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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|DAVE ARANDA|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
BAYLOR59 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
75FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
82%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#364 BC / 21
BC RATIO
17%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.5
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE82
PERFORMANCE82
TALENT73
CONTINUITY82
DEFENSE64
PERFORMANCE64
TALENT69
CONTINUITY75
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HAUBURN—L 24-38917979-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6ASMU—W 48-45828484-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HSAMFORD—W 42-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HARIZONA STATE—L 24-27775656-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AOKLAHOMA STATE—W 45-27651111+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HKANSAS STATE—W 35-34667070-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ATCU#25L 36-42777373-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ACINCINNATI—L 20-41475959-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HUCF—W 30-3694444+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HUTAH#14L 28-55699595-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AARIZONA—L 17-41528080-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HHOUSTON#22L 24-31537171-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB50TAL89PERF50RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
SAWYER ROBERTSONQB SERET
★4★39999%+16FELL
12
NATE BENNETTQB JURET
★3—201%——
11
WALKER WHITEQB FRPORTAL · AUBURN
★4★300%—FELL
17
CADE TESSIERQB SERET
★2—00%——
15
EDWARD GRIFFINQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB53TAL87PERF53RET43ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 26 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
30
BRYSON WASHINGTONRB JURET
★3★49442%+19ROSE
11
CADEN KNIGHTENRB SONO SNAPS
★4—8531%-9—
23
MICHAEL TURNERRB SONO SNAPS
★4—7218%+16—
27
JOSEPH DODDSRB FRRET
★3★3557%-44HELD
20
JACOREY WATSONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—161%——
29
JOSEPH HAGMANRB SERET
UNR—00%——
35
DAWSON PENDERGRASSRB SERET
★3—00%+28—
39
WILSON ESEME IIIRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE65TAL74PERF63RET72ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
34
JOSH CAMERONWR SERET
UNR—10031%+16—
6
ASHTYN HAWKINSWR SERET
UNR★39828%+18EMERGED
19
KOLE WILSONWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
UNR★39222%+8EMERGED
1
MICHAEL TRIGGTE SERET
★4★38858%+38FELL
85
MATTHEW KLOPFENSTEINTE SERET
★3—7231%-22—
16
KOBE PRENTICEWR SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★37110%+25FELL
3
JADON PORTERWR JURET
★3—585%-18—
4
LOUIS BROWN IVWR SEPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
★3★3523%+11HELD
87
LAKELSEY JOHNSON JR.TE SERET
★3★3519%-17HELD
18
TAZ WILLIAMS JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—341%——
82
CODY MLADENKATE JURET
★3—201%——
87
ASHTON JONESWR SONO SNAPS
★3—150%——
86
HAWKINS POLLEYTE SERET
★3—141%——
18
TYLER KIRKWOODWR SEPORTAL · SOUTHERN
★3★300%—HELD
43
BRODY WILHELMTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
21
MICHAEL JOHNSON JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
36
RYNE SHACKELFORDWR SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★300%—HELD
84
CHASE COLLIERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
SETH WELLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
80
JACKSON BAIRDWR JURET
UNR—00%——
89
DANIEL EDENIWR JURET
UNR—00%——
32
BRODY DAYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL65TAL69PERF65RET82n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL38TAL67PERF38RET62n=9 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB26TAL75PERF26RET85n=7 · 10 METRICS · 29 OBS
▸DB58TAL70PERF58RET82n=11 · 8 METRICS · 63 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KALEB BURNSHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
MICHAEL TURNERHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
KAMAURYN MORGANHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
CADEN KNIGHTENHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
TAZ WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACKSON BLACKWELLHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DEMETRIUS BRISBONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BO ONUHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JACOREY WATSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LEO ALMANZA JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WALKER WHITEAUBURNQB★4★4
KOBE PRENTICEALABAMAWR★4★3
EMAR'RION WINSTONOREGONEDGE★3★3
DEVIN TURNERNORTHWESTERNS★3★3
CALVIN SIMPSON-HUNTOHIO STATECB★4★3
ADONIS FRILOUXTULANEDL★3★3
CALDRA WILLIFORDTENNESSEE TECHCB★3★3
TYLER TURNEROREGONS★4★3
TRAVION BARNESFLORIDA INTERNATIONALLB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
COREY GORDONLOUISVILLES★3UNR
TREY WILSONSMUDE★3★3
ALVIN EBOSELEHOUSTONOL★3★3
KAIAN ROBERTS-DAYUTSADL★4★3
RICHARD REESESTEPHEN F. AUSTINRB★3★3
DEQUAN FINNMIAMI (OH)QB★3★3
JAQUES EVANSCOLORADO STATELB★3★3
DOMINIC RICHARDSONTULSARB★3★3
BRENDAN BETTFLORIDADL★3★3
JADEN MARONENLAMARLBUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES24%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS33%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#36NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8712COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2317 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST93% BACK93th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG93% BACK93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR82%82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST82%82th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE