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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›NEB @ IOWA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEBRASKA
IOWA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
FRI 12:00 ET|KINNICK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
21FPI
NEBB1GNEBRASKA
3-0
85
73
73
46%
79
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#18AP
28FPI
IOWAB1GIOWA
3-0
69
48
93
34%
64
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NEB82CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
70
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE70p
70
TEMPO79p
79
IOWA40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
16
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE16p
16
TEMPO64p
64
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
NEBRECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs2.9-0.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+34.7
NEBRASKA won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IOWARECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs3.0-0.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+32.7
IOWA won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 3.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEBRASKAIOWA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB74%Emmett JohnsonDRAFTED · 73% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB67%Dylan RaiolaPORTAL · OREGON · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB61%Javin WrightLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDasan McCulloughLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Watson-TrentLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Henry LutovskyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRocco SpindlerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTurner CorcoranOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Ceyair WrightDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeShon SingletonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Buford Jr.DB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL33%Elijah JeudyDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeona DavisPORTAL · MIAMI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE24%Dane KeyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHeinrich HaarbergTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJamal Rule · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAnthony Colandrea · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVDaniel Kaelin · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAREFILLED
LBOwen Chambliss · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEWill Hawthorne · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEJase Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrendan Black · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATETree Babalade · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAPaul Mubenga · PORTAL ★3 · LSU3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDwayne McDougle · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEJasin Shiggs · PORTAL ★3 · TOWSONVictor Evans III · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLAnthony Jones · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJahsear Whittington · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHOwen Stoudmire · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEKwazi Gilmer · PORTAL ★3 · UCLALuke Sorensen · SIGNEE ★3Nalin Scott · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEBRASKA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.987 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.974 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.991 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414178041 OF 4 GRADED
RB7171796254 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE555582802111 OF 21 GRADED
OL55557858207 OF 20 GRADED
DL494979502117 OF 21 GRADED
LB52526961145 OF 14 GRADED
DB626268722111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%82
RECRUITING CLASS#88 · 3/12 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND-70 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
PACE
1212
PASS RATE
1010
EXPLOSIVENESS
99
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
22
HAVOC
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEBMATT RHULE4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
3838
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HAVOC
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEB OFFENSEIOWA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
41
RET
0
NATIONAL
10OF 136
RET
64
FULL DEFENSEIOWA DEFENSE
NEB QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY COLANDREAQBPORTAL · UNLV
764TH YR9878★3+11
TJ LATEEFQBRET
502ND YR6091★4-8
DANIEL KAELINQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
473RD YR4645★3-41
BODE SOUKUPQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5474%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
5173%46%
SECONDARYDB
5052%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
55
RET
58
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE
NEB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2042% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTIN EVANSOLRET
774TH YR9743★3+32
BRENDAN BLACKOLPORTAL · IOWA STATE
654TH YR9897★4+0
GUNNAR GOTTULAOLRET
554TH YR8078★3-34
TREE BABALADEOLPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
554TH YR8778★3-13
TYLER KNAAKOLRET
524TH YR5828★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE HAWTHORNEDLRET
584TH YR6592★4-28
DEVAN KENNEDYDLRET
523RD YR3066★3—
EMMANUEL OLAGBAJUDLPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA
524TH YR1778★3—
BRICE STEVENSONDLPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
524TH YR1717★3—
LUKE GAFFNEYDLRET
514TH YR43—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
79
PERF
71
RET
62
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE
NEB RUNNING BACKSn=538% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH MOZEERBRET
562ND YR4889★4+33
MEKHI NELSONRBRET
543RD YR5178★3+15
JAMAL RULERBTRUE FR
521ST YR3777★3+38
KWINTEN IVESRBRET
514TH YR4567★3+27
CONOR BOOTHRBRET
492ND YR1177★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555474%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455173%46%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
55
RET
80
DB
73OF 138
DB RET
52
SECONDARYIOWA DEFENSE
NEB PASS CATCHERSn=2120% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE LINDENMEYERTERET
584TH YR82—UNR+15
CARTER NELSONTERET
563RD YR5798★4-16
NYZIAH HUNTERWRRET
534TH YR9792★4+8
JACORY BARNEY JR.WRRET
513RD YR9685★4-1
JEREMIAH JONESWRRET
502ND YR287★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM48% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH LUTMERDBRET
854TH YR9058★3-7
JAYLEN WATSONDBRET
543RD YR6367★3-19
DESHAUN LEEDBRET
524TH YR9863★3-30
RASHAD GODFREY JR.DBRET
513RD YR5169★3—
ANTHONY HAWKINSDBPORTAL · VILLANOVA
503RD YR3164★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.4
53.8
— OFFENSE
60.7
58.3
— DEFENSE
44.0
49.4
SP+ OVERALL
13.0
13.8
FPI
14.2
12.1
ELO
1715
1841
TALENT
787
723
PRODUCTION
81
82
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
−13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.31
0.20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
OFF EFFICIENCY
85
66
DEF EFFICIENCY
82
100
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
42
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
16
92
FINISHING DRIVES
95
32
FIELD POSITION
58
15
TURNOVER MARGIN
61
84
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
PASS RATE
44.3%
47.0%
PACE
25.7s
26.7s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
38%
14%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.6%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.2%
60.7%
PLAYS / GAME
70.0
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.9%
4.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEB, ORANGE = IOWA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE