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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2019 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|MIKE NEU|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
BALL STATE88 FPIMAC · 2019 SEASON
TALENT
13FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1250 BC / 17
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.4
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
34MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HINDIANA—L 24-34628383-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HFORDHAM—W 57-29————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 31-41465252-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ANC STATE—L 23-34742727+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 27-20241212+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 29-23122222+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HTOLEDO—W 52-14341212+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HOHIO—L 21-34156363-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 5AWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 31-35353131+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 44-45283535-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AKENT STATE—L 38-41111919+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HMIAMI (OH)—W 41-27182222+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET29NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
DREW PLITTQB SERET
★3—00%——
4
JOHN PADDOCKQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
17
HANK HUGHESQB JURET
★2—00%——
10
ELLIOT CHARLEBOISQB JURET
UNR—00%——
14
EDDIE SCHOTTQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
13
MARK NONDORFQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
CAM GILLENTINEQB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET34NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
MARKICE HURT JR.RB SORET
★2—00%——
20
WALTER FLETCHERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
8
CODY RUDYFB SERET
UNR—00%——
2
CALEB HUNTLEYRB SERET
★3—00%——
24
WILL JONESRB SERET
UNR—00%——
30
TYE EVANSRB SORET
★2—00%——
45
JIMMIE BOSOFB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
JACKSON KURTHRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
22
MARKICE HURT JR.RB —RET
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
HASSAN LITTLESWR SERET
★2—00%——
13
JORDAN WILLIAMSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
81
KYLE SCHRANKTE SERET
UNR—00%——
86
RILEY MILLERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
11
JUSTIN HALLWR SERET
★3—00%——
12
ISAAC JAMESWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
1
ANTWAN DAVISWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
MALIK DUNNERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
NOLAN GIVANTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
4
TREVOR HOHLTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
6
YO'HEINZ TYLERWR SERET
★3—00%——
88
DYLAN KOCHTE SERET
★2—00%——
83
LUKE ENDSLEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
13
BRENNAN GILLISWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
JAYLEN FLEMMONSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
WES OBERMEIERTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
47
MITCHELL CARTERTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
44
JACK MCCRACKENTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
JALEN MCGAUGHYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
21
JACKSON LANTZWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
10
DERIN MCCULLEYWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
CHRIS CROTHERSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
83
CAM GILLENTINEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
RJ HARTWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
10
DEAN TATEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
48
ISAIAH DUNNUCKTE SERET
UNR—00%——
47
BLAKE CARROLLWR —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JALEN MCGAUGHYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RAHMON HARTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NIC JONESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SOLVAUHN MORELANDHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
BRANDON BERGERHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
TAVION WOODARDHS RECRUITWDE★3UNR
CLAYTON COLLHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
EDDIE SCHOTTHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
DERIN MCCULLEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MARK NONDORFHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT14 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMES GILBERTKANSAS STATERBUNRUNR
SEAN HAMMONDS JR.STONY BROOKDEUNRUNR
RILEY NEALVANDERBILTQBUNRUNR
LAMAR ANDERSONSAMFORDS★3UNR
JEREMIAH JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPILB★2—
COREY LACANARIAELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
DEVIN REECEELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
FRED SCHROEDERELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
MARC WALTONELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
JOSH MILLERELIGIBILITY UPCB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#125NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8010COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
34TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
7
6
6
9
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.8 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED15 OF 34
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST48% BACK48th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG48% BACK48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR29%29th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE