SAT 12:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/U47.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
25
8-5
68
41
91
55%
20
84
24.8
-142
-2.5
HOME
17
10-3
55
78
56
45%
18
36
22.3
+120
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMINN25—ILL17
CLOSED MINN -2.5TOTAL 47.0MINN COVERED · 42 POINTS · UNDER
MINN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ILL
MINN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ILL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=48
MARKET
TOTAL47.0
SPREADMINN -2.5
IMPLIED — MINN24.8
IMPLIED — ILL22.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
38FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 48-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
MINNRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.8
MINNESOTA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.8
ILLINOIS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMINNESOTAILLINOIS2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Athan KaliakmanisPORTAL · RUTGERS · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole KramerQB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE46%Brevyn Spann-FordTE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey Crooms Jr.WR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris Autman-BellWR · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB43%Tyler NubinDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre'Von JonesDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB37%Sean TylerRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce WilliamsRB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach EvansPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL27%Kyler BaughDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris CollinsDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL20%Nathan BoeOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB16%Ryan SeligLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMax Brosmer · PORTAL ★4 · NEW HAMPSHIREDrake Lindsey · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TETyler Williams · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIACristian Driver · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEJalen Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBEthan Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLKoi Perich · SIGNEE ★4Mike Gerald · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBSieh Bangura · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOMarcus Major · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMAFame Ijeboi · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJaxon Howard · PORTAL ★4 · LSUAdam Kissayi · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONRiley Sunram · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLAluma Nkele · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPNathan Roy · SIGNEE ★4Brett Carroll · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBMason Carrier · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MINNESOTA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
62.082 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
50.751 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
68.588 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414192052 OF 5 GRADED
RB56567671106 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE363681932116 OF 21 GRADED
OL464666731511 OF 15 GRADED
DL575777872116 OF 21 GRADED
LB494956100128 OF 12 GRADED
DB616174642416 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE68th68
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%57
RECRUITING CLASS#37 · 3/25 BC73
CLASS RANK TREND+12 · 3 CYCLES74
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 12 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MINNP.J. FLECK8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMINN OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMINNESOTA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE MINN QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS30% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMINNESOTA OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE MINN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1527% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS31% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMINNESOTA OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE MINN RUNNING BACKSn=1029% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554655%8%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMINNESOTA OFFENSESECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE MINN PASS CATCHERSn=217% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM29% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−13
−24
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.4%
60.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.4%
65.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MINN, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE