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● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›ARIZONA STATE›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
BIG 12|HERM EDWARDS|—RECORD8-4|CONF—
ARIZONA STATE39 FPIB12 · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
82FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#485 BC / 14
BC RATIO
29%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+8.8
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
44MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HSOUTHERN UTAH—W 41-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 11HUNLV—W 37-10221212+69BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18ABYU#19L 17-27326666+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HCOLORADO—W 35-13662020+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2AUCLA—W 42-23846969+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HSTANFORD—W 28-10831919+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16AUTAH#12L 21-35788888-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30HWASHINGTON STATE—L 21-34565757+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HUSC—W 31-16933838+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13AWASHINGTON—W 35-30883636+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20AOREGON STATE—L 10-24666666+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27HARIZONA—W 38-15511414+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
JAYDEN DANIELSQB SERET
★4—00%——
16
TRENTON BOURGUETQB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
ETHAN LONGQB JURET
★3—00%——
15
DAYLIN MCLEMOREQB SORET
★3—00%——
10
FINN COLLINSQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
12
NATHAN MANNINGQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET97NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
DANIYEL NGATARB SERET
★4★300%—FELL
1
CHIP TRAYANUMRB SERET
★4★300%—FELL
23
DEONCE ELLIOTTRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
44
CASE HATCHFB SERET
★2—00%——
3
RACHAAD WHITERB JURET
UNR—00%——
9
GEORGE HART IIIRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
JACKSON HERB JURET
UNR—00%——
24
NOAH VELLARB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
LV BUNKLEY-SHELTONWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
86
CURTIS HODGESTE SERET
★3—00%——
22
BRYAN THOMPSONWR SEPORTAL · UTAH
★3★300%—HELD
3
GEORDON PORTERWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
1
RICKY PEARSALLWR SERET
★3—00%——
6
ELIJHAH BADGERWR SERET
★4★400%—HELD
1
ANDRE JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
14
JOHNNY WILSONWR JURET
★4—00%——
17
CHAD JOHNSON JR.WR SORET
★4—00%——
12
JALIN CONYERSTE SENO SNAPS
★4★300%——
87
JOHN STIVERSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
82
JUSTIN COLLINSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
18
JAKE RAYTE SORET
★3—00%——
2
LONYATTA ALEXANDER JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
19
CADE CADAMWR SERET
★3—00%——
35
MEKHI METCALFWR SORET
★3—00%——
85
RYAN MORGANTE JURET
★3—00%——
20
GIOVANNI SANDERSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
12
JALIN CONYERSTE FRTRUE FR
★4★300%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH JOHNSONHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
TOMMI HILLHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
EZRA DOTSON-OYETADEHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
LONYATTA ALEXANDERHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JAYDON WILLIAMSHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
RJ REGANHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
FINN COLLINSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ERIC GENTRYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
AUSTIN BARRYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ISAIA GLASSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRYAN THOMPSONUTAHWR★3★3
JALIN CONYERSOKLAHOMATEUNR★3
TRAVEZ MOORELSUWDE★3★3
TRISTON MILLERNORTH CAROLINAOT★4★3
MATTHEW POLA-MAOKANSAS STATEDLUNR★3
CHANDLER FINCHERTCUCB★3★3
XAVIER STEELEMASSACHUSETTSOLB★2★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT2 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
FRANK DARBYNFL DRAFT R6WR★3—
ALEXANDER RANDLENOT LISTEDDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#48NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
5OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8734COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
718 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST97% BACK97th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG97% BACK97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
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