TUE 19:00 ET|GLASS BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
4-8
15
22
39
52%
14
19
18.8
+455
+15.0
HOME
37
8-5
37
20
60
46%
46
21
33.8
-625
-15.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCMU10—TOL37
CLOSED TOL -15.0TOTAL 52.5TOL COVERED · 47 POINTS · UNDER
CMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TOL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADTOL -15.0
IMPLIED — CMU18.8
IMPLIED — TOL33.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
38FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
CMURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.1
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TOLRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
TOLEDO won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCENTRAL MICHIGANTOLEDO2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jase BauerPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON · 100% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL56%Jacques BristolDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMaurice WhiteDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuindario LeePORTAL · HOUSTON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB41%Trey Jones IIIPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLavario WileyDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarvarius SimsPORTAL · UCONN · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL39%Keegan SmithPORTAL · UCF · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeiyantei Powell-WoodsOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade KlimczakOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE39%Mitchel CollierTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus YoungTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB30%Kyle MorettiPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick ApseyLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB7%Sam HicksPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJoe Labas · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAJadyn Glasser · SIGNEE ★3Logan Borodychuk · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLQuavion Bird · SIGNEE ★2Adam Kaminski · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DBBrenden Deasfernandes · PORTAL ★3 · IOWABryce Rowe · SIGNEE ★3Tysen Campbell · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLJacob Saurbeck · SIGNEE ★3Dasan Smith · SIGNEE ★3Cohen Lantz · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
WR/TESolomon Davis · PORTAL ★3 · VALPARAISOTommy McIntosh · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINJosiah Booker · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNolan Ziegler · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEXavier White · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBBrock Townsend · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.058 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.945 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.565 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4444572453 OF 5 GRADED
RB35352499105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE333340532212 OF 22 GRADED
OL363639921813 OF 18 GRADED
DL545441781815 OF 18 GRADED
LB56563199127 OF 12 GRADED
DB414137732214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%9
RECRUITING CLASS#106 · 0/18 BC21
CLASS RANK TREND-22 · 3 CYCLES6
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 6 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TOLJASON CANDLE9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CMUJIM MCELWAIN6TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCMU OFFENSETOL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETOLEDO DEFENSE CMU QUARTERBACKSn=576% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS11% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE CMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=188% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE CMU RUNNING BACKSn=101% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS11% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554793%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSESECONDARYTOLEDO DEFENSE CMU PASS CATCHERSn=2247% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM11% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
−6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.2%
55.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.5%
72.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE4.0%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CMU, ORANGE = TOL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE