SAT 19:30 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U39.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
8-5
72
41
78
55%
4
44
23.3
-278
-7.0
HOME
32
5-7
71
53
47
30%
15
72
16.3
+225
+7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALIOWA20—MSU32
CLOSED IOWA -7.0TOTAL 39.5MSU COVERED · 52 POINTS · OVER
IOWA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MSU
IOWA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL39.5
SPREADIOWA -7.0
IMPLIED — IOWA23.3
IMPLIED — MSU16.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
37FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.9
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
MICHIGAN STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERIOWAMICHIGAN STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB71%Deacon HillPORTAL · UTAH TECH · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE52%Steven StilianosTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNico RagainiWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONErick AllDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL37%Logan LeeDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe EvansDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB15%Cooper DeJeanDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL14%Rusty FethOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
LB0%Tanner PollockLB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrendan Sullivan · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERNREFILLED
WR/TEJacob Gill · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERNGavin Hoffman · SIGNEE ★4Michael Burt · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLJoseph Anderson · SIGNEE ★4Chima Chineke · SIGNEE ★3Drew Campbell · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBRashad Godfrey Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Graham Eben · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLCade Borud · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTAWill Nolan · SIGNEE ★4Cody Fox · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
LBCam Buffington · SIGNEE ★4Derek Weisskopf · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · IOWA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
62.583 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.656 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
68.388 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252686153 OF 5 GRADED
RB646473100117 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE444464652816 OF 28 GRADED
OL535382992214 OF 22 GRADED
DL474780982112 OF 21 GRADED
LB383844100187 OF 18 GRADED
DB494969962012 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE72nd72
BLUE-CHIP RATIO17%66
RECRUITING CLASS#32 · 6/28 BC77
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 4 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUJONATHAN SMITHFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIOWA OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBIOWA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE IOWA QUARTERBACKSn=539% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLIOWA OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE IOWA OFFENSIVE LINEn=221% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBIOWA OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE IOWA RUNNING BACKSn=110% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555949%30%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455656%23%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEIOWA OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE IOWA PASS CATCHERSn=2835% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−18
+37
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS73.9%
57.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.2%
67.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IOWA, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE