SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›AIR FORCE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|TROY CALHOUN|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
AIR FORCE65 FPIMWC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
1FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
81%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
96%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1040 BC / 47
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+9.7
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE62
PERFORMANCE62
TALENT22
CONTINUITY81
DEFENSE47
PERFORMANCE47
TALENT20
CONTINUITY96
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
37MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HROBERT MORRIS—W 42-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9ASAM HOUSTON—W 13-371414+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15HUTAH STATE—W 39-21252020+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22ASAN JOSÉ STATE—W 45-20384242+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 49-10262222+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HWYOMING—W 34-27114242+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21ANAVY—W 17-611515+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ACOLORADO STATE—W 30-13222727+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HARMY—L 3-2314141+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AHAWAI'I—L 13-272088+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HUNLV—L 27-31145555+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24ABOISE STATE—L 19-274867670BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23HJAMES MADISON—W 31-2158686-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB24TAL11PERF24RET83ONE OWNERn=2 · 6 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ZAC LARRIERQB SERET
UNR—5864%+45—
3
JOHN BUSHAQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—3217%——
5
JENSEN JONESQB SERET
UNR—3015%——
15
BEN BRITTAINQB SERET
★2—144%——
17
CANNON TURNERQB SERET
★2—00%——
▾RB44TAL12PERF44RET88ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
EMMANUEL MICHELFB SERET
★2—8536%——
24
JOHN LEE ELDRIDGE IIIRB SERET
UNR—8029%+37—
26
OWEN BURKRB SERET
★2—6314%-6—
5
DYLAN CARSONRB SENO SNAPS
★3—6012%+38—
28
AIDEN CALVERTRB SERET
★3—528%+39—
33
JET HARRISRB SERET
UNR—141%-31—
27
KADEN CLOUDRB SENO SNAPS
★3—60%——
10
JALEN JOHNSONRB SERET
UNR—60%——
8
KADE FREWRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
34
DARIUS STONERB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
30
KALE GIBBSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
17
KALEB KILLIANRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
TERRENCE GISTRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE47TAL53PERF58RET88ONE OWNERn=4 · 7 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
CALEB RILLOSTE SERET
UNR★39882%-30EMERGED
81
JAMES BRYANTTE SERET
UNR—5815%——
21
CADE HARRISWR SERET
★2—5528%+28—
2
BRANDON ENGELWR SERET
UNR—5221%+35—
23
DANE KINAMONWR SERET
UNR—5019%+36—
13
JARED ROZNOSWR SENO SNAPS
★2—4716%——
11
WYATT WILSONWR SERET
UNR—4313%——
82
CONNOR MCINTEETE SERET
★2—211%——
18
QUIN SMITHWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—193%——
88
BRUIN FLEISCHMANNTE SENO SNAPS
★2—141%——
87
PARKER MENEFEETE SENO SNAPS
★2—111%——
4
KENDIN ALEXANDERWR SERET
UNR—101%——
25
TYLOR LATHAMWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
6
CAMERON BREIERWR SERET
★2—00%——
89
PARKER ST. JOHNWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
EVAN RAUWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
DYLAN EVANSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
JORDAN SCARBROUGHWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
CHANCES CARTER-HILLTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
10
TRE ROBERSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL59TAL24PERF59RET84n=7 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL51TAL16PERF51RET88n=7 · 7 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸LB60TAL25PERF60RET97n=4 · 11 METRICS · 29 OBS
▸DB62TAL20PERF62RET97n=7 · 6 METRICS · 42 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANTHONY WENSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KYLE CHENHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KESHON SINGLETONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEVIN JORDANHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BLAKE FLETCHERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HOUSTON HENDRIXHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIROSHI CARRHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BRADY PHILLIPSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
AIDEN HERRINGHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
RYAN HENNINGHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROCKY BEERSFLORIDA INTERNATIONALTEUNR★3
ISAAC COCHRANELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
TD BLACKMONELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
VINCE SANFORDELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
CHRISTOPHER HERRERAELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
EIAN CASTONGUAYELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
MICHAEL MACK IIELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
BRAD ROBERTSELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
KALAWAI'A PESCAIAELIGIBILITY UPGUNR—
KYLE PATTERSONELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES71%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS68%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#104NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 47 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8079COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
08 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST27% BACK27th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG27% BACK27th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR84%84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR83%83th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST97%97th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE