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● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›ARKANSAS STATE›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
SUN BELT|BLAKE ANDERSON|—RECORD8-4|CONF—
ARKANSAS STATE87 FPISBC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
38FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#880 BC / 20
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
30MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HSOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE—W 48-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 8AALABAMA#2L 7-5799100100-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15ATULSA—W 29-20221818+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22HUNLV—W 27-20311919+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 21-28103333+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 9HAPP STATE—L 9-35207878-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HGEORGIA STATE—W 51-353144+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27ALOUISIANA—L 43-47262828+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 38-14301010+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10ACOASTAL CAROLINA—W 44-1691111+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17HUL MONROE—W 31-17121919+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24ATEXAS STATE—W 33-791212+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
LOGAN BONNERQB SERET
★2★300%—ROSE
15
JUSTICE HANSENQB SERET
UNR—00%——
10
CARSON COATSQB SERET
UNR—00%——
12
ROSS TRAILQB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET60NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
JAMAL JONESRB SERET
UNR—00%——
29
DONOVAN MARSHALLRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
2
ARMOND WEH-WEHRB SERET
UNR—00%——
6
WARREN WANDRB SERET
UNR—00%——
35
ALEX ROBERTSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
34
MARCEL MURRAYRB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
28
DJ CHATMANRB JURET
UNR—00%——
18
RYAN GRAHAMRB JURET
UNR—00%——
23
CAM DAVISRB SERET
★4—00%——
42
KAMERON WHITERB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
40
CADE GARTMANRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
OMAR BAYLESSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
17
DARVEON BROWNWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
REED TYLERTE SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
4
DAHU GREENWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
8
BUBBA OGBEBORWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
BRANDON BOWLINGWR SERET
★2★200%—HELD
9
JONATHAN ADAMS JR.WR SERET
★2—00%——
5
KENDRICK EDWARDSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
KIRK MERRITTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
JAVONIS ISAACTE SERET
★2★200%—HELD
18
JUSTIN MCINNISWR SERET
UNR—00%——
BUBBA OGBEDORWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
AVERY JOHNSONTE JURET
UNR—00%——
80
ROSS PAINTERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
15
EUGENE MINTER JR.TE SERET
UNR—00%——
17
LEROY DESHAZORWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
PRESTON JOHNSONWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
JIMMIE JACKSONTE —RET
UNR—00%——
40
CONNOR HAAGWR —RET
UNR—00%——
16
FULLER CHANDLERWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
GAVIN CASEBIERWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
9
JONATHAN ADAMS, JR.WR —RET
★2—00%——
80
JAKE WALKERTE —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NATHAN PAGEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JAX GASAWAYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JEVON JONESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DONOVAN MARSHALLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TERRY HAMPTONHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
ANTONIO FLETCHERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEMETRICE HOLLIDAYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JEMARCUS BURRELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JADEN HARRISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DETRAVION GREENHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT20 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH CURRYELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
CHRISTIAN HOWARDELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
CHAUNCEY MASONNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
MARK JOHNSONNOT LISTEDDBUNR—
JA'VON ROLLAND-JONESNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
DIJON PASCHALNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
DEE LINERNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
JOHNSTON WHITENOT LISTEDRBUNR—
BEN GALLAGHERNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
CLIFFORD THOMASNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#88NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8115COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST74% BACK74th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG74% BACK74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE