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HOME›TEAMS›APP STATE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
SUN BELT|SHAWN CLARK|—RECORD6-6|CONF—
APP STATE66 FPISBC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
33FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
15%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#830 BC / 16
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN+8.2
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE81
PERFORMANCE81
TALENT25
CONTINUITY15
DEFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT28
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HNORTH CAROLINA—L 61-63896565-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10ATEXAS A&M—W 17-14987272-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HTROY#19W 32-28356767-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HJAMES MADISON—L 28-3256262-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HTHE CITADEL—W 49-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 8ATEXAS STATE—L 24-36362323+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HGEORGIA STATE—W 42-17384040+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HROBERT MORRIS—W 42-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
10NOV 3ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 28-35304848+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12AMARSHALL—L 21-28315555-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HOLD DOMINION—W 27-14281919+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 48-51223333+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB65TAL2PERF65RET97ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CHASE BRICEQB SERET
★3★38697%+10HELD
18
RYAN BURGERQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3162%—HELD
11
BRADY MCBRIDEQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★381%+1EMERGED
7
DC TABSCOTTQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
15
CONNOR BARRYQB FRTRUE FR
UNR★300%—EMERGED
16
DAVID HERNANDEZQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB64TAL40PERF64RET77ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
NATE NOELRB SERET
★3★37726%+28HELD
6
CAMERUN PEOPLESRB JURET
★2—7626%+29—
4
DAETRICH HARRINGTONRB SERET
★3—6919%+7—
3
AHMANI MARSHALLRB SENO SNAPS
★3—6819%+11—
4
ANDERSON CASTLERB SERET
★3★3476%+25HELD
2
KANYE ROBERTSRB JUNO SNAPS
★2★2374%+39HELD
34
BRADLEY DAVISRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—50%——
▾WR/TE71TAL33PERF70RET77ONE OWNERn=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
HENRY PEARSONTE SERET
★3—9250%+17—
13
CHRISTAN HORNWR SERET
★3—8124%+27—
6
DASHAUN DAVISWR JURET
★3★27520%+21FELL
2
KAEDIN ROBINSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37318%+24EMERGED
81
MILLER GIBBSTE SERET
UNR—7225%-6—
9
CHRISTIAN WELLSWR JURET
★3★36412%+27HELD
8
DALTON STROMANWR SERET
★3—6411%+36—
20
TYLER PAGEWR SENO SNAPS
★3—609%+18—
87
ELI WILSONTE SERET
★3—5613%-19—
85
DAVID LARKINSTE SENO SNAPS
★3—5210%——
12
MICHAEL HETZELWR JURET
UNR—515%-17—
89
AUGUST DREWSTE SORET
★2—141%——
11
COEN SUTTONWR JURET
★3★2130%—FELL
33
PETER HENNIGANTE FRRET
UNR—101%——
82
JAQUAN LOWMANWR FRTRUE FR
★3★2100%—FELL
21
ELIJAH JOHNSONWR SORET
UNR—70%——
35
GERRY SNYDERTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—40%——
80
AJ HALLWR JURET
UNR—00%——
6
KANEN HAMLETTTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
MILAN TUCKERWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
88
JACOBY PINCKNEYWR JURET
★4—00%——
21
REECE LARSONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL75TAL19PERF75RET53n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL37TAL33PERF37RET90n=9 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB66TAL20PERF66RET64n=10 · 11 METRICS · 66 OBS
▸DB48TAL30PERF48RET71n=6 · 6 METRICS · 31 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SANTANA HOPPERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DONOVAN SPELLMANHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JAMES EDWARDSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MARKUS CLARKHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DJ BURKSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
OMARI PHILYAWHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KANEN HAMLETTHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
RYAN BURGERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DERRELL FARRARHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JOSIAH WYATTHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT22 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TOMMY DAWKINSELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
CALEB SPURLINELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
T.D. ROOFELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
MIKE EVANSELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
KAIDEN SMITHELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
BAER HUNTERELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
COREY SUTTONELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
JACOB HUESMANELIGIBILITY UPQB★2—
JUSTIN ISLERELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
JALEN VIRGILELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#83NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8348COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST67% BACK67th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG67% BACK67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR53%53th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST71%71th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE