SAT 19:00 ET|NEYLAND STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U61.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
2-10
76
79
46
19%
30
99
17.5
+1100
+26.5
HOME
33
10-3
88
70
96
33%
98
55
44.0
-2800
-26.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMSST14—TENN33
CLOSED TENN -26.5TOTAL 61.5MSST COVERED · 47 POINTS · UNDER
MSST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TENN
MSST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TENN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL61.5
SPREADTENN -26.5
IMPLIED — MSST17.5
IMPLIED — TENN44.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TENNRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
TENNESSEE won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSISSIPPI STATETENNESSEE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB91%Will RogersPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMike Wright Jr.PORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE72%Lideatrick GriffinWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZavion ThomasPORTAL · LSU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin RobinsonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB71%Jett JohnsonLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNathaniel WatsonDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeShawn PageLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB70%Decamerion RichardsonDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus BanksS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShawn Preston Jr.S · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL64%Cole SmithOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick JonesOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKameron JonesOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL56%Jaden CrumedyDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNathan PickeringDT · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric TaylorNT · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB44%Woody MarksPORTAL · USC · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBlake Shapen · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORMichael Van Buren Jr. · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TECameron Ball · PORTAL ★4 · BUFFALOKevin Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEKelly Akharaiyi · PORTAL ★3 · UTEP7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBStone Blanton · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAFatt Forrest · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBoogie Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Elijah Cannon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLEthan Miner · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASMakylan Pounders · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISJimothy Lewis Jr. · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLTerrance Hibbler Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Josaiah Knight · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDavon Booth · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEXavier Gayten · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSISSIPPI STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
27.63 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
16.43 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.410 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB363668043 OF 4 GRADED
RB60607311104 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE636389192413 OF 24 GRADED
OL474766221812 OF 18 GRADED
DL343461511513 OF 15 GRADED
LB34347251129 OF 12 GRADED
DB555574662118 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE76th76
BLUE-CHIP RATIO34%82
RECRUITING CLASS#28 · 6/19 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 18 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TENNJOSH HEUPEL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSSTJEFF LEBBYFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSST OFFENSETENN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETENNESSEE DEFENSE MSST QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE MSST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1878% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE MSST RUNNING BACKSn=1089% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERS9% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558089%48%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456993%31%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTENNESSEE DEFENSE MSST PASS CATCHERSn=2481% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM48% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+40
−6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.1%
62.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.2%
50.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSST, ORANGE = TENN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE