SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›TTU @ OKST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS TECH
OKLAHOMA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BOONE PICKENS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#13AP
17FPI
TTUB12TEXAS TECH
3-0
80
60
95
53%
68
73
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
50FPI
OKSTB12OKLAHOMA STATE
2-1
53
22
50
0%
99
59
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TTU63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
38
PROE
83
TEMPO
68
EXPLOSIVE38p
38
PROE83p
83
TEMPO68p
68
OKST45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
12
PROE
25
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE12p
12
PROE25p
25
TEMPO99p
99
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TTURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.5
TEXAS TECH won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OKSTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.4-10.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-19.2
OKLAHOMA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS TECHOKLAHOMA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB76%Behren MortonDRAFTED · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitch GriffisPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB59%Jacob RodriguezDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid BaileyDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRomello HeightDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL58%Lee HunterDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE'Maurion BanksDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSkyler Gill-HowardDRAFTED · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE58%Reggie VirgilDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb DouglasDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohncarlos Miller IITE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB37%Cole WisniewskiDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDontae BalfourDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.J. McCartyDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL37%Davion CarterOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill JadosOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrendan Sorsby · PORTAL ★5 · CINCINNATIStephen Cannon · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBCorey Platt Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONAustin Romaine · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATECord Nolan · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLMateen Ibirogba · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTAdam Trick · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMI (OH)LaDamion Guyton · SIGNEE ★53 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMalcolm Simmons · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNChase Campbell · SIGNEE ★4Matt Ludwig · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBDavin Martin · PORTAL ★3 · UTSAS'Vioarean Martin · SIGNEE ★4Donovan Webb · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLJordan Church · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLEFelix Ojo · SIGNEE ★4Bryce Gilmore · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.773 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.964 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.570 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5151899762 OF 6 GRADED
RB6565848173 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE63636252199 OF 19 GRADED
OL66668580215 OF 21 GRADED
DL7777744795 OF 9 GRADED
LB75756757219 OF 21 GRADED
DB68687092229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%77
RECRUITING CLASS#18 · 9/22 BC87
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+5 · 21 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OKSTERIC MORRISFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
PACE
9191
PASS RATE
8484
EXPLOSIVENESS
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
22
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TTUJOEY MCGUIRE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
PACE
9999
PASS RATE
7373
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTTU OFFENSEOKST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
85OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
51
RET
97
NATIONAL
88OF 136
RET
4
FULL DEFENSEOKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE
TTU QUARTERBACKSn=63% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TOMMY CASTELLANOSQBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
654TH YR——★3+23 2025
WILL HAMMONDQBRET
543RD YR5692★4+11
KIRK FRANCISQBPORTAL · TULSA
474TH YR7817★3-25
LLOYD JONES IIIQBRET
512ND YR—84★4—
STEPHEN CANNONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS85% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5435%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
404%0%
SECONDARYDB
4310%14%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
24OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
66
RET
80
DL
55OF 138
DL RET
35
LB
97OF 138
LB RET
4
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE
TTU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2120% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DANIEL SILLOLRET
464TH YR—76★3—
SHERIDAN WILSONOLRET
844TH YR—56★3+47 2025
HOWARD SAMPSONOLRET
844TH YR—89★3-12 2025
CONNOR CARTYOLRET
522ND YR—84★4—
D'ANTHIS UPSHAW JR.OLRET
503RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS78% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALIK CHARLESDERET
824TH YR58—UNR+11
ETHAN WESLOSKILBPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
684TH YR10045★3+21
JERRY LAWSONDTPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
624TH YR5485★3-9
SAADIQ CLEMENTSDTPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
613RD YR6545★3-14
KEVIYAN HUDDLESTONDEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
593RD YR6764★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
17OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
65
RET
81
DL
55OF 138
DL RET
35
LB
97OF 138
LB RET
4
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE
TTU RUNNING BACKSn=719% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
J'KOBY WILLIAMSRBRET
863RD YR8483★3+34
CAMERON DICKEYRBRET
623RD YR9181★3+9
QUINTEN JOYNERRBRET
494TH YR5892★4+32
ASHTON ROWDENRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—86★4—
MICHAEL HENDERSON IIIRBRET
382ND YR—63★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS79% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555435%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45404%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
63
RET
52
DB
115OF 138
DB RET
10
SECONDARYOKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE
TTU PASS CATCHERSn=1948% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM SIMMONSWRPORTAL · AUBURN
623RD YR8595★4+18
TERRANCE CARTER JR.TERET
624TH YR9642★3+48
JETT CARPENTERTEPORTAL · NEVADA
584TH YR6645★3+27
DONTE LEE JR.WRPORTAL · LIBERTY
574TH YR—64★3+31 2025
KENNY JOHNSONWRPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
524TH YR9964★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM90% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTIAN BODNARSPORTAL · LIBERTY
743RD YR8428★3+11
LADAINIAN FIELDSCBRET
682ND YR5569★3+41
QUINTON HAMMONDSSPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
633RD YR9164★3-17
MARKEITH WILLIAMSSPORTAL · MIAMI
544TH YR5845★3+32
EVAN JACKSONSPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
524TH YR9764★3-2
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
59.2
37.6
— OFFENSE
69.8
39.5
— DEFENSE
48.6
35.8
SP+ OVERALL
19.1
6.7
FPI
15.8
5.0
ELO
1841
1247
TALENT
768
673
PRODUCTION
95
72
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−19
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.27
0.08
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
OFF EFFICIENCY
64
3
DEF EFFICIENCY
98
22
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
77
19
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
85
11
FINISHING DRIVES
52
7
FIELD POSITION
0
97
TURNOVER MARGIN
99
6
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TTU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
PASS RATE
46.3%
50.6%
PACE
26.3s
22.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.2%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
66.1%
62.5%
PLAYS / GAME
68.3
79.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.5%
2.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TTU, ORANGE = OKST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE