SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›BUFFALO›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|LANCE LEIPOLD|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
BUFFALO75 FPIMAC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
23FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1360 BC / 11
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs9.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.1
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
28MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HDELAWARE STATE—W 48-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 8ATEMPLE—W 36-29455454-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 35-28143434+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22ARUTGERS—W 42-13571717+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HARMY#19L 13-4273636+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 34-243466+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13HAKRON—W 24-62088+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20ATOLEDO—W 31-17424949-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 30HMIAMI (OH)—W 51-42353939-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 6HKENT STATE—W 48-141844+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14AOHIO—L 17-52155959-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ABOWLING GREEN—W 44-142533+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 29-30373232+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET74NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
TYREE JACKSONQB SORET
UNR—00%——
6
KYLE VANTREASEQB YRRET
★3—00%——
12
KOLSTON BREWSTERQB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET98NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
24
JOHNATHAN HAWKINSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
29
EMMANUEL REEDRB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
DYLAN MCDUFFIERB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
2
THEO ANDERSONRB JURET
★3—00%——
26
JARET PATTERSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
5
KEVIN MARKSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
K.J. OSBORNWR SERET
UNR—00%——
15
GEORGE RUSHINGWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
9
DOMINIC JOHNSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
TITO OVERTONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
83
ANTHONY JOHNSONWR SERET
★3—00%——
81
TYLER MABRYTE SERET
UNR—00%——
82
RODNEY SCOTT IIIWR FRRET
★3—00%——
88
DAJUAN HUDSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
ZAC LEFEBVRETE SERET
★2★200%—HELD
1
ANTONIO NUNNWR SERET
★2—00%——
85
JULIEN BOURASSATE SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
44
JAKE MOLINICHTE SERET
UNR—00%——
8
JOVANY RUIZ-NAVARROWR SERET
UNR—00%——
15
CHARLIE JONESWR YRRET
★2—00%——
84
ANDREW GRAYTE SERET
UNR—00%——
27
STEVEN SHOEMAKERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
30
JOSH GRIFFENWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
3
DANIEL LEEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
17
BERNARD PORTERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
LEVI SHETLERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
CARLTON TODDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
MATT MCCARTHYTE —RET
UNR—00%——
38
AYORINDE IDOWUWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
18
JOSHUA GADDYWR —RET
UNR—00%——
47
AMEER CLARKWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EDDIE WILSONHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
DYLAN MCDUFFIEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CORY GROSSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
LEMARO SMITHHS RECRUITWR★2UNR
DAN FEDORHS RECRUITOT★2UNR
MATT MYERSHS RECRUITPRO★2UNR
MAX MICHELHS RECRUITILB★2UNR
MIKE NOVITSKYHS RECRUITTE★2UNR
TYLER LEROUXHS RECRUITOT★2UNR
COLE BURNISONHS RECRUITTE★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DREW ANDERSONMURRAY STATEQB★3UNR
KAMERON PICKETTSTONY BROOKRB★3UNR
JARRETT FRANKLINNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
CHRIS FORDNOT LISTEDDTUNR—
JAMARL EILANDNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
JACOB MARTINEZNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
DEMONE HARRISNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
ISHMAEL HARGROVENOT LISTEDLBUNR—
RYAN WILLIAMSONNOT LISTEDSUNR—
MICHAEL FORMANNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#136NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 11 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7820COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST81% BACK81th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG81% BACK81th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR74%74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE