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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›BGSU @ TOL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BOWLING GREEN
TOLEDO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 19:30 ET|GLASS BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
135FPI
BGSUMACBOWLING GREEN
0-2
20
5
38
-6%
11
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
76FPI
TOLMACTOLEDO
1-1
16
34
87
66%
21
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BGSU7CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
4
PROE
7
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE4p
4
PROE7p
7
TEMPO11p
11
TOL64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
100
PROE
71
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE100p
100
PROE71p
71
TEMPO21p
21
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BGSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.8
BOWLING GREEN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TOLRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.4
TOLEDO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOWLING GREENTOLEDO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL84%Tunde FatukasiOT · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate PabstOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex PadgettC · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB76%Drew PyneQB · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLucian Anderson IIIPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBaron MayQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB72%Cameron PettawayPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaderris RobertsPORTAL · DELAWARE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMar'Kel PorterRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB69%Gideon ESPN LampronPORTAL · COLORADO · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaden MarshallLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL67%David AfoghoPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan Branch-HaynesDT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDierre KellyDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Jyrin JohnsonTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob HarrisPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRJ Garcia IIWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%MJ CannonPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McClendonCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius LorfilsS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLTravis Robertson · SIGNEE ★3Pete Pendergest · SIGNEE ★3Maddux Murphy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAustin Novosad · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONJarin Mock · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBKe'Marion Baldwin · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLESTON SOUTHERNTristin Blackmon · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBKingston Seals · SIGNEE ★3Caden Carter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJohn Baker IV · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOElijah Durham-Smith · SIGNEE ★3Trent Merrell · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEKentrell White · SIGNEE ★3Maddox Hunstad · SIGNEE ★3Derron Gray Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBArmahn Hale · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEChris Newell Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Julian Holt · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOWLING GREEN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.630 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.230 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.635 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3535—061 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949388573 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3939361222CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL212117416CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL46463352185 OF 18 GRADED
LB54542731113 OF 11 GRADED
DB40403080175 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%16
RECRUITING CLASS#75 · 0/27 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND+25 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 15 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TOLMIKE JACOBSFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BGSUEDDIE GEORGE2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
PACE
1313
PASS RATE
66
EXPLOSIVENESS
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HAVOC
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBGSU OFFENSETOL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOWLING GREEN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
125OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
35
RET
0
NATIONAL
25OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSETOLEDO DEFENSE
BGSU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAY KASTANTINQBTRUE FR
523RD YR——UNR+46
AUSTIN NOVOSADQBPORTAL · OREGON
473RD YR—64★3—
HUNTER NAJMQBRET
442ND YR—2★3-3 2025
JARIN MOCKQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—69★3—
DYLAN DREASKYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—34★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS81% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6341%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5745%0%
SECONDARYDB
500%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOWLING GREEN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
137OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
21
RET
4
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
35OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE
BGSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1696% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRODY BOLYNCRET
493RD YR—21★3—
ALEXIS SANCHEZGRET
504TH YR—6★2—
ALEX HARRISOTRET
482ND YR—11★2—
JAMES THOMAS JR.GRET
453RD YR—18★3-48 2025
ETHAN KRAATZOTRET
381ST YR—23★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH JOHNSONDEPORTAL · UAB
582ND YR4617★3—
JULIAN FOXLBTRUE FR
523RD YR20—UNR—
ANDREW ZOCKDEPORTAL · MERCER
523RD YR1645★3—
ISAAC ZAYLBRET
512ND YR37—UNR—
WAYNE PEART IIDLRET
492ND YR651★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOWLING GREEN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
84OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
49
RET
85
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
35OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE
BGSU RUNNING BACKSn=715% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AUSTYN DENDYRBRET
492ND YR6628★3-33
KE'MARION BALDWINRBPORTAL · CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
493RD YR2145★3-61
LEO KEMPFBRET
474TH YR——UNR—
NAKAI AMACHREERBRET
472ND YR1857★3-62
TRISTIN BLACKMONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—46★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS57% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556341%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455745%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOWLING GREEN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
39
RET
12
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
0
SECONDARYTOLEDO DEFENSE
BGSU PASS CATCHERSn=2288% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH SCOBYTERET
512ND YR1149★3-16
ELI JACON-DUFFYTERET
492ND YR2622★3—
TREY JOHNSONWRRET
484TH YR3745★3-61
WINN SHARPWRRET
462ND YR4127★3—
BRENNAN RIDLEYWRRET
453RD YR3645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM100% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM JONESCBPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
523RD YR1717★3—
ISRAEL PETITECBTRUE FR
522ND YR17—★2—
MO CONTEHSTRUE FR
524TH YR1617★3—
TYRELL RUSSELLCBRET
491ST YR1457★3—
HYAJAH MILLERCBRET
492ND YR—53★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
49.2
45.0
— OFFENSE
57.3
45.5
— DEFENSE
41.0
44.4
SP+ OVERALL
-17.5
-4.9
FPI
-19.2
-1.6
ELO
1227
1576
TALENT
568
556
PRODUCTION
15
27
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−6
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
OFF EFFICIENCY
7
69
DEF EFFICIENCY
60
97
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
50
36
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
25
92
FINISHING DRIVES
23
33
FIELD POSITION
20
17
TURNOVER MARGIN
39
62
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
PASS RATE
42.2%
45.7%
PACE
33.0s
31.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.8%
56.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
51.5%
48.8%
PLAYS / GAME
54.5
58.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.8%
5.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BGSU, ORANGE = TOL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE