SAT 20:00 ET|JONES AT&T STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U60.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
5-7
57
74
71
31%
69
83
28.5
+130
+3.0
HOME
44
8-5
73
62
34
56%
100
63
31.5
-155
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCIN41—TTU44
CLOSED TTU -3.0TOTAL 60.0SPREAD PUSHED · 85 POINTS · OVER
CIN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TTU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL60.0
SPREADTTU -3.0
IMPLIED — CIN28.5
IMPLIED — TTU31.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
66FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 52 games because 1 carries no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
CINRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.6
CINCINNATI won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TTURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.1
TEXAS TECH won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCINCINNATITEXAS TECH2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB90%Emory JonesQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE69%Chamon MetayerPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden SmithWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDee WigginsWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB64%Deshawn PacePORTAL · UCF · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel GrzesiakLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorian JonesPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB56%Taj WardDB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryon ThreatsPORTAL · UCF · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin HarrisPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%Jowon BriggsDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik VannDE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin WodtlyPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB44%Myles MontgomeryPORTAL · UCF · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan MontgomeryRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL4%Trevor RadosevichOL · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrendan Sorsby · PORTAL ★4 · INDIANASamaj Jones · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TETyrin Smith · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPTony Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICJoe Royer · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJake Golday · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL ARKANSASMontay Weedon · SIGNEE ★3Simeon Coleman · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMehki Miller · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEDerrick Canteen · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHLogan Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXAS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJared Bartlett · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIADarian Varner · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINREFILLED
RBEvan Pryor · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEChance Williams · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLINGREFILLED
OLXavier Lozowicki · PORTAL ★3 · MAINEJake Wheelock · SIGNEE ★3Aiden Pastoriza · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CINCINNATI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.736 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
62.477 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.214 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB696999262 OF 6 GRADED
RB6464846375 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE545465252014 OF 20 GRADED
OL666658971612 OF 16 GRADED
DL464650571913 OF 19 GRADED
LB57577347169 OF 16 GRADED
DB565663292015 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE57th57
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%57
RECRUITING CLASS#51 · 1/24 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 24 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TTUJOEY MCGUIRE3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCIN OFFENSETTU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCINCINNATI OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS TECH DEFENSE CIN QUARTERBACKSn=698% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCINCINNATI OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS TECH DEFENSE CIN OFFENSIVE LINEn=163% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCINCINNATI OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS TECH DEFENSE CIN RUNNING BACKSn=737% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554767%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECINCINNATI OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS TECH DEFENSE CIN PASS CATCHERSn=2075% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+9
+12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.8%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.1%
73.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CIN, ORANGE = TTU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE