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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›CMU @ BUF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
BUFFALO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
WED 00:00 ET|UB STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
134FPI
CMUMACCENTRAL MICHIGAN
1-1
9
11
24
54%
7
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
122FPI
BUFMACBUFFALO
1-1
13
6
32
-1%
87
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CMU23CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
4
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE4p
4
TEMPO7p
7
BUF79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
79
PROE
72
TEMPO
87
EXPLOSIVE79p
79
PROE72p
72
TEMPO87p
87
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CMURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
BUFFALO won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCENTRAL MICHIGANBUFFALO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB88%Jordan KwiatkowskiLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDakota CochranLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLawai'a BrownLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB82%Joe LabasQB · 81% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB80%Kalen CarrollPORTAL · TCU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenden DeasfernandesDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb SpannDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Nahree BigginsRB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey CornistPORTAL · UCONN · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%DeCorion TemplePORTAL · OREGON STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHenry DrydenTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyson DavisWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL55%Michael HeldmanDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan DeckerDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeshawn HaydenPORTAL · EASTERN KENTUCKY · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL23%Apisa PoumeleOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan BlumOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBElijah Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3Leon Howard Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBJustin Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGTrav Moore · SIGNEE ★3Colton Benaitis · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKobe Hendricks · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEZack Wagner · SIGNEE ★3Avin Robinson · SIGNEE ★3DaShon Febres · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLCollin Stare · SIGNEE ★3Matthew Sexton · SIGNEE ★3Isaac Hutchinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLNic DiSanto · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISWyatt Graffin · SIGNEE ★3Jack Nolan · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.433 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.572 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.116 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB36362910062 OF 6 GRADED
RB4848372294 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE3939553319CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL323235021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL44442058178 OF 17 GRADED
LB4242218106 OF 10 GRADED
DB464630282210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#95 · 0/30 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 12 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BUFPETE LEMBO3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
PACE
7171
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HAVOC
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CMUMATT DRINKALL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
PACE
88
PASS RATE
22
EXPLOSIVENESS
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HAVOC
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCMU OFFENSEBUF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
122OF 138
TAL
29
PERF
36
RET
100
NATIONAL
99OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSEBUFFALO DEFENSE
CMU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANGEL FLORESQBRET
624TH YR3628★3+13
MARCUS BEAMONQBRET
494TH YR——UNR—
JADYN GLASSERQBRET
421ST YR4629★3-49
GENO SEETSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—27★3—
DANIEL GOMEZQBRET
351ST YR—22★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4967%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4750%0%
SECONDARYDB
5096%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
32
RET
0
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE
CMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACOB RUSSELLOLRET
513RD YR—9★3-29 2025
MATTHEW NEHFOLRET
493RD YR—33★3+45 2025
JACOB BOOTHOLRET
483RD YR—59★3-39 2025
BRADY PLOUCHAOLRET
484TH YR—40★3+21 2025
JOHN IANNUZZIOLRET
484TH YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
REX STINCHCOMBDLRET
522ND YR—34★3—
STANTAVIOUS SMITHDTPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M
524TH YR1628★3—
JORDAN OWENSLBRET
524TH YR——UNR—
CHRISTOPHER CLIMESDLRET
522ND YR1747★3—
SEDRICK VESSAHEDGEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA (PA)
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
93OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
48
RET
22
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE
CMU RUNNING BACKSn=978% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BROCK TOWNSENDRBRET
512ND YR6137★3+25
RUSTY VANWETZINGA IVFBRET
493RD YR—5★3—
VAUGHN BLUERBPORTAL · LIBERTY
483RD YR65—UNR+12
NICK WOODFORDRBTRUE FR
352ND YR5—UNR—
JAYDEN CLERVEAUXRBPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
354TH YR5—UNR—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554967%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454750%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
39
RET
33
DB
80OF 138
DB RET
96
SECONDARYBUFFALO DEFENSE
CMU PASS CATCHERSn=1967% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANGSTON LEWISWRRET
614TH YR7545★3+32
NASIR WILLIAMSWRRET
522ND YR2725★3—
JUSTIN RUFFIN JR.WRRET
502ND YR32—UNR—
TAYTE VANDERLEESTWRRET
473RD YR——UNR—
BRAYLEN NAVESWRRET
351ST YR—34★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM4% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MILES GREERSRET
684TH YR78—UNR+34
KEONTEZ BRADLEYCBRET
594TH YR7317★3-1
RONNELL DAVISSRET
513RD YR3545★3—
JOHN KEOUGHSRET
483RD YR3726★3—
OLIVER BRIDGESCBRET
464TH YR—17★3-29 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.6
55.0
— OFFENSE
43.9
54.2
— DEFENSE
35.3
55.9
SP+ OVERALL
-16.9
-13.9
FPI
-18.6
-14.5
ELO
1253
1341
TALENT
540
549
PRODUCTION
14
19
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−11
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
OFF EFFICIENCY
33
22
DEF EFFICIENCY
62
72
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
13
17
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
84
56
FINISHING DRIVES
32
33
FIELD POSITION
52
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
83
16
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
PASS RATE
36.4%
62.1%
PACE
33.6s
24.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
73.9%
46.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
55.3%
75.9%
PLAYS / GAME
53.5
72.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.7%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CMU, ORANGE = BUF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE