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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|MIKE NEU|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
BALL STATE126 FPIMAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
14FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1120 BC / 21
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs3.0-9.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-14.8
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT40
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE2
PERFORMANCE2
TALENT26
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
43MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
2SEP 7HMISSOURI STATE—W 42-342———NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14AMIAMI#18L 0-62919393-87BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 34-37151111-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AJAMES MADISON—L 7-63137070-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 42-45312222-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AKENT STATE—W 37-35900+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AVANDERBILT—L 14-24646262-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 25-23103838-32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 5HMIAMI (OH)—L 21-27204949-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12ABUFFALO—L 48-5193535-29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HBOWLING GREEN—L 13-38174343-37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AOHIO—L 21-42115353-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB32TAL44PERF32RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
KADIN SEMONZAQB JURET
★3★39598%+20HELD
15
AIDAN LEFFLERQB JURET
★2—141%——
1
KIAEL KELLYQB SERET
★3★3111%-44HELD
6
CHASE HARRISONQB SOPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★300%—HELD
4
COLIN BLAZEKQB SORET
UNR—00%——
9
BODIE DERRERQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB50TAL56PERF50RET7ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
BRAEDON SLOANRB SEPORTAL · EASTERN KENTUCKY
UNR★39460%+14EMERGED
4
TJ HORTONRB JURET
★3—538%-25—
32
CHARLIE SPEGALRB SERET
★2★2436%-15HELD
24
CHRISTIAN DAVISRB FRRET
★3★3364%-62HELD
24
JALEN ALEXANDERRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
27
CODY MIKULICHRB FRRET
★2—00%——
37
AYDEN EWINGRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL62PERF49RET69ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TANNER KOZIOLTE SERET
★2★49853%+20ROSE
7
CAM PICKETTWR SERET
★3★39230%-2HELD
5
QIAN MAGWOODWR SERET
★3—8423%-28—
86
CHRISTIAN ABNEYTE SERET
★3★38331%-40HELD
2
MALCOLM GILLIEWR SERET
UNR★38121%-14EMERGED
0
JUSTIN BOWICKWR SEPORTAL · EASTERN ILLINOIS
UNR★46711%+35EMERGED
86
TYCE FERRELLTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—6515%——
82
DAHYA PATELWR JURET
UNR—545%+20—
10
TY ROBINSONWR SERET
★3★3484%+17HELD
11
ISAIAH THACKERWR JURET
★3—382%——
8
NICK MUNSONWR JURET
UNR—362%-54—
10
JAMARION MCDOUGLEWR SENO SNAPS
★3—261%——
45
MAX SULLIVANTE SORET
★3—171%——
19
NICK PRESLEYWR SERET
★2—150%-63—
83
ELI HOHLTWR JURET
UNR—110%——
44
MAXIMUS WEBSTERTE SORET
★2—70%-43—
87
JACKSON CONSTANTINETE JURET
UNR—00%——
36
JEFFREY SIMMONSTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
10
RJ MUKESWR JURET
★3—00%——
17
TREY FIRESTONEWR SOPORTAL · PURDUE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
3
TY CURRANWR SONO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
86
PRESTON ROSSTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
81
LEO COLLINSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
85
KAM ANTHONYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
89
LANE KINGTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL59TAL23PERF59RET97n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL28TAL26PERF28RET43n=7 · 7 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸LB36TAL19PERF36RET94n=9 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB34TAL30PERF34RET51n=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SAM FEENEYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DJ WILLIAMSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
XAVIER DAHNHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ZACH BANDYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JORDAN DAVISHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
RYAN ELDRIDGEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DANTU GARDNER JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JORDAN SUGGSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
GRANT HAWORTHHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BRADY BARROWMANHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRAEDON SLOANEASTERN KENTUCKYRBUNR★3
CHASE HARRISONMARSHALLQB★3★3
RILEY TOLSMAHILLSDALE COLLEGEDLUNR★3
KY MONTGOMERYMISSOURIDLUNR★3
MYLES NORWOODNEW MEXICO STATECBUNR★3
LUKE DALTONCINCINNATIOT★3★3
JUSTIN BOWICKEASTERN ILLINOISWRUNR★3
GEORGE UDOCINCINNATIS★3★3
YASER AL-AWADIWESTERN ILLINOISOT★3★3
TREY FIRESTONEPURDUEWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
COREY STEWARTPURDUEOL★2★3
JORDAN RILEYKANSAS STATES★2★3
TAVION WOODARDBOISE STATEDE★3★3
MARQUEZ COOPERSAN DIEGO STATERB★3★3
KYRON MIMSLOUISIANADL★3UNR
COLE PEARCEELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
ALJAREEK MALRYELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
SIDNEY HOUSTON JR.ELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
TYLER POTTSELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
LOREN STRICKLANDELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES59%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS31%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#112NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8096COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1116 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST56% BACK56th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG56% BACK56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST51%51th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE