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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›MSST @ MISS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MISSISSIPPI STATE
OLE MISS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 12:00 ET|VAUGHT-HEMINGWAY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
22FPI
MSSTSECMISSISSIPPI STATE
3-0
86
79
63
34%
72
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#8AP
13FPI
MISSSECOLE MISS
3-0
91
93
72
50%
72
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MSST58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
78
PROE
24
TEMPO
72
EXPLOSIVE78p
78
PROE24p
24
TEMPO72p
72
MISS61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
46
PROE
66
TEMPO
72
EXPLOSIVE46p
46
PROE66p
66
TEMPO72p
72
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MISSRECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.2
OLE MISS won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSISSIPPI STATEOLE MISS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB78%Blake ShapenQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB68%Brylan LanierS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahron ManningS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAgo BrumfieldCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB59%Nic MitchellLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranden JenningsLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalick SyllaLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL59%Jacoby JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayvin JamesOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlbert Reese IVOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Seydou TraoreDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenen ThompsonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan MosleyWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Davon BoothRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Kedrick Bingley-JonesPORTAL · ALABAMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRed HibblerDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeonte AndersonDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrodie McWhorter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBralan Womack · SIGNEE ★4Terrell Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Camron Brown · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLTyler Miller · PORTAL ★3 · LSUDalton Toothman · SIGNEE ★3Leon Noil Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEMarquis Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIZayion Cotton · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Cration · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCooper Crosby · SIGNEE ★3Jaeden Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDealyn Evans · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MAmaree Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJayson Jenkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSISSIPPI STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.950 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.250 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.555 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252958052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757807865 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626262522111 OF 21 GRADED
OL555565252213 OF 22 GRADED
DL434377551912 OF 19 GRADED
LB373782100117 OF 11 GRADED
DB585864272513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE86th86
BLUE-CHIP RATIO38%87
RECRUITING CLASS#23 · 4/28 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 27 IN / 40 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MISSPETE GOLDINGFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSSTJEFF LEBBY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
6161
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
33
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSST OFFENSEMISS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
95
PERF
52
RET
80
NATIONAL
39OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSEOLE MISS DEFENSE
MSST QUARTERBACKSn=520% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAMARIO TAYLORQBRET
682ND YR5395★4+21
PARKER PUCKETTQBRET
501ST YR17—UNR—
AJ SWANNQBPORTAL · APP STATE
454TH YR—64★3-19 2025
JADEN RASHADAQBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
403RD YR—45★3-41 2025
BRODIE MCWHORTERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS56% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
8153%59%
LINEBACKERSLB
6328%23%
SECONDARYDB
7145%58%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
54OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
55
RET
25
DL
4OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
19OF 138
LB RET
28
FRONT-7OLE MISS DEFENSE
MSST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2275% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CANON BOONEOLRET
544TH YR—61★3+36 2025
JAKHEEM SHUMPERT-PERKINSOLRET
523RD YR——UNR—
SAQUON MILESOLRET
523RD YR——UNR—
TJ LOCKHARTOLRET
522ND YR—72★3—
BLAKE STEENOLRET
503RD YR—78★3-27 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAM FRANKLINDERET
903RD YR8597★4+21
WILL ECHOLESDTRET
853RD YR8895★4-4
BLAKE PURCHASEDEPORTAL · OREGON
763RD YR7598★4+27
SUNTARINE PERKINSLBRET
744TH YR9999★50 2025
KEATON THOMASLBPORTAL · BAYLOR
724TH YR9878★3+19
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
57
RET
78
DL
4OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
19OF 138
LB RET
28
FRONT-7OLE MISS DEFENSE
MSST RUNNING BACKSn=622% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FLUFF BOTHWELLRBRET
573RD YR9295★4+26
XAVIER GAYTENRBRET
543RD YR4684★4+34
J.J. HILLRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1874★3—
KOLIN WILSONRBRET
511ST YR2259★3+35
COOPER CROSBYRBTRUE FR
471ST YR1179★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558153%59%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456328%23%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
62
RET
52
DB
5OF 138
DB RET
45
SECONDARYOLE MISS DEFENSE
MSST PASS CATCHERSn=2148% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY EVANS IIIWRRET
584TH YR9364★3+3
MATT MAYFIELDWRTRUE FR
523RD YR—74★3—
SANFRISCO MAGEEWRRET
512ND YR3374★3—
RILEY WILLIAMSTEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
503RD YR5545★3+6
SAM WESTTERET
503RD YR3828★3+9
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHARIF DENSONSPORTAL · FLORIDA
584TH YR—78★3+16 2025
LADARIAN CLARDYSRET
522ND YR3190★4—
JAYLON BRAXTONCBRET
513RD YR8985★3-11
CEDRICK BEAVERSCBRET
494TH YR——UNR—
JALYN CRAWFORDCBTRUE FR
473RD YR9298★4+2
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.9
52.2
— OFFENSE
67.7
50.3
— DEFENSE
36.0
54.1
SP+ OVERALL
10.0
15.2
FPI
14.1
17.7
ELO
1663
1859
TALENT
805
886
PRODUCTION
63
89
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+14
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.38
0.54
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
OFF EFFICIENCY
46
92
DEF EFFICIENCY
32
72
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
67
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
47
31
FINISHING DRIVES
81
91
FIELD POSITION
52
74
TURNOVER MARGIN
49
39
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
PASS RATE
45.6%
58.7%
PACE
26.2s
26.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.5%
44.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
46.0%
67.2%
PLAYS / GAME
68.7
68.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.4%
2.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSST, ORANGE = MISS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE