SAT 15:30 ET|UB STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
48
6-7
31
48
5
79%
16
5
25.3
-115
-1.0
HOME
41
9-4
9
5
23
14%
70
0
24.3
-105
+1.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWMU48—BUF41
CLOSED WMU -1.0TOTAL 49.5WMU COVERED · 89 POINTS · OVER
WMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BUF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADWMU -1.0
IMPLIED — WMU25.3
IMPLIED — BUF24.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
59FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT29 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 29 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
WMURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BUFRECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.1
BUFFALO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWESTERN MICHIGANBUFFALO2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB43%Treyson BourguetQB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack SalopekPORTAL · ELON · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE40%Austin HenceTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeroy ThomasWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJehlani GallowayWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL30%Marshawn KneelandDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua NoblesPORTAL · JACKSON STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB28%Keni-H LovelyCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony RomphfCB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL26%Michael ShanahanOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor CampbellOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB17%Nate NorrisLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB6%CJ HesterPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBroc Lowry · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAJD Davis II · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEBugs Mortimer · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROEJordin Parker · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEChris Toudle · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLPopeye Williams · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEAnterio Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · IOWARodney McGraw · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBArmani-Eli Adams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICNajiib Anderson · SIGNEE ★3Cameron Powell · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLConor Kenzinger · SIGNEE ★3Gavin Dabo · SIGNEE ★3Jeremy Schleicher · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBDomanick Moon · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEHuston Eubank · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WESTERN MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
74.297 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
72.391 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
75.496 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3838649852 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050447066 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE444430772115 OF 21 GRADED
OL414122851815 OF 18 GRADED
DL272727691813 OF 18 GRADED
LB28284996138 OF 13 GRADED
DB343434732213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%9
RECRUITING CLASS#71 · 0/25 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND+34 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 11 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BUFPETE LEMBOFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WMULANCE TAYLOR2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1010
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWMU OFFENSEBUF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWESTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBUFFALO DEFENSE WMU QUARTERBACKSn=52% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWESTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE WMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1815% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWESTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE WMU RUNNING BACKSn=630% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS38% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553637%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWESTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSESECONDARYBUFFALO DEFENSE WMU PASS CATCHERSn=2123% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+7
−29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.7%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.5%
57.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WMU, ORANGE = BUF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE