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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›NEB @ ILL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEBRASKA
ILLINOIS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 20:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
20FPI
NEBB1GNEBRASKA
2-0
85
73
73
46%
73
77
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
49FPI
ILLB1GILLINOIS
1-1
64
71
60
21%
13
78
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NEB78CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
91
PROE
70
TEMPO
73
EXPLOSIVE91p
91
PROE70p
70
TEMPO73p
73
ILL39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
59
TEMPO
13
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE59p
59
TEMPO13p
13
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NEBRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
NEBRASKA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEBRASKAILLINOIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB74%Emmett JohnsonDRAFTED · 73% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB67%Dylan RaiolaQB · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB61%Javin WrightLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDasan McCulloughLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Watson-TrentLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Henry LutovskyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRocco SpindlerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTurner CorcoranOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Ceyair WrightDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeShon SingletonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Buford Jr.DB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL33%Elijah JeudyDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeona DavisPORTAL · MIAMI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE24%Dane KeyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHeinrich HaarbergTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJamal Rule · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAnthony Colandrea · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVDaniel Kaelin · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAREFILLED
LBOwen Chambliss · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEWill Hawthorne · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEJase Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrendan Black · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATETree Babalade · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAPaul Mubenga · PORTAL ★3 · LSU3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDwayne McDougle · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEJasin Shiggs · PORTAL ★3 · TOWSONVictor Evans III · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLAnthony Jones · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJahsear Whittington · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHOwen Stoudmire · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEKwazi Gilmer · PORTAL ★3 · UCLALuke Sorensen · SIGNEE ★3Nalin Scott · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEBRASKA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.988 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.974 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.990 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414178041 OF 4 GRADED
RB7171796254 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE555582802511 OF 25 GRADED
OL54547858207 OF 20 GRADED
DL494979502117 OF 21 GRADED
LB52526961145 OF 14 GRADED
DB626268722111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%83
RECRUITING CLASS#88 · 3/12 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND-70 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEBMATT RHULE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
PACE
1919
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HAVOC
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEB OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
41
RET
0
NATIONAL
60OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE
NEB QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY COLANDREAQBPORTAL · UNLV
764TH YR9878★3+5
TJ LATEEFQBRET
502ND YR—91★4+5 2025
DANIEL KAELINQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
472ND YR—45★3-28 2025
BODE SOUKUPQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4948%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4973%7%
SECONDARYDB
6164%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
62OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
54
RET
58
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
63OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE
NEB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2042% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTIN EVANSOLRET
774TH YR—43★3+31 2025
BRENDAN BLACKOLPORTAL · IOWA STATE
654TH YR—97★4-2 2025
GUNNAR GOTTULAOLRET
553RD YR—78★3-35 2025
TREE BABALADEOLPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
553RD YR—78★3-16 2025
TYLER KNAAKOLRET
524TH YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS42% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EAN RHEADLPORTAL · EMORY & HENRY
524TH YR3128★3—
CARTER JANKIDLPORTAL · PENNSYLVANIA
524TH YR2817★3—
ISMAEL KANTELBRET
524TH YR45—UNR—
DEMETRIUS JOHNDLRET
512ND YR3174★3—
GRANT BEERMANLBRET
492ND YR3185★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
79
PERF
71
RET
62
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
63OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE
NEB RUNNING BACKSn=538% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH MOZEERBRET
562ND YR4289★4-30
MEKHI NELSONRBRET
542ND YR4577★3+12
JAMAL RULERBTRUE FR
521ST YR3077★3+36
KWINTEN IVESRBRET
513RD YR—67★3+31 2025
CONOR BOOTHRBRET
491ST YR—77★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554948%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454973%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
55
RET
80
DB
25OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE
NEB PASS CATCHERSn=2520% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE LINDENMEYERTERET
584TH YR76—UNR+5
NYZIAH HUNTERWRRET
533RD YR9592★4+8
JACORY BARNEY JR.WRRET
513RD YR9485★4-1
KEELAN SMITHWRRET
492ND YR—73★3—
QUINN CLARKWRRET
482ND YR4258★3+11
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TANNER HECKELDBRET
763RD YR—53★3-8 2025
MATTHEW BAILEYDBRET
714TH YR10035★3+23
XAVIER SCOTTDBRET
604TH YR10048★3-16
JUICE CLARKEDBRET
584TH YR9054★3-15
MAC RESETICHDBRET
544TH YR7464★3+60
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.4
42.3
— OFFENSE
58.9
48.8
— DEFENSE
44.0
35.9
SP+ OVERALL
13.0
7.2
FPI
14.8
4.5
ELO
1705
1589
TALENT
787
704
PRODUCTION
77
80
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+8
−28
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.31
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
OFF EFFICIENCY
86
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
36
11
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
14
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
40
81
FINISHING DRIVES
45
89
FIELD POSITION
11
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
56
41
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
PASS RATE
48.2%
47.3%
PACE
25.9s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.3%
59.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
55.9%
70.8%
PLAYS / GAME
69.5
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEB, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE