan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBZyon Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJabari Smith Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICCorey Thompson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEDJ Young · PORTAL ★3 · SIENA HEIGHTS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJohnny Thompson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASChar'rese Breveard · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJacob Jeudy · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORD UNIVERSITYJacob Jeudy · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORDMisael Sandoval · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILT3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BALL STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.011 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
23.420 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
21.314 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB515147052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838237364 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE353533662212 OF 22 GRADED
OL33332740216 OF 21 GRADED
DL424228451914 OF 19 GRADED
LB424225281310 OF 13 GRADED
DB393930312415 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%14
RECRUITING CLASS#113 · 0/19 BC16
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 24 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MASSJOE HARASYMIAK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7171
PACE
4444
PASS RATE
9191
EXPLOSIVENESS
1414
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5050
HAVOC
00
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BALLMIKE UREMOVICH2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
66
PACE
44
PASS RATE
1818
EXPLOSIVENESS
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
99
HAVOC
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBALL OFFENSEMASS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBALL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
51
RET
0
NATIONAL
134OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEMASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE
BALL QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KELDRIC LUSTERQBPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
463RD YR3947★3-56
TYLER MIZZELLQBPORTAL · CONCORD
433RD YR845★3—
KHALEL WRIGHTQBRET
351ST YR—38★3—
MASON ATKINSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—59★3—
BODIE DERRERQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
186%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
1869%0%
SECONDARYDB
3161%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBALL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
125OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
33
RET
40
DL
137OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
138OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7MASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE
BALL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2160% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRANT HAWORTHOLRET
522ND YR—25★3—
MISAEL SANDOVALOLPORTAL · VANDERBILT
523RD YR—28★3—
BRADY BARROWMANOLRET
521ST YR—24★3—
JACOB JEUDYOLPORTAL · CONCORD
504TH YR—45★3—
ZACH BANDYOLRET
482ND YR—33★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS68% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER MARTINLBRET
544TH YR9328★3-5
ROMANDO JOHNSONDLRET
522ND YR3028★3—
AUBREY MELVINDLPORTAL · UCONN
522ND YR2445★3—
HOLLIS DIRSTINEDLTRUE FR
524TH YR21—UNR—
ANDREW DEPAEPEDLPORTAL · INDIANA
513RD YR3895★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBALL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
123OF 138
TAL
23
PERF
38
RET
73
DL
137OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
138OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7MASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE
BALL RUNNING BACKSn=627% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH JACKSONRBRET
503RD YR319★3+36
JALEN BONDSRBRET
471ST YR419★2-62 2025
TJ HORTONRBRET
473RD YR6133★3-41
JOHNNY THOMPSON JR.RBPORTAL · KANSAS
463RD YR3928★3+1
CHAR'RESE BREVEARDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—47★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS65% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55186%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.451869%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBALL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
35
RET
66
DB
135OF 138
DB RET
61
SECONDARYMASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE
BALL PASS CATCHERSn=2234% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TATE HOOVERTERET
513RD YR27—UNR—
JAMARION MCDOUGLEWRRET
504TH YR3032★3—
ALEX SCHERLETEPORTAL · RICE
494TH YR317★3—
JABARI SMITH JR.WRPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
483RD YR—45★3+33 2025
CJ NELSONWRPORTAL · EASTERN ILLINOIS
484TH YR2171★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DD SNYDERSRET
634TH YR7817★3-2
ZERAUN DANIELSRET
584TH YR76—UNR+6
ISAIAH REEDCBPORTAL · UCF
524TH YR372★3—
DAVID CHIAVEGATOSTRUE FR
521ST YR2031★3—
MICHAEL ROBINSONDBTRUE FR
524TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.4
46.5
— OFFENSE
59.8
57.1
— DEFENSE
31.0
35.9
SP+ OVERALL
-21.3
-25.2
FPI
-17.8
-11.2
ELO
1076
1049
TALENT
564
526
PRODUCTION
4
0
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−2
+24
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.08
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
OFF EFFICIENCY
0
2
DEF EFFICIENCY
17
4
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
79
21
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
45
92
FINISHING DRIVES
3
0
FIELD POSITION
78
96
TURNOVER MARGIN
30
29
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
PASS RATE
57.9%
36.3%
PACE
28.6s
35.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
42.5%
72.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.7%
59.3%
PLAYS / GAME
63.0
51.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BALL, ORANGE = MASS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE