SAT 16:00 ET|KINNICK STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP54|O/U39.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
4-8
18
38
34
26%
25
28
8.0
+1300
+23.5
HOME
38
8-5
72
41
78
55%
4
53
31.5
-3000
-23.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALTROY21—IOWA38
CLOSED IOWA -23.5TOTAL 39.5TROY COVERED · 59 POINTS · OVER
TROY
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
IOWA
TROY
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
IOWA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL39.5
SPREADIOWA -23.5
IMPLIED — TROY8.0
IMPLIED — IOWA31.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
34FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TROYRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.4-6.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.4
TROY won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.9
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTROYIOWA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB98%Reddy StewardCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDell PettusS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONO'shai FletcherCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB96%Gunnar WatsonQB · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB77%Kimani VidalDRAFTED · 69% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAsa MartinRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL65%Buddha JonesDT · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. JacksonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ PierceDT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL63%Derrick GrahamPORTAL · TULANE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant BettsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake AustinPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB61%Richard JibunorLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon SolomonDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden McDonaldPORTAL · UCONN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE52%Clayton OllendieckTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJabre BarberPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeshon StoudemireWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBTrent Henry · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLINGDevin Lafayette · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOISCecil Powell · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBCaleb McCreary · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBGerald Green · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAPARTIAL
DLJah-Mal Williams · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIKevin Norwood · SIGNEE ★3Trashun Griffin · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLBrian Senter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBrendan Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBJordan Perry · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEKam Weaver · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEMarquez Dortch · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAKevin Beckham · SIGNEE ★3Chad Barham · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TROY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.96 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.449 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
21.50 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353382053 OF 5 GRADED
RB6767726365 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE464657702414 OF 24 GRADED
OL363686341910 OF 19 GRADED
DL363648532015 OF 20 GRADED
LB50502762119 OF 11 GRADED
DB353538382614 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%32
RECRUITING CLASS#89 · 0/21 BC34
CLASS RANK TREND+41 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 10 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TROYGERAD PARKERFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTROY OFFENSEIOWA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTROY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEIOWA DEFENSE TROY QUARTERBACKSn=580% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS3% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTROY OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE TROY OFFENSIVE LINEn=1966% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-7n=39 · 2 ROOMS1% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTROY OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE TROY RUNNING BACKSn=637% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 39 PLAYERS1% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554798%14%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4538100%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETROY OFFENSESECONDARYIOWA DEFENSE TROY PASS CATCHERSn=2430% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM4% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−13
−18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.2%
73.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS56.9%
64.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TROY, ORANGE = IOWA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE