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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›PUR @ IOWA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
PURDUE
IOWA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KINNICK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
70FPI
PURB1GPURDUE
1-1
61
70
56
48%
94
79
0.0
—
—
HOME
#21AP
32FPI
IOWAB1GIOWA
2-0
69
48
93
34%
68
78
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
PUR59CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
26
PROE
56
TEMPO
94
EXPLOSIVE26p
26
PROE56p
56
TEMPO94p
94
IOWA35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
21
PROE
16
TEMPO
68
EXPLOSIVE21p
21
PROE16p
16
TEMPO68p
68
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
PURRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-13.1
PURDUE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPURDUEIOWA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Nitro TugglePORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Jackson IIIWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ Horton Jr.WR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB72%Devin MockobeeRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi ThomasRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB64%Tahj Ra-ElDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTony GrimesDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles SlusherDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Mani PowellLB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex Sanford Jr.PORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL52%CJ Nunnally IVDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemeco KennedyDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamarrion HarklessDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL47%Bakyne ColyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen St. JohnOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHank PurvisOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB16%Malachi SingletonPORTAL · APP STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEAsaad Waseem · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICAr'Mari Towns · SIGNEE ★3Cooper McCutchan · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJerrick Gibson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASTravis Terrell Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEIzaiah Wright · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJaden Mangham · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANDon Saunders · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHRaderrion Daniels · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJojo Hayden · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISPARTIAL
DLElo Modozie · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIACurt Neal · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISRodney Lora · PORTAL ★3 · UCF3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLBoaz Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAJatavius Shivers · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINABrock Brownfield · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBCorin Berry · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PURDUE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.240 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.328 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.053 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464618252 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545601264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE474767422414 OF 24 GRADED
OL626256262010 OF 20 GRADED
DL595962402311 OF 23 GRADED
LB72724945106 OF 10 GRADED
DB55555419258 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%60
RECRUITING CLASS#55 · 0/21 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND-26 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 29 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
44
PASS RATE
1111
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
22
HAVOC
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PURBARRY ODOM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
PACE
4646
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPUR OFFENSEIOWA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
64
RET
82
NATIONAL
15OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSEIOWA DEFENSE
PUR QUARTERBACKSn=518% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYAN BROWNEQBRET
533RD YR7964★3-23
EVANS CHUBAQBRET
472ND YR—45★3—
BENNETT MEREDITHQBRET
484TH YR—64★3—
GARYT ODOMQBRET
351ST YR—37★3—
CORIN BERRYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5474%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
5173%46%
SECONDARYDB
5052%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
62
RET
26
DL
52OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
57OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE
PUR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2074% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOEY TANONAOLRET
654TH YR—85★3-3 2025
ETHAN TRENTOLRET
563RD YR—2★2+39 2025
RICO SCHRIEBEROLTRUE FR
521ST YR—55★3—
MASON VICARIOLRET
513RD YR—28★3—
JUDE MCCOSKEYOLRET
514TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE HAWTHORNEDLRET
584TH YR5992★4-28
DEVAN KENNEDYDLRET
523RD YR1966★3—
EMMANUEL OLAGBAJUDLPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA
524TH YR678★3—
BRICE STEVENSONDLPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
524TH YR617★3—
LUKE GAFFNEYDLRET
514TH YR33—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
105OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
45
RET
12
DL
52OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
57OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE
PUR RUNNING BACKSn=688% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JERRICK GIBSONRBPORTAL · TEXAS
512ND YR6785★3-7
FAME IJEBOIRBPORTAL · MINNESOTA
482ND YR6445★3-13
TRAVIS TERRELL JR.RBPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
463RD YR—64★3-58
ANTONIO HARRISRBRET
433RD YR55—UNR+18
IZAIAH WRIGHTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—79★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555474%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455173%46%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPURDUE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
82OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
47
RET
42
DB
73OF 138
DB RET
52
SECONDARYIOWA DEFENSE
PUR PASS CATCHERSn=2458% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASAAD WASEEMWRPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
573RD YR8164★3+16
LUCA PUCCINELLITERET
522ND YR—64★3—
TRA'MAR HARRISWRRET
502ND YR1478★3—
GEORGE BURHENNTERET
493RD YR5172★3+16
AR'MARI TOWNSTETRUE FR
491ST YR—77★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM48% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH LUTMERDBRET
854TH YR8858★3-9
JAYLEN WATSONDBRET
543RD YR—67★3-19 2025
DESHAUN LEEDBRET
524TH YR9863★3-31
RASHAD GODFREY JR.DBRET
513RD YR4169★3—
ANTHONY HAWKINSDBPORTAL · VILLANOVA
503RD YR664★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.1
54.5
— OFFENSE
54.5
59.6
— DEFENSE
41.7
49.4
SP+ OVERALL
-1.2
13.8
FPI
-0.4
9.9
ELO
1326
1845
TALENT
698
723
PRODUCTION
44
85
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+22
−11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
OFF EFFICIENCY
47
67
DEF EFFICIENCY
6
75
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
2
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
55
98
FINISHING DRIVES
17
80
FIELD POSITION
83
4
TURNOVER MARGIN
15
75
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
PASS RATE
52.3%
51.1%
PACE
23.2s
26.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.8%
56.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.2%
68.3%
PLAYS / GAME
77.5
68.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
3.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PUR, ORANGE = IOWA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE