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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›BUF @ BALL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BUFFALO
BALL STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
WED 00:00 ET|SCHEUMANN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
128FPI
BUFMACBUFFALO
1-2
13
6
32
-1%
67
2
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
134FPI
BALLMACBALL STATE
1-2
18
1
24
6%
22
11
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BUF69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
72
TEMPO
67
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE72p
72
TEMPO67p
67
BALL34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
9
TEMPO
22
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE9p
9
TEMPO22p
22
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
BUFRECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs0.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-17.0
BUFFALO won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 0.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BALLRECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs0.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-21.7
BALL STATE won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 0.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBUFFALOBALL STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Ta'Quan RobersonQB · 88% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGunnar GrayQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL96%Henry TabansiOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor BrockOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler DotyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL87%Malin WhiteDE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobe StewartDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge WoloDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB73%Red MurdockDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion CrawfordPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitchell GonserLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%Victor SnowPORTAL · NC STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNik McMillanPORTAL · KANSAS · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus VelezTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Al-Jay HendersonRB · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLamar SperlingPORTAL · UTEP · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB49%Solomon BrownCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McNairPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis CooperPORTAL · TOWSON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBElijah Holmes · PORTAL ★3 · WINGATEQur'an McNeill · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJoe Crocker · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORNathan Natoli · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLNino Francavilla · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLLogan Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA-PENNSYLVANIAStantavious Smith · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MLogan Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · IU PENNSYLVANIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJoey Cheshire · PORTAL ★3 · CORNELLStevie Bracey · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAZach Bergmann · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEAaron Clark · SIGNEE ★3Aiden Howard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChase Enlow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBSayre Smothers · PORTAL ★3 · THE CITADELBryce Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BUFFALO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.213 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
14.811 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.122 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB232317051 OF 5 GRADED
RB34344110063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE36364147219 OF 21 GRADED
OL5555440186 OF 18 GRADED
DL49493067209 OF 20 GRADED
LB46463250157 OF 15 GRADED
DB50503696207 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE13th13
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#101 · 0/19 BC25
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 18 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BALLMIKE UREMOVICH2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
PACE
99
PASS RATE
5151
EXPLOSIVENESS
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
99
HAVOC
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BUFPETE LEMBO3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
7878
PASS RATE
7070
EXPLOSIVENESS
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HAVOC
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBUF OFFENSEBALL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
137OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
23
RET
0
NATIONAL
104OF 136
RET
38
FULL DEFENSEBALL STATE DEFENSE
BUF QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JASON WRIGHTQBRET
522ND YR—47★3-56
ELIJAH HOLMESQBPORTAL · WINGATE
434TH YR4417★3-34
QUR'AN MCNEILLQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—72★3—
MASON CUMBIEQBRET
324TH YR—10★2—
JAKE FORBURGERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS66% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4245%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
4228%0%
SECONDARYDB
3931%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
44
PERF
55
RET
0
DL
101OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
91OF 138
LB RET
28
FRONT-7BALL STATE DEFENSE
BUF OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THOMAS BARROLRET
522ND YR4350★3—
JACKSON BELLAMYOLRET
523RD YR4321★3—
AHMAAN THOMASOLRET
523RD YR—8★2—
NINO FRANCAVILLAOLPORTAL · MIAMI
524TH YR5128★3—
GABRIEL ARENAOLRET
494TH YR5528★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS62% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENDRICK GILBERTDTPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
524TH YR4845★3—
KEILAN SMITHDTPORTAL · CINCINNATI
524TH YR2628★3—
LUCAS SZYMBORSKILBRET
522ND YR2940★3—
KALEB STEWARTLBTRUE FR
523RD YR2936★3—
MAVERICK GRACIODEPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
504TH YR4528★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
34
RET
100
DL
101OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
91OF 138
LB RET
28
FRONT-7BALL STATE DEFENSE
BUF RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES MCNEIL JR.RBRET
523RD YR37—UNR+37
MESSIAH BURCHRBRET
524TH YR5419★3+14
TERRANCE SHELTON JR.RBRET
453RD YR6948★3-40
NINO HILLRBRET
352ND YR—35★3—
CHASE ENLOWRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—74★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554245%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454228%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
36
RET
47
DB
128OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYBALL STATE DEFENSE
BUF PASS CATCHERSn=2153% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLINT WALKERTETRUE FR
504TH YR44—UNR—
TREVOR WILSONTEPORTAL · CAMPBELL
504TH YR299★3—
DWAYNE EARLY JR.WRRET
492ND YR2149★3—
JAYLEN ANDREWSWRTRUE FR
483RD YR22—UNR—
CHANCE MORROWWRRET
464TH YR7468★3+30
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY PINNACEDBTRUE FR
524TH YR3964★3—
KAMRON CHAMBLEDBRET
522ND YR36—UNR—
STONE PERKINSDBTRUE FR
521ST YR3058★3—
CHRIS JACKSONDBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
524TH YR4278★3—
QUENTAVIUS SCANDRETTDBTRUE FR
484TH YR9928★3+37
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.0
45.4
— OFFENSE
54.2
59.8
— DEFENSE
55.9
31.0
SP+ OVERALL
-13.9
-21.3
FPI
-16.6
-21.6
ELO
1288
1081
TALENT
549
564
PRODUCTION
15
4
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−2
+14
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
OFF EFFICIENCY
0
11
DEF EFFICIENCY
53
6
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
71
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
17
10
FINISHING DRIVES
71
23
FIELD POSITION
91
54
TURNOVER MARGIN
30
64
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
PASS RATE
56.4%
53.0%
PACE
26.5s
29.8s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
15%
17%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.3%
50.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.6%
58.7%
PLAYS / GAME
68.0
60.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
7.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BUF, ORANGE = BALL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE