SAT 15:30 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP42|O/U54.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
10-3
55
78
56
45%
18
50
15.8
+850
+22.5
HOME
38
13-1
96
94
84
36%
72
71
38.3
-1800
-22.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALILL9—ORE38
CLOSED ORE -22.5TOTAL 54.0ORE COVERED · 47 POINTS · UNDER
ILL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL54.0
SPREADORE -22.5
IMPLIED — ILL15.8
IMPLIED — ORE38.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
ILLRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.8
ILLINOIS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.2
OREGON won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERILLINOISOREGON2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL91%Jer'Zhan NewtonDRAFTED · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDenzel DaxonDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeith Randolph Jr.DL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB65%Reggie Love IIIPORTAL · PURDUE · 64% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE63%Tip ReimanDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WilliamsWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCasey WashingtonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB48%Tahveon NicholsonPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNicario HarperDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClayton BushDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL45%Julian PearlOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah AdamsDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordyn SlaughterOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB31%John PaddockQB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB12%Tarique BarnesLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLDennis Briggs Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEEnyce Sledge · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNEddie Tuerk · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBCa'Lil Valentine · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TECole Rusk · PORTAL ★4 · MURRAY STATEZakhari Franklin · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSCarson Goda · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT ANSELM1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBTerrance Brooks · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASTorrie Cox Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOVernon Woodward III · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJ.C. Davis · PORTAL ★4 · NEW MEXICOKevin Wigenton II · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMelvin Priestly · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLING3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBTrey Petty · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBEaston Baker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.568 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.380 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.154 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3838929962 OF 6 GRADED
RB5151838074 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE555561632715 OF 27 GRADED
OL606061601911 OF 19 GRADED
DL46465455129 OF 12 GRADED
LB434355911812 OF 18 GRADED
DB565644712218 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE55th55
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%50
RECRUITING CLASS#49 · 2/18 BC64
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 12 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ILLBRET BIELEMA4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESILL OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBILLINOIS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE ILL QUARTERBACKSn=61% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE ILL OFFENSIVE LINEn=1941% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE ILL RUNNING BACKSn=720% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557253%72%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455399%57%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEILLINOIS OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE ILL PASS CATCHERSn=2737% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−24
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.5%
58.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.3%
67.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.5%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ILL, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE