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HOME›TEAMS›BOISE STATE›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
PAC-12|SPENCER DANIELSON|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
BOISE STATE55 FPIPAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
42FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
97%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
76%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#621 BC / 26
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-4ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+8.4
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE37
PERFORMANCE37
TALENT52
CONTINUITY97
DEFENSE62
PERFORMANCE62
TALENT54
CONTINUITY76
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
52MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28ASOUTH FLORIDA—L 7-34567979-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 5HEASTERN WASHINGTON—W 51-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AAIR FORCE—W 49-3704141+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HAPP STATE—W 47-14431919+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ANOTRE DAME#10L 7-28949797-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HNEW MEXICO—W 41-2554747+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HUNLV—W 56-31645959-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24ANEVADA—W 24-3141515+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HFRESNO STATE—L 7-30355151+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ASAN DIEGO STATE—L 7-17386969-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HCOLORADO STATE—W 49-213499+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28AUTAH STATE—W 25-24184242+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 5HUNLV—W 38-21645959-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 13AWASHINGTON—L 10-38749191-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB47TAL27PERF47RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
MADDUX MADSENQB SERET
★3—8466%+22—
14
MAX CUTFORTHQB JURET
★2—7234%——
16
KALEB ANNETTQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
15
ZEKE MARTINEZQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB60TAL57PERF60RET72ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
DYLAN RILEYRB JURET
★3—9539%+21—
26
SIRE GAINESRB SORET
★3—8932%+18—
23
MALIK SHERRODRB SEPORTAL · FRESNO STATE
★3★38628%-5HELD
1
JAMBRES DUBARRB JURET
★3—90%+13—
34
GREG ARDRB FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
▾WR/TE46TAL53PERF45RET96ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
MATT LAUTERTE SERET
★3—9947%+17—
3
LATRELL CAPLESWR SERET
★3—9828%+4—
88
MATT WAGNERTE JURET
★3—9639%+6—
6
CHRIS MARSHALLWR SERET
★5★39021%-11FELL
3
CAM BATESWR JURET
★3—8418%-22—
13
CHASE PENRYWR SERET
★3★37915%+23HELD
82
BEN FORDWR SERET
★3—7111%+35—
96
LUKE VOORHEESTE SERET
UNR—598%——
86
AUSTIN TERRYTE SERET
★3—504%-40—
25
QUINTON BROWNWR SONO SNAPS
★3—493%——
83
QUMONTE WILLIAMS JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—452%——
17
DEMETRIC WHITLOCK JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—291%——
17
AJ JONESWR FRTRUE FR
★3—271%——
45
TROY GRIZZLETE SORET
★2—221%——
87
MITCH BOTHWELLTE SERET
UNR—171%——
46
CARTER KUCHENBUCHTE FRTRUE FR
★3—40%——
47
KADEN ANDERSONTE SORET
★3—00%——
89
KOBE YOUNGWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
KAMRYN JONESWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
84
GAVIN PACKERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
27
KAYDEN CHANWR JURET
UNR—00%——
49
AJ MAESWR JURET
UNR—00%——
▸OL59TAL50PERF59RET100n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL54TAL43PERF54RET60n=7 · 7 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸LB47TAL40PERF47RET91n=8 · 11 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸DB53TAL74PERF53RET72n=11 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GREG ARDHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
JADEN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JA'BREE BICKHAMHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
GAVIN PACKERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TAHJ CRUTCHFIELDHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KAMRYN JONESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
QUMONTE WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BETHEL IMASUENHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BOL BOLHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JOSIAH ALANISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
STERLING LANE IIARIZONAEDGE★4★3
DEREK GANTER JR.EASTERN WASHINGTONSUNR★3
JADEN MICKEYNOTRE DAMECB★4★3
MILES WALKEROHIO STATEOT★3★3
DION WASHINGTONHAWAI'IDL★2★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANDREW SIMPSONNORTH CAROLINALB★3★3
PRINCE STRACHANUSCWR★3★3
MALACHI NELSONUTEPQB★5★3
GABE TAHIRIDAHO STATES★3★3
AHMED HASSANEINNFL DRAFT R6DE★3—
ASHTON JEANTYNFL DRAFT R1RB★3—
BEN DOOLEYELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
SEYI OLADIPOELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
RODNEY ROBINSONELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
HERBERT GUMSELIGIBILITY UPNT★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES76%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS48%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#62NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8491COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1219 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST55% BACK55th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG55% BACK55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST72%72th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE