SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›TCU @ TTU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TCU
TEXAS TECH
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 20:00 ET|JONES AT&T STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
41FPI
TCUB12TCU
1-1
72
84
64
22%
65
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#13AP
16FPI
TTUB12TEXAS TECH
2-0
80
60
95
53%
87
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TCU63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
43
PROE
81
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE43p
43
PROE81p
81
TEMPO65p
65
TTU65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
25
PROE
83
TEMPO
87
EXPLOSIVE25p
25
PROE83p
83
TEMPO87p
87
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TTURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.5
TEXAS TECH won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTCUTEXAS TECH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Josh HooverPORTAL · INDIANA · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKen SealsQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB86%Kaleb Elarms-OrrDRAFTED · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNamdi ObiazorDRAFTED · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE64%Eric McAlisterWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ RogersTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase CurtisTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Coltin DeeryOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarson BrunoOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRemington StricklandOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Bud ClarkDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChanning CanadaCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin JordanS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB53%Kevorian BarnesRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent BattleRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate PalmerPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL31%Devean DealEDGE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor LingrenDT · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJaden Craig · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARDJack Daulton · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBMichael Short · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHNoriel Dominguez · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJames Scott · SIGNEE ★3Khamill Pruitt · SIGNEE ★3Cooper Reid · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLNoah McKinney · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEVincent Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Devan Robison · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBTeon Parks · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJason Bradford · SIGNEE ★4Zach Taylor · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBLandon Walker · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINESAce Martin · SIGNEE ★3G'Ivori Graham · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLCheta Ofili · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHCarter Buck · SIGNEE ★4Jesse Ford · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TCU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.956 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.938 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.267 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545478051 OF 5 GRADED
RB63638110082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE666671562110 OF 21 GRADED
OL53537250207 OF 20 GRADED
DL41416774218 OF 21 GRADED
LB46467464125 OF 12 GRADED
DB53536988219 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE72nd72
BLUE-CHIP RATIO22%72
RECRUITING CLASS#47 · 4/22 BC65
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 12 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TTUJOEY MCGUIRE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
PACE
9999
PASS RATE
7373
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TCUSONNY DYKES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
7878
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTCU OFFENSETTU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTCU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
1OF 136
RET
16
FULL DEFENSETEXAS TECH DEFENSE
TCU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADEN CRAIGQBPORTAL · HARVARD
474TH YR3278★3+1
ADAM SCHOBELQBRET
472ND YR—92★4—
JACK DAULTONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—73★3—
JAYDEN MAPLESQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—31★3—
DAVID POTTERQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS26% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7747%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
7557%5%
SECONDARYDB
6892%27%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTCU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
53
RET
50
DL
6OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
7OF 138
LB RET
57
FRONT-7TEXAS TECH DEFENSE
TCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2050% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN TAYLOR-WHITFIELDOLRET
834TH YR9570★30
JAHEIM BUCHANONOLPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
734TH YR9445★3+50
CADE BENNETTOLRET
654TH YR9685★3+41
RYAN HUGHESOLRET
533RD YR—65★3-22 2025
COOPER POWERSOLRET
524TH YR6867★3+44
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS49% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
A.J. HOLMES JR.DLRET
884TH YR9967★3+5
ADAM TRICKLBPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
724TH YR9592★4+15
AUSTIN ROMAINELBPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
664TH YR9778★3+17
JAYDEN COFIELDDLRET
624TH YR7972★3-32
BRYCE BUTLERDLPORTAL · WASHINGTON
584TH YR6364★3+15
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTCU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
63
RET
100
DL
6OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
7OF 138
LB RET
57
FRONT-7TEXAS TECH DEFENSE
TCU RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMY PAYNERBRET
593RD YR8386★4+1
JON DENMANRBRET
492ND YR5165★3-49
LANDON WALKERRBPORTAL · COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES
374TH YR—45★3—
AMANTE MARTINRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—84★3—
G'IVORI GRAHAMRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—77★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557747%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457557%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETCU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
18OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
66
RET
56
DB
7OF 138
DB RET
92
SECONDARYTEXAS TECH DEFENSE
TCU PASS CATCHERSn=2144% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ED SMALLWRRET
552ND YR5184★4+22
KARI ASHLEYTETRUE FR
524TH YR2455★3—
JEREMY SCOTTWRPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
523RD YR6745★3+26
JACOBE HAYESWRRET
492ND YR2451★3—
KA'MORREUN PIMPTONTERET
464TH YR4094★4+9
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM8% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRICE POLLOCKCBRET
544TH YR9992★4-8
DAVIN MARTINCBPORTAL · UTSA
544TH YR—78★3-13 2025
MARCUS RAMON-EDWARDSSRET
524TH YR2864★3—
PEYTON MORGANSRET
483RD YR4492★4—
MALIK ESQUERRASRET
473RD YR4981★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.2
59.2
— OFFENSE
42.3
69.8
— DEFENSE
42.2
48.6
SP+ OVERALL
11.3
19.1
FPI
6.3
16.1
ELO
1598
1845
TALENT
731
768
PRODUCTION
77
95
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+5
−19
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.22
0.27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
OFF EFFICIENCY
68
64
DEF EFFICIENCY
63
98
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
63
77
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
35
85
FINISHING DRIVES
69
52
FIELD POSITION
35
0
TURNOVER MARGIN
28
99
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
PASS RATE
49.3%
45.5%
PACE
26.5s
24.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
55.6%
62.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.2%
62.2%
PLAYS / GAME
68.0
72.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.4%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TCU, ORANGE = TTU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE