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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›VAN @ MSST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
VANDERBILT
MISSISSIPPI STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DAVIS WADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
39FPI
VANSECVANDERBILT
2-0
70
100
44
35%
40
99
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
27FPI
MSSTSECMISSISSIPPI STATE
2-0
86
79
63
34%
89
91
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
VAN45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
15
PROE
80
TEMPO
40
EXPLOSIVE15p
15
PROE80p
80
TEMPO40p
40
MSST58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
62
PROE
24
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE62p
62
PROE24p
24
TEMPO89p
89
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
VANRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
VANDERBILT won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVANDERBILTMISSISSIPPI STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%Diego PaviaQB · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL76%Isaia GlassOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase MitchellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce HendersonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Khordae SydnorDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZaylin WoodDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua SinghDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE56%Eli StowersDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre RichardsonPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichie HoskinsWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Randon FontenettePORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlen SewellS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolbey TaylorCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB29%Langston PattersonLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPrince KollieLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB10%AJ NewberryPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJared Curtis · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
OLBeau Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATEMicah DeBose · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAMitchell Smith · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLBrian Allen · PORTAL ★4 · IOWAJace McCallum · SIGNEE ★3Daryl Campbell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJa'Cory Thomas · PORTAL ★4 · OLD DOMINIONJayvontay Conner · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINATilden Riley · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBRicardo Jones · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONCollin Flanigan · SIGNEE ★4Bradley Brown · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDaniel Vollmer Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBEvan Hampton · SIGNEE ★4Izayah Lee · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VANDERBILT
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.974 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.256 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.878 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7878856752 OF 5 GRADED
RB56565410084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE75756448229 OF 22 GRADED
OL54546363188 OF 18 GRADED
DL585862602412 OF 24 GRADED
LB585855100115 OF 11 GRADED
DB585874752315 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE70th70
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%71
RECRUITING CLASS#33 · 5/23 BC76
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 18 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSSTJEFF LEBBY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
6161
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
33
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VANCLARK LEA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
1010
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVAN OFFENSEMSST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
78
RET
67
NATIONAL
57OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSEMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
VAN QUARTERBACKSn=533% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BLAZE BERLOWITZQBRET
514TH YR3578★3+20
JARED CURTISQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—100★5—
WHIT MUSCHAMPQBRET
413RD YR—69★3—
JACK ELLIOTTQBRET
352ND YR—67★3—
DREW COWARTQBTRUE FR
322ND YR—6★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4155%37%
LINEBACKERSLB
36100%27%
SECONDARYDB
5827%29%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
54
RET
63
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
55
LB
112OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
VAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1837% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYNDON COOPEROLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
514TH YR—64★3+34 2025
ORION IRVINGOLRET
504TH YR—45★3-2 2025
GUNNER GIVENSOLRET
494TH YR—28★3—
CADE MCCONNELLOLRET
494TH YR—73★3-2 2025
MITCHELL SMITHOLTRUE FR
491ST YR—88★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS27% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WILL WHITSONDLRET
734TH YR5471★3—
KALVIN DINKINSDLRET
554TH YR6765★3-37
TREVION WILLIAMSDLRET
543RD YR8393★4-27
DEALYN EVANSDLPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
522ND YR4992★4—
LAKENDRICK JAMESLBRET
523RD YR26—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
56
RET
100
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
55
LB
112OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
VAN RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SEDRICK ALEXANDERRBRET
684TH YR9775★3-14
MAKHILYN YOUNGRBRET
604TH YR5810★3+35 2025
JAMEZELL LASSITERRBRET
523RD YR21—UNR+37
EVAN HAMPTONRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—84★4—
GABE FISHERFBRET
544TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554155%37%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4536100%27%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
75
RET
48
DB
39OF 138
DB RET
27
SECONDARYMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
VAN PASS CATCHERSn=2252% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JA'CORY THOMASWRPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
693RD YR7392★4+33
JUNIOR SHERRILLWRRET
664TH YR9856★3+15
JAYVONTAY CONNERTEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
653RD YR5589★3+52
MAURICE VENEYTEPORTAL · MOREHOUSE
523RD YR—28★3—
WALTER TAYLORTETRUE FR
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM73% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAAC SMITHSRET
954TH YR9395★4+47
KENDEL DOLBYSPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
914TH YR7864★3+8
KELLEY JONESCBRET
704TH YR9386★4+16
JARDIN GILBERTSPORTAL · LSU
614TH YR—64★3+11 2025
BRALAN WOMACKSTRUE FR
521ST YR1298★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.7
51.9
— OFFENSE
56.3
67.7
— DEFENSE
39.0
36.0
SP+ OVERALL
10.1
10.0
FPI
6.8
12.2
ELO
1746
1642
TALENT
727
805
PRODUCTION
79
63
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−17
+14
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.21
0.38
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
OFF EFFICIENCY
97
46
DEF EFFICIENCY
47
32
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
68
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
23
47
FINISHING DRIVES
100
81
FIELD POSITION
41
52
TURNOVER MARGIN
45
49
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
PASS RATE
45.3%
43.8%
PACE
28.1s
24.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.2%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.0%
34.4%
PLAYS / GAME
64.0
73.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
4.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VAN, ORANGE = MSST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE