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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›ILL @ UCLA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ILLINOIS
UCLA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 21:00 ET|ROSE BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP19|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
44FPI
ILLB1GILLINOIS
2-1
64
71
60
21%
8
82
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
40FPI
UCLAB1GUCLA
3-0
82
56
55
57%
51
93
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ILL34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
35
PROE
59
TEMPO
8
EXPLOSIVE35p
35
PROE59p
59
TEMPO8p
8
UCLA55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
51
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE51p
51
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCLARECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.3
UCLA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERILLINOISUCLA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Luke AltmyerQB · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB82%Gabe JacasDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan RosiekLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlec BryantLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL77%James Thompson Jr.DL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTomiwa DurojaiyePORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAngelo McCullomPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL75%Josh GeskyOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelvin PriestlyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh KreutzOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE56%Tanner ArkinTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHank BeattyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin BowickPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Miles ScottDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTorrie Cox Jr.DB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleb PattersonPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKatin Houser · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAREFILLED
LBRobert Edmonson · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEJacob Eberhart · SIGNEE ★4Cameron Thomas · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLParker Crim · SIGNEE ★3Tony Balanganayi · SIGNEE ★3Jaylen Stewart · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLChamp Smith · SIGNEE ★4Kai Pritchard · SIGNEE ★4Casey Thomann · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEKenyon Alston · SIGNEE ★3Davon Grant · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJames Finley IV · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHERN ILLINOISJames Finley · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHERN ILLINOISNick Hankins Jr. · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.939 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.755 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.229 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545485041 OF 4 GRADED
RB38387810093 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE63636484247 OF 24 GRADED
OL53535540216 OF 21 GRADED
DL525251481710 OF 17 GRADED
LB52525673157 OF 15 GRADED
DB616150642111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%52
RECRUITING CLASS#24 · 5/31 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+25 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCLABOB CHESNEYFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
7878
PASS RATE
1111
EXPLOSIVENESS
5353
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HAVOC
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ILLBRET BIELEMA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESILL OFFENSEUCLA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
78OF 136
RET
26
FULL DEFENSEUCLA DEFENSE
ILL QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KATIN HOUSERQBPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
574TH YR9485★3-2
CARSON BOYDQBRET
351ST YR—74★3—
MICHAEL CLAYTON IIQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—66★3—
DANE EISENMENGERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2919%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
3559%13%
SECONDARYDB
5837%30%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
53
RET
40
DL
126OF 138
DL RET
19
LB
115OF 138
LB RET
59
FRONT-7UCLA DEFENSE
ILL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2160% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON HENDERSONOLRET
684TH YR8568★3-11
MAIKA MATELAUOLTRUE FR
522ND YR2854★3—
TJ MCMILLENOLRET
523RD YR5162★3—
NATHAN KNAPIKOLRET
502ND YR5245★3—
JAKE RENFROOLPORTAL · WISCONSIN
504TH YR8364★3+43
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS65% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAHIR WESTDLPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
842ND YR7685★3+28
AIDEN GOBAIRADLPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
804TH YR7185★3+4
DAROLD DENGOHEDLPORTAL · RUTGERS
733RD YR6145★3-17
TRENT HENDRICKLBPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
624TH YR100—UNR+22
SAMMY OMOSIGHOLBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
564TH YR8195★4+29
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
38
RET
100
DL
126OF 138
DL RET
19
LB
115OF 138
LB RET
59
FRONT-7UCLA DEFENSE
ILL RUNNING BACKSn=90% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN LAUGHERYRBRET
534TH YR8576★3+9
JORDAN ANDERSONRBRET
524TH YR3355★3+33
CA'LIL VALENTINERBRET
443RD YR8486★4-25
JAVARI BARNETTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—78★3—
MURPHY CLEMENTRBRET
372ND YR—9★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552919%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453559%13%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
24OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
63
RET
84
DB
37OF 138
DB RET
37
SECONDARYUCLA DEFENSE
ILL PASS CATCHERSn=2416% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVIN STOFFELTERET
613RD YR2945★3—
HUDSON CLEMENTWRRET
584TH YR9864★3+31
COLLIN DIXONWRRET
563RD YR9172★3+12
KADEN FEAGINTERET
514TH YR6586★4+17
BRAYDEN TRIMBLEWRRET
481ST YR2083★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TA'SHAWN JAMESDBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
783RD YR8164★3+27
SCOOTER JACKSONDBRET
694TH YR7264★3-5
RODRICK PLEASANTDBRET
653RD YR8178★3-3
OSIRIS GILBERTDBPORTAL · UCONN
622ND YR5745★3+5
TAO JOHNSONDBPORTAL · UTAH
524TH YR10078★3+38
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.3
49.5
— OFFENSE
48.8
61.6
— DEFENSE
35.9
37.4
SP+ OVERALL
7.2
9.1
FPI
6.0
7.4
ELO
1587
1502
TALENT
704
774
PRODUCTION
80
67
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−28
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.24
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
OFF EFFICIENCY
89
40
DEF EFFICIENCY
11
1
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
17
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
90
FINISHING DRIVES
89
11
FIELD POSITION
30
94
TURNOVER MARGIN
41
19
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
PASS RATE
49.7%
40.8%
PACE
32.3s
27.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
55.7%
68.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.4%
66.7%
PLAYS / GAME
55.7
65.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ILL, ORANGE = UCLA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE